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How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river

10-10-2009 , 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNixon
If you call the turn, folding the river would have been mondo-******o.

At least you weren't *that* bad.

Turn lead is still wtf, because your hand is a bluffcatcher.
I agree with you after looking back on the hand. Completely.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-10-2009 , 09:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nathan
****ing awesome imo
We know you are, but how about that river call? LOL
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-10-2009 , 09:54 PM
if you're going to be a dick and completely ignore the advice of multiple players who are better than you and stubbornly defend your incorrect move like a 12 year old then please gfto because this crap does not belong in a strategy thread.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-10-2009 , 10:08 PM
Why you should shove pf:

pfr equity = 39.655 against 77+, A5s+, KJs+, A6os+, KJos+ (16% hands)

EV = 0 = 2CEM - CM - CB + B + 1
0 = 2C(.39655)(17) - C(17) - C(3) + 3 + 1
-4 = C(2*.39655*17 - 17 - 3)
-4 = C(-6.5173)
.614 = C where C = (.16/pfr) therefore -> .614 = .16/pfr -> pfr = .16/.614 -> pfr = 26.06% for this to be EV neutral so if villain's preflop raise % is > than 26.06% its +EV.

if he was min raising it would need to be

0 = 2C(.39655)(17) - C(17) - C(2) + 2 + 1
-3 = C(-5.5173)
.54 = .16/pfr - > pfr = 29.63% for this to be EV neutral so anything > 29.63% and its +EV

as played check/call the flop/turn/river

EDIT: again this is according to TNixon
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-10-2009 , 10:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by starrazz
I cannot believe that the consensus is to shove with A5s when villain has shown strength by raising and 14.48% of random hands beat ours. You obviously can't let the button push you around when you hold an ace so you're not folding but if you reraise all-in such a wide range OOP, you're going to get burned a LOT.
You did not mention preflop tendancies at all. If his raising range is that narrow, yes I fold preflop.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-10-2009 , 11:43 PM
What I meant is that villain is only calling with hands that beat you. Like, if you turned your hand face up and he saw you had A5s, he'd call with all hands better (all pairs, and all Aces better than A5) and fold all worse -- that's the range I pasted. Of course, since he he can't see your hand, he may fold better (A6o, A7o, etc.) and call worse (KQ, KJ, etc.) -- and thus your equity when called is, on average, MUCH higher than the worst case range that I posted.

The key is that villain raised to 120 with a stack of 1020. He's raising to 3x with ~25 BB effective stacks. I made a thread on almost this exact topic a while back. Villain just put almost 12% of his stack in, and that's a large chunk if he folds. Which, given that villain is "typical" according to you, it seems he's not going to be snapping you off with a ton of hands. Now, if he raised to 80, not 120, calling might be better.

Again, though -- how often he raises preflop is really important to make this decision.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-11-2009 , 12:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lamdun
if you're going to be a dick and completely ignore the advice of multiple players who are better than you and stubbornly defend your incorrect move like a 12 year old then please gfto because this crap does not belong in a strategy thread.
I don't know if you misinterpreted my sincere posts for sarcasm. I'm going to have to ignore your posts from now on if you can snap at someone like this so easily.

Last edited by starrazz; 10-11-2009 at 12:34 AM.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-11-2009 , 12:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hince
You did not mention preflop tendancies at all. If his raising range is that narrow, yes I fold preflop.
I didn't mention his preflop tendencies. I had no read on him. I would not fold preflop even if he was the little old lady from Pasadena. The consensus on this thread is that standard operating procedure is to shove all-in with ace-rag in response to a button raise. I am surprised and respectfully disagree with that consensus, but I do appreciate folks explaining their rationale and I did learn from others' perspective. We're just not always going to agree, that's all. Agreed I slaughtered the flop and turn LOL.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-11-2009 , 12:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Insane_Steve
What I meant is that villain is only calling with hands that beat you. Like, if you turned your hand face up and he saw you had A5s, he'd call with all hands better (all pairs, and all Aces better than A5) and fold all worse -- that's the range I pasted. Of course, since he he can't see your hand, he may fold better (A6o, A7o, etc.) and call worse (KQ, KJ, etc.) -- and thus your equity when called is, on average, MUCH higher than the worst case range that I posted.

The key is that villain raised to 120 with a stack of 1020. He's raising to 3x with ~25 BB effective stacks. I made a thread on almost this exact topic a while back. Villain just put almost 12% of his stack in, and that's a large chunk if he folds. Which, given that villain is "typical" according to you, it seems he's not going to be snapping you off with a ton of hands. Now, if he raised to 80, not 120, calling might be better.

Again, though -- how often he raises preflop is really important to make this decision.
Ahhh, thanks for taking the time to explain. I totally get what you're saying. I will sometimes shove in this situation whereas before I never would, so I adjusted my game play at least somewhat to what I learned here and from you in particular. Thanks again.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-11-2009 , 09:26 PM
had i seen this hand, i would report you for dumping chips
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-11-2009 , 11:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chip10Leader
had i seen this hand, i would report you for dumping chips
And Bom Dia to you too sir
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-11-2009 , 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by starrazz
I didn't mention his preflop tendencies. I had no read on him. I would not fold preflop even if he was the little old lady from Pasadena. The consensus on this thread is that standard operating procedure is to shove all-in with ace-rag in response to a button raise. I am surprised and respectfully disagree with that consensus, but I do appreciate folks explaining their rationale and I did learn from others' perspective. We're just not always going to agree, that's all. Agreed I slaughtered the flop and turn LOL.
Why do you disagree? What benefit do you get from calling? There are pretty good arguments for shoving and the only reason I see you given sounds like "I has A high".
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 03:30 AM
Well I just don't agree that ace rag is a high enough quality hand to get away with this as routine operating procedure. Certainly it's situational and you want to shove with less than a monster sometimes or you are too predictable. But if this is standard, then villain will pick up on that and pounce when he gets a top ten percent hand, which crushes my ace rag, needless to say. That's why I disagree. The benefit of calling is that I probably have the best hand and can outplay my opponent postflop, and I have the powerful weapon of check-raise. Nothing wrong with calling and check-folding the flop. That's how you build respect for the check-raise or donk bet later. I totally am not trying to change your mind, that's just my rationale and it's an opinion, which along with $3 will get you a venti latte.

I understand full well the power of position, and am resigned to be deferential and weak out of position. Shoving here just results too often in only a better hand calling us, I'm afraid.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 03:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Why you should shove pf:

pfr equity = 39.655 against 77+, A5s+, KJs+, A6os+, KJos+ (16% hands)

EV = 0 = 2CEM - CM - CB + B + 1
0 = 2C(.39655)(17) - C(17) - C(3) + 3 + 1
-4 = C(2*.39655*17 - 17 - 3)
-4 = C(-6.5173)
.614 = C where C = (.16/pfr) therefore -> .614 = .16/pfr -> pfr = .16/.614 -> pfr = 26.06% for this to be EV neutral so if villain's preflop raise % is > than 26.06% its +EV.

if he was min raising it would need to be

0 = 2C(.39655)(17) - C(17) - C(2) + 2 + 1
-3 = C(-5.5173)
.54 = .16/pfr - > pfr = 29.63% for this to be EV neutral so anything > 29.63% and its +EV

as played check/call the flop/turn/river

EDIT: again this is according to TNixon
You lost me at 2CEM. I only have a doctoral education so I didn't quite follow ya.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 03:46 AM
lol you're such a joke I find it so funny.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 04:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by starrazz
Well I just don't agree that ace rag is a high enough quality hand to get away with this as routine operating procedure. Certainly it's situational and you want to shove with less than a monster sometimes or you are too predictable. But if this is standard, then villain will pick up on that and pounce when he gets a top ten percent hand, which crushes my ace rag, needless to say. That's why I disagree.
And that's why you're wrong. A4s doesn't fare horribly against a top 10% hand (39% equity), and if he's folding that much (and still raising a standard 70% or so), it's pretty extreme +EV.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by starrazz
You lost me at 2CEM. I only have a doctoral education so I didn't quite follow ya.
Actually, he kinda lost me, and I think I wrote the equations he's using.

How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 04:51 AM
Oh yeah, but hey, that poohbah post 11t referenced has a table showing that it's neutral EV to 3bet shove even A2o if villain is minraising 60%, as deep as 25bbs, *even if they call perfectly*, which nobody ever does, and in reality, you often get called by quite a few hands that you're ahead of.

A4s can go as deep as 36.9 bbs, and a 3x raise rather than a minraise makes it even more profitable (because there's more to steal the times he folds).
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 05:04 AM
OK I kinda get it now. Thanks.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 05:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by starrazz
OK I kinda get it now. Thanks.
Oh yeah, and just flatting puts you in really funky spots where you want to lead with a bluffcatcher.

Even if shoving isn't the most +EV play (that totally depends on the player obv), there's something to be said for making the hand easy to play, and A4 is going to put you in a lot of tricky spots where it's very likely that you have the best hand, but you have to fold anyway, or never knowing where you're at when you flop a piece.. For a really long time I didn't put any stock in the idea of making plays that *might* be slightly less EV simply to make the hand easier to play, but I'm coming around to it, and shoving is definitely +EV enough.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 05:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNixon
Even if shoving isn't the most +EV play (that totally depends on the player obv), there's something to be said for making the hand easy to play, and A4 is going to put you in a lot of tricky spots where it's very likely that you have the best hand, but you have to fold anyway, or never knowing where you're at when you flop a piece..
if hero has A4 this hand is trivially easy to play ducy
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 05:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Insane_Steve
if hero has A4 this hand is trivially easy to play ducy
lol

so sue me for not going back to the OP. Right neighborhood.

A4 still puts you in a lot of tricky situations.

Just not on that particular flop.

How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 10:31 AM
You sure did outplay him post flop. Good rational for flatting.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote
10-12-2009 , 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by quesuerte
You sure did outplay him post flop. Good rational for flatting.
I don't know if you're leveling, but preflop analysis aside, I did save my butt from my screwed up flop and turn play by calling on the river. Maybe in all seriousness I played it so wierd that I induced a bluff from someone who thought I *couldn't* have an ace or I wouldnt have played it the way I did. But I'm not patting myself on the back for it.
How to screw up the flop, turn, AND river Quote

      
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