I was reading through an article and a hand came up. I would like to link the thread but I would rather get opinions first, so I'll link the thread after a few responses.


The hand was:

No Reads, you're blind stealing with 74o folded to you on the BTN.

SB folds

BB Calls

K22 Rainbow flop.

Checked to you, you C-bet, called.

Turn is a 4 (still rainbow board).

Checked to you.

I've been debating this with a friend of mine so I can apply this to other similar scenarios. I have a feelings one side may only be marginally better then the other, so it may be a useless discussion, however here is it:

Argument #1 - This hand now has showdown value and you will only be called by hands which beat you, thus you should check behind. ATC which did not pair yet have ~13% to hit.

Argument #2 - This hand is weak and you may be able to extract value with a 1/3 pot bet from Ace high hands. You also gain value from ATC which fold which could hit on the river.

Thoughts?
Arguemtn

i'd only be betting for value at this point, and this hand isn't strong enough for that. i wouldnt bet turn even without the showdown value.

What stakes?

I'm betting this turn and turning my hand into a bluff unless I'm against some station

Ye the only reason im betting this turn is to get vill to fold mid pp type hands

The original post was uNL so we can call it that.



I'm unsure whether betting for value is enough here to make a bet. Very few worse hands will call. I think the point of the argument to bet here is the combination of the following:

1. Some worse hands May call.

There is a side argument (debate) on whether A9-AQ are showing up at this turn.


2. You don't want to offer hands like 78 a free card, as we will always be checking this behind on the river (unless we hit another 4).


3. We may get some hands incidentally like 55,66,77 to fold.


There is also a side discussion on whether 55/66/77 would fold here.



_______________


Thanks for the responses.. feel free to incorporate any of the side conversations into further answers.

Why dont we want to allow 78 a free card?

In that argument because we'll never extract money out of them if they miss. Any value with something like 78 is right here on the turn.

so erh what value is there to be hand from 78 on the turn when they have no pair draw.. hope. The only value to be had from a hand like this is checking and maybe calling off a bluff. However any1 who is still in the hand with 78 now we are def betting 4 for value

What

if im opening 74o otb its because there are nits in the blinds. If Nit bb c/c this flop he definitely has a pair and possibly a K which he wont fold, therefore im done with the hand unless I improve on the river.

wat?

No, it is not a value bet against 78, it's a protection bet. Why would we give any two cards with no draw a free card to beat us on the river?

Have you read your post?

Also, if you aren't barreling this against a nit, your decision to c-bet this flop must've been really close (which it shouldn't be)

Unless this is NL2 or w/e (that´s why I asked what stakes) there is no sane villain calling 2 barrels w/ 8 high on this board, this is why it may be better to check and risk getting drawn out (10% of the time) and hope he bluffs river if he misses.

Let´s say we´d knew he has 87o checking is > betting

Tonitto,

Do you think we'd also gain EV because we might be folding 55-99 as well as getting some value from AT-AQ?

My answer is pretty much reply # 2 and # 11 itt

I understand, but I am not saying we are extracting value from 78, I'm saying we take it down now.

I was stating we get a small amount of value from high Aces, and we get ATC which could beat us to fold + some small amount of PPs we beat to fold.

It's the combination of all these, I don't think any one of them is a good enough reason to bet.

if we don't know villain's postflop tendencies in regards to mid pp's and KQ/KJ type hands, it's much better to c/f than to even bet at all since we're just not being floated by nits with air on this flop. this board is the best example of where you should decide if you're firing just a cbet or 3 barrels imo.