After having a long debate with a few people I'm convinced that people don't have a firm grasp on hand reading and identifying ranges. People blindly fire at people with no concept of whether they are bluffing or value betting. Let's look at a hand I played recently.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $96.50
SB: $186.50
BB: $209.15
UTG: $227.05
Hero (MP): $120.75
CO: $114.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with [Xx Xx]
UTG raises to $3, Hero raises to $9.50, 4 folds, UTG calls $6.50


First we will discuss his range and what he is trying to accomplish. A little history: I have been running somewhere around 27/24 with 9% 3 bet and 3 betting his CO and button opens quite frequently. He is running 24/20 and hasn't played back at me yet and hasn't been flatting when I 3 bet from the SB.


Okay on to the hand. I have asked a bunch of people of what they think his defending range is here and a lot of people have given me mixed results. Some say 'Oh he's finally getting tired and will defend wide'. They have included hands like AJ/KJs/etc. I say no to that since he hasn't been playing back CO vs Button or Button vs SB. I believe this really limits his range to 99-JJ/AQs almost entirely. We can however make a case that he believes we are strong since we are 3 betting his UTG open. For the sake of this argument we will include all pocket pairs in his range under the assumption that hes defending because he thinks we are strong which I think is reasonable. I would still however slightly discount 22-88 and QQ+ just because he won't be flatting 22-88 all the time and with QQ+ he will be 4 betting a decent amount. Occassionally he will defend a hand like KQs but not very often because it plays very poorly against a strong range out of position in a 3 bet pot when he is UTG. We will not be barreling off on the cards that give him top pair unless we of course have a better top pair or an overpair to his top pair.


Now that we have defined his range we will go through the streets.

Flop: ($20.50) 5 6 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Flop is uninteresting, he checks which I expect him to do about 100% of the time and I check it back.


Turn: ($20.50) J (2 players)
UTG bets $13, Hero calls $13

Now we start getting into ranges and hand reading. He leads into the turn which he will probably be doing with almost his entire range. If he has KQs/AQ he will probably bluff the turn to get us to fold AK. He will also bet AQcc which has picked up a flush draw. Most of his range however consists of pairs or sets. 55-77 is betting for value and so is JJ. 88-TT is a little more tricky, he will bet these a decent amount of the time for both protection and also for thin value against any weak pair (pair of 5s, 6s, or 7s) we might have as well as draws. QQ+ will also bet this turn for value.


River: ($46.50) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $34

In the villains eyes my air is essentialy gone on the river besides a very few combos of 8x. He doesn't have to worry about being pushed off the best hand by a bluff because there are so few combos in my range. When he bets the river here it is for value almost every time. When the PFR checks back this flop and then calls a turn bet he has showdown value. Every once in a while the villain might try to turn his AQ into a bluff to fold out our weak 1 pair hand and you know what, congrats if he does that because AQ is such a small part of his range. 88-TT are essentially bluff catchers at this point. If he is bluffing with AQ and value betting with 88-TT than he is just igniting money. Both of those ranges are both targeting the exact same hands, he can't have it both ways. I see a lot of people making this mistake, they told me he was value betting these hands on the river, but was also bluffing with overs a ton. It is just illogical. This is what I meant before when I said people will blindly fire with no clue if they are value betting or bluffing and it just leads to spewing money all over the place. 55-77 and JJ of course will bet the river because they have a set and they are targetting my entire range since I appear to have showdown value. QQ+ will also be betting for the same reason. AQcc is now the nuts and will obviously bet.


River: ($46.50) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $34, Hero raises to $98.25 all in

So now we have narrowed his river betting range to almost exlusively 55-77, JJ+, AQcc with the occassional AQ bluff thrown in (but I wouldn't expect him to have AQ here very often). This is a terrible turn of events for the villain. He has to know that we know his range is super strong after he bets big on the river which makes this an awful bluff spot against 99% of people. What hands can I possibly value shove in his eyes on this river given the action throughout the hand? If his range is sets and overpairs than I really can't shove very wide for value here. 2 pair hands would bet the flop most of the time based on our assessment of his pre flop range which consists of mostly over pairs to a 7 high board. I would want to get as much money in as soon as possible before over cards come out to his over pair and also before a 3,4,8,9 peel off and put a 4 straight on the board to kill action. For this same reason my strong pocket pairs, QQ+, will also be betting the flop most of the time on this board against a villain who has a strong range. It is much better to attempt to get him to stack with an overpair than to try and get 1 street of value by him bluffing the turn with AQ. If for some reason we take a line where we check the flop with 2 pair or a big overpair and don't raise the turn then our river shove with these hands is extremely thin in my opinion. How often can we expect him to look us up with QQ,KK, or AA especially after the backdoor draw hits which is definitely in our range after we check back the flop and call the turn bet? It seems weird to call a river bet with hands like 2 pair or AA and not shove but if you think about it, it makes perfect sense. By shoving 2 pair hands we are targeting exactly QQ-AA which I have already slightly discounted being in his range. And his mind he should have already discounted us having a 2 pair hand on the river. By shoving AA we are targeting an even narrower range of QQ and KK. That is a pretty narrow range to expect a bet/call on.


I know this is a lot of rambling, but let me know what you guys think. I probably will never make a long ass post like this again haha

first

sick, strat post by subs

good read. the comments on hand reading are very good. i don't know how much i should comment on this hand because i feel really results oriented doing so

3th

sorry

Pretty much the only sentence in the entire post I disagree with

very good post subs

im definitely open to discuss that point if you want

Not really sure how to respond tbh. Nice post and good analysis btw.
I don't think villain is bet/folding for value ever, and if he is then it's a small % of the time. He could easily be bluffing a lot here but it depends on how he plays ofc. You look weak when you cb the flop and he might be trying to get you to fold 88-TT or Jx.
His pfr range can easily include all pp's imo, and some hands with high card value like KQ that want to hit top pair and let you bluff it off.

Ok i read it, I don't get it. What exactly are you saying?

He can have a J, he can def have QQ+ (I don't see how you discount any combos of AA/KK), hell never fold them.

He's asking what hands can we possibly have to raise this river bet.
Cliffs we have either a flush (maybe straight) or air and never AA etc.
And we never have air. So he should bet/fold unless he has flush.

thanks this is very good

OK. Yea its pretty obvious we are never bluffing. He wont bet/fold though.

Sick post subs and thorough analysis.
What reasons and with what ranges are we checking behind the flop?

He should be doing this alot more often than you guys think( only the top of his value range can consider calling and he's still bluffcatching), and on quite a few other river cards too i think.
I really don't think his preflop ranges are wide like that either(PP, weak broadways) if he's even close to decent then he'll know that these ranges are terribad vs a player as good as subs.

I don't want to be unconstructive but what your saying is that he has a strong range for calling preflop, bets 100% of that range on the turn, SHOULDN'T be betting a large % of his range on the river, and when he bets has a strong range/air . BUT IN reality he is prob donking around betting most of his range which contains alot of hands that are medicore

but he knows you know his range is strong so will be b/f all but the nuts because you can have the nuts?

you are representing clubs, 22, and bluffs for your hand. If you had a straight, set, or two pair you wouldve bet the flop, raise the turn, or only called the river. Same with 55-77. The only reason I could see you raising 22 on the river is because you spewed because you just hit your card (even though clubs just hit their cards too)

Its hard to put him on a hand because his line is sort of stupid. If he decided to defend with a wide range here, he wouldve either 4 bet, or bet the flop. Check fold/check calling the flop with a hand like KJ isnt much defense. Maybe he did this, but with the call preflop, and the check on the flop, I think its more likely he called with a more standard range.

so id put him on 88+, AQ+ (88 and 99 less likely because sometimes they get folded. QQ-AA less likely because sometimes they get 4 bet) preflop.

With the flop, im sort of confused, because I could see betting almost the whole range. Overs would bet for protection, the bigger overs (JJ+) would 3 bet over a raise, 88-TT would probably fold to a raise. AQ+ you would think may try to steal the pot.

So after the check, id say AQ+ is the most likely part of his range, with 88+ still being possible (I could see him having MUBS, and with 5-7 on the flop, and suited connectors being a decent part of your range, you have hit a LOT right here)

on the turn he bets. This is where ive determined he is an idiot postflop, and I just stick with his preflop range.

You know, not everything has to be a value bet or a bluff. Let me give an example.

For simplicity's sake, the only size you can bet is pot sized bet, and you have exactly enough for a bet and a raise. Also, lets say that opponent has already seen your cards, but agrees to only check and call you.

flop comes 2 5 7, you have 99, opponent's range is overcards (60% of hands), and TT+ (40% of hands). If you bet, opponent folds all overcards, and calls with all pairs

So villan folds everything you beat, and calls with everything that beats you. Yet you have a 60% chance to win the pot, and a 40% chance to lose a pot sized bet. EV+, but is it the most EV+?

Lets say opponent checks behind the flop, turn, and river if you check, so it goes to showdown, where your equity is probably close to like 40%, and of course folds if you bet when a 9 hits.

point is, especially on the flop and turn, you can make a bet that is not for value OR as a bluff. (lol fold equity)

guys... this thread is just an exercise to get you thinking about hand ranges and hand reading... stop focusing so much on the results of this particular hand

While this is technically correct, it doesn't really change the overall analysis in the spot originally posted. Yes he can bet 88~TT for protection on the turn. Whats critical is that there is no longer anything left to protect from on the river so a bet there is always either for value or as a bluff, and there is just no reason for 88~TT to bluff. This polarizes his river range to air (little), overpairs, sets and a very few flushes.

bookmarked cause im a **** hand reader ; good to see the process involved in narrowing his range especially in 3b pots which i have a bit of trouble with., ty subs.

But you did all the work already in the OP and you were ofc spot on. So what is there left to discuss really?

I mean if you gave the reads and then just posted the hands we could discuss ranges for both players on each street, but you already analyzed the hand. And all of us are worse hand readers than you probably and you explained the thoought process, so what is left?

2+2/4=? discuss
2+2/4= 2,5 nothing to discuss.

Wait who was the Hero? haha

You are getting called by Jx a very high % of the time.

TT,99, and 88 are going to bluff catch lite a fair of the time

AA, KK that slowplayed preflop are always calling as well.


If he can hand read and thinks you are capable of doing this for value with a J, then he may not bluff catch really wide on this river. You rep a small range that is even further discounted by your flop and turn play.

Don't choke.

i lol'd