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Highest EV line with effective nuts vs. large surprise donk from tight player Highest EV line with effective nuts vs. large surprise donk from tight player

11-22-2021 , 02:16 PM
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
UTG ($151.04)
HJ ($100)
CO ($114.12)
HERO ($141)
SB ($144.90)
BB ($98.84)

Dealt to Hero: 9 9

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $2, HERO Raises To $7.50, SB Calls $7, BB Folds, CO Calls $5.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.54 effective]
Flop ($23.50): 5 9 7
SB Checks, CO Checks, HERO Bets $7.37 (Rem. Stack: $126.13), SB Calls $7.37 (Rem. Stack: $130.03), CO Folds

Turn ($38.24): 5 9 7 3
SB Bets $27.25 (Rem. Stack: $102.78)

I'm running slightly hot at this table with a 7/35 3-bet over 90 hands. I'm 4/8 with 3-bets from the BTN, so I may be perceived as a bit wild. SB is running 17/10/6 over 90 hands, with pretty low post-flop aggression (3/15)
Highest EV line with effective nuts vs. large surprise donk from tight player Quote
11-22-2021 , 02:22 PM
I'm leaning raise due to the potential action killing nature of a lot of rivers here. Draw completing cards shouldn't really be a threat to anyone but that's not often how they are perceived. If an ace peels off and he has JJ (very likely) you may not get paid. The only question is if we jam or click back. I think I like click back just for the lols.
Highest EV line with effective nuts vs. large surprise donk from tight player Quote
11-22-2021 , 06:27 PM
Easy jam
Highest EV line with effective nuts vs. large surprise donk from tight player Quote
11-24-2021 , 04:23 PM
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
UTG ($151.04)
HJ ($100)
CO ($114.12)
HERO ($141)
SB ($144.90)
BB ($98.84)

Dealt to Hero: 9 9

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $2, HERO Raises To $7.50, SB Calls $7, BB Folds, CO Calls $5.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.54 effective]
Flop ($23.50): 5 9 7
SB Checks, CO Checks, HERO Bets $7.37 (Rem. Stack: $126.13), SB Calls $7.37 (Rem. Stack: $130.03), CO Folds

Turn ($38.24): 5 9 7 3
SB Bets $27.25 (Rem. Stack: $102.78), HERO Raises To $126.13 (allin), SB Folds

Spoiler:

UTG shows: K 9
HJ shows: 6 Q
CO shows: A J
SB shows: 2 2
BB shows: 6 2

HERO wins: $88.74
Highest EV line with effective nuts vs. large surprise donk from tight player Quote
11-24-2021 , 04:38 PM
Wonder why he chose that turn card to donk on. That's what makes poker so tricky, people do things that I guess makes sense to them but don't make sense to me, therefore I don't even account for it when playing.
Highest EV line with effective nuts vs. large surprise donk from tight player Quote

      
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