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How Much Variance? How Much Variance?

11-17-2008 , 10:06 PM
I'm down six buy-ins at NL25 over the past two days and 2k hands. It seems pretty crazy. I can remember two hands where I messed up, one set-over set and one set over two-pair that I felt like I should have folded but called anyway, but other than that, I can't remember any giant mistakes. When I look at my stats for the past two days, I don't know where I went wrong.

Code:
VP$IP	PFR	W$WSF	WTSD	W$SD	AF	AFq	3Bet	Fold 3B
6.99	3.78	29.1	18.28	57.14	4.55	32.5	1.78	76.74
Is this downswing to be expected, or have I just lost my mind?
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11-17-2008 , 10:08 PM
Loosen up
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11-17-2008 , 10:10 PM
2k hands you say ?
small sample .. super standard
gl
edit :
and def loosen up

Last edited by railgun; 11-17-2008 at 10:11 PM. Reason: didnt see stats ; /
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11-17-2008 , 10:12 PM
You will have much worse downswings than that. Cheer up.

Btw, you are a nit.
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11-17-2008 , 10:12 PM
Heh. I do realize that I'm a nit. At this level it seems like it's the way to go. Am I wrong about that?
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11-17-2008 , 10:14 PM
Nah, nitting it up works at 25nl, but i found pounding the crap out of people in position and cbetting almost everythin vs the nits totally owned it.
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11-17-2008 , 10:15 PM
Your villains finally have enough hands to know you are a nit. When you are playing 7/4 poker, it is pretty easy to figure out by the turn what you have and whether you hit or not.

When you open up, open up in late position. You aren't stealing blinds nearly enough.

Autist18 is right. You'll have worse downswings than this.
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11-17-2008 , 10:16 PM
I have been running ~21/~19 lately at NL25, and I am doing quite OK at the moment.

I think there are many ways to go, as long as you are doing your way correctly.
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11-17-2008 , 10:31 PM
don't be a nit...i can't even imagine playing 7/4 ..

If you have any prospects of moving up learn to play position and learn to play real poker. The stickies are a good place to start as are most member videos

On the flipside I could see playing like 9/7 and 24+ tabling to be one of the most profitable ways of playing 25nl..not that I could ever play like that

2k hands -6 buyins is bad but your gonna see much longer downswings that last 10k or more hands eventually. Love it, embrace it and play through it. Downswings don't actually exist every hand is an independent event. I firmly believe that the psychological impact of losing is what spurs so called downswings more so then anything else. Trust in the math and focus on playing your A game rather than on how much your up or down.
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11-17-2008 , 10:34 PM
I'm confused how your fold to 3bet is 75% but you only raise 4% of your hands
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11-17-2008 , 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
I'm confused how your fold to 3bet is 75% but you only raise 4% of your hands
Because if I raise AQ (in position) or AK and then get raised and re-raised by another nit, I'm outta there.
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11-17-2008 , 11:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Providence
I'm down six buy-ins at NL25 over the past two days and 2k hands. It seems pretty crazy. I can remember two hands where I messed up, one set-over set and one set over two-pair that I felt like I should have folded but called anyway, but other than that, I can't remember any giant mistakes. When I look at my stats for the past two days, I don't know where I went wrong.

Code:
VP$IP	PFR	W$WSF	WTSD	W$SD	AF	AFq	3Bet	Fold 3B
6.99	3.78	29.1	18.28	57.14	4.55	32.5	1.78	76.74
Is this downswing to be expected, or have I just lost my mind?
you're winning practically every hand @ showdown, which is great... but i've found that bringing 25% to showdown and winning half is still a winning ... since you bloat your strong hands to win bigger pots... and ditto to the other guys. bankroll management is key. I've lost 10BI in 1 day before. it hurts.... gl
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11-17-2008 , 11:37 PM
u are losing because u are easily readable. that nitty and ur very easy to play against. loosen up from late position and steal and cbet with ur eyes closed and ull show a lil better results just from the fact that now ur a lil more unreadable.
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11-17-2008 , 11:40 PM
Definately loosen up. Raise more in the CO and on the button when its either 1 limper or folded to you and you will see that it is really easy to just to cbet the flop and take it down. But, since you are on this 6 buyin downswing. I would take a break for a little bit because it could really negatively affect the way you play. Take like a week off.
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11-18-2008 , 12:16 AM
I remember when I made one of these threads. It was over 7BI's though, not 6

Trust me, it will get worse. Just grind through it.
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