Have I missed value on river? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Have I missed value on river?

View Poll Results: What bet?

Overbet all-in

7 46.67%

Overbet not all-in

1 6.67%

Raise pot

2 13.33%

Raise 70% of the pot

5 33.33%

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10-01-2009 , 10:59 AM

wmermus

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,082

I am new to the table. ~10 hands through. I overbet river hoping smb would have a 2 pair+ and put me on a missed spades draw or just calls..... it seems I scared them away. Would you bet smaller?

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): $10.10
BTN: $4.47
SB: $5.67
BB: $4.38
UTG: $1.38
UTG+1: $10.00
MP1: $1.93
MP2: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with 6

UTG calls $0.05, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.05, BTN calls $0.05, SB calls $0.03, BB checks

Flop: ($0.25) A

(5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, BTN folds, SB calls $0.10, BB calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.65) K

(4 players)
SB bets $0.20, BB folds, UTG calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

River: ($1.25) 8

(3 players)
SB bets $0.20, UTG calls $0.20, Hero raises to $9.75 all in, SB folds, UTG folds

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10-01-2009 , 11:05 AM

SaberTJ

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 3,946

If either of the villains were making real bets on the turn or river I can see shoving this river like you did, but both villains seem weak to me. I'd put in 70% of the pot.

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10-01-2009 , 11:10 AM

Brocktoon

Unreada Bill

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 8,674

I like it, especially at this level with an A,K and Q on the board. I'm pretty sure all-in has the higest EV of any play, despite that fact that it folds out the most hands.

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10-01-2009 , 11:10 AM

davidoffbeat

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 73

I think your thought process should be reversed, you should be betting smaller and hoping someone calls with A7 or A8, considering everyone limped, it's not likely anyone had AK or AQ so most people would fold a low 2 pair to such a large bet.

I doubt anyone calls this unless they have a smaller flush or hit a set of 8's on the river.

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10-01-2009 , 11:12 AM

Brocktoon

Unreada Bill

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 8,674

Quote:

I doubt anyone calls this unless they have a smaller flush or hit a set.

Any 2 pair and a lot of Aces are calling at this level. The other 2 players are no where near as deep as OP either.

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10-01-2009 , 11:22 AM

Joopjan

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,996

Its a limped pot and if someone has a really strong hand they are reraising anyway. I dont really see the point in overbet shoving here since its going to get folds alot and in the case you dont get a fold you might as well have raise a normal amount.

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10-01-2009 , 11:34 AM

wmermus

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,082

OK, let me rephrase the question: does SB call 1 time out of 4?

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10-01-2009 , 11:42 AM

Chillypill

banned

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,122

raise all in is allways the best on river with the nuts

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10-01-2009 , 12:03 PM

imfromsweden

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 10,152

no?

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10-01-2009 , 12:04 PM

#10

Panik

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 470

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brocktoon

I like it, especially at this level with an A,K and Q on the board. I'm pretty sure all-in has the higest EV of any play, despite that fact that it folds out the most hands.

I kind of agree with this, as I see any ace probably calling you, and any 2pair definitely calling you. If they both missed and those 2 weak bets were attempts to steal (which I think there were) these guys are folding to any bet, so what the hell shove and hope one of them calls your "bluff."

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10-01-2009 , 12:06 PM

#11

stranglylucid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,588

I don't have much expereince with overbetting, but I would say that a raise to $1 gets called most of the time (say 75%). So the profit on this is about .60

So the question becomes how often is the SB calling the overbet? If the small blind calls the overbet 15% of the time, then we are making a more money on the overbet.

I would guess that in this particular situation betting small will be more EV. If they both had bigger stacks, then I think maybe the overbet.

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10-01-2009 , 12:22 PM

#12

KY_Poker

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 238

Shove the river at this limit with the nuts = big profits.

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10-01-2009 , 12:26 PM

#13

pierrot_lune

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 388

an overbet at NL10, is good, most of the time everyone will fold but you will be paid often enough to make this play ev+. You will even be surprised by the hand that called your shove.

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