Villain is 50/16/0.95/175

Post session review so dunno if I had any table notes, nor if there was something special about my or his table image at the time. I guess my question here is....Whatsup with the high vpip in his raising/calling range here.....If this is a situation where I see a set 100% I want to know, and I want to know why.

Here goes:

$0.1/$0.2 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO HokusDonkus ($13.70)
BTN Hero ($35.72)
SB plescanp ($19.70)
BB flecktor ($68.83)

Pre-flop: ($0.30, 4 players) Hero is BTN A A
HokusDonkus calls $0.20, Hero raises to $1, plescanp calls $0.90, flecktor calls $0.80, HokusDonkus calls $0.80

Flop: 4 9 8 ($4, 4 players)
plescanp checks, flecktor bets $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6, plescanp folds, flecktor raises to $10, Hero goes all-in $28.72, flecktor calls $24.72

Turn: 6 ($73.44, 2 players)

River: 5 ($73.44, 2 players)

Could be a set (44,99,88). Could be 89, A9, A8, TT+.

Using that range pokerstove looks like this.

45,540 games 0.080 secs 569,250 games/sec

Board: 4h 9s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.022% 72.98% 01.04% 33237 472.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 25.978% 24.94% 01.04% 11358 472.50 { 88+, 44, A9s-A8s, A9o-A8o }

Given that he led out and didn't check raise you I think you are against an over pair here.

50/16, and we have aces. I'm never getting away. If you lose I'm pretty sure you can chalk it up to a cooler against a guy playing half his hands.

You also need to include hands like KsTs+, QsTs+, JsTs, 6s7s, I think.

I found from my own experiences that these kind of spots are almost always a set or two pair. I mean he bets into PFR, you raise, he comes over the top again. And seeing his aggrofactor, his high vpip. It's very likely that he has hit this flop pretty hard. Im getting away here, and I think getting it in here is so bad. If you do this every time you will never get any higher. I've been in similair situations so many times, and especially against this guy you are just so likely to see him flip over a set.

Those are PRE-flop numbers. Now we're POST-flop, and the world is a very different place.

Villain has a 0.95 aggression factor and he just donkbet into hero in a four-way pot on a wet board and then min-threebet when it got back to him. It's awfully hard to put him on a weak hand, here. It's hard to say what I find scarier: a passive opponent donking into three opponents including a preflop raiser, the same passive opponent three-betting, or the fact that his three-bet was a min-threebet.

It's safe to say this is never a draw -- passive players simply don't play draws this fast. The only remaining question is, how lightly will this guy play a hand this hard? I get the feeling that he's not three-betting A8 or A9. Against a range of "98, 44, 88+" we're a 60/40 favorite. However, I think even THAT range is too loose when we're talking about what he calls a four-bet all-in with. Sure, he's a drooler, but is he drooly enough to call a push with TT? Maybe....but even if he calls with his entire three-betting range it's still a fairly thin push. And if he folds just TT and JJ, this becomes a -EV push for us.

I think I'd probably wait one more street to get the money into the middle. I think the turn will be a better opportunity for us. I also think that on most turn cards villain will tell us a great deal about his hand strength by his turn play: if the turn card is an overcard and villain CONTINUES to fire, folding might be best, because this guy's not betting out TT or JJ on a board of 498/Q. Also, if a spade hits or an overcard hits and villain slows down we're probably in really good shape: villain will still call our push but we're much more likely to be ahead.

I want the extra information from a turn card and I don't want to be getting it all in with a FOUR-bet. If villain fires again on the turn -- especially on a "scary" non-spade turn -- I'm trusting him and getting out of his pot. (On a spade turn I've got to call a push just because I've now got redraws to a winner that give me sufficient chasing odds.)

Gold, I think this is one of the times where if you analyze every move logically, it makes much more sense to put villain on a monster, and seems unreasonable to put him on any crap. Thing is, even if he plays half his hands, I think I realized with this post and the replies that the post-flop can be very different....in other words, he is aggro with weaker holdings, but this is A++ aggressiveness right there...

Also, I learned from this post :
http://http://archives1.twoplustwo.c...0#Post11853136
that Fishes are more aggro with weaker holdings, and the a agg factor of 1 is more aggro the higher the vpip...although this notion is young in my head...i still need to grasp it more thoroughly

Well I know some about poker percentages, but are we really a 60/40 favorite on this kind of board, when he has one of those hands?
Anyone who can calculate that?

Edit, Um PokerStove can.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,474,207 games 6.209 secs 237,430 games/sec

Board: 4h 9s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.909% 58.95% 01.11% 869088 16408.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 40.091% 39.08% 01.11% 576164 16408.00 { 88+, 44, 98s, 98o }

Well i did some myself with pokerstove. And i think putting 1010 or higher in his range is not a real possibilty. With his pfr of 16 over 175 hands I think he would raise it up preflop everytime if he had 10s or higher. I think the chances he has 10s are so low, they are not even worth the risk. + you are pretty deep


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

17,820 games 0.005 secs 3,564,000 games/sec

Board: 4h 9s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.758% 20.76% 00.00% 3699 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 79.242% 79.24% 00.00% 14121 0.00 { 99-88, 44, 98s, 98o }

yeah AF is grossly misused in uNl/SSNl and 175 hands isn't huge either

you have an overpair on a drawy board against someone really bad

never fold

This range is absurd. Of course we're behind all of the hands that, um, we're behind.

So what's the range you put him on then?

I'm not sure, but you have his range as every single hand that beats us and precisely zero that don't. That's virtually never right. We also don't know how often he 3-bets, which is a lot different than open-raising. If I had to guess, I'd say 44, 88-JJ, KsTs+, QsTs+, JsTs, 89s, 89o, 6s7s.

i'm not folding this. fwiw even passive fish play combo draws fast, and this guy is probably never getting away from TT.

Passive fish are not playing combo draws agressively imo.
And that's a huge part of the range you think he might have.

I think the discussion here is about the assumption that villain will either play his draws aggro, or not. All we have is the vpip, and 1 agfactor on his vpip is pretty aggro.

I still think that the draws out there do not re-raise me on this flop, he is telling me he has a made hand. On those tables, I am like the only one that could consider the possibility of bluff re-raising someone AI, and it aint that guy...so I dont think hes putting me on a bluff...even if he is his call to my AI dont make sense then.

I am reading that hes a fish, so i should never fold(basically) but this is just too much straight aggression to say Oh, he has an overpair? 2p sets are more than likely, draws do not re-raise my flop action...bluffs never happen - So ima go with pokey, and simply call instead of shoving and see what happens on the turn.