Quote:
Originally Posted by bitzu
Let's assume the pot is 100 and Villain's range is 2 combos of AA and 2 combos of QQ and we have KK only. He value bets pot size with a GTO range, meaning he bets both combos of AA and 1 QQ combo. We call 50% (GTO frequency). In this case, the EV for both Hero and Villain is 0 (Both will win half of the pot).
The guy with 2 combos of AA and 2 combos of QQ wins 3/4 of the pot, and the guy with KK wins 1/4. You correctly identified that the GTO frequenzies will be to bet AA every time, to bet QQ half the time, and to call KK half the time.
EV{AA,QQ}:
(0.75)(0.5)(1) + (0.75)(0.5)(2/3)(2) + (0.75)(0.5)(1/3)(-1) + (0.25)(0) = 0.75
EV{KK}:
(0.75)(0.5)(0) + (0.75)(0.5)(2/3)(-1) + (0.75)(0.5)(1/3)(2) + (0.25)(1) = 0.25
Formula explained:
first term: (bet %)(fold %)(EV)
second term: (bet %)(call %)(value %)(EV)
third term: (bet %)(call %)(bluff %)(EV)
forth term: (check %)(EV)
If the {AA, QQ} range decides to bet every time, the EV will still be 0.75, as long as the {KK} range keeps on only calling 50%. You don't lose EV by having wrong frequenzies with indifferent combos (QQ,KK), as long as the opponent playes GTO. In this spot, the only way to lose EV vs. a GTO opponent would be to fail to bet AA 100%.