Full Tilt - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 18.5 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 10)
BB: 170.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG: 218.5 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP: 90 BB
Hero (CO): 326.5 BB
BTN: 98.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, BTN raises to 98.5 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold,

Hero???

The shove screams KK+ to me...

What do people think - bad fold?

I've looked at this recently and the answer IMO: wp

If Villain only 4 bet shoves with KK+ then folding is definitely correct. We have 23.3% equity and are basically only getting 1:1 from the pot so need around 50% equity.

If he does it with QQ+ we have 35% Equity so it's a good fold.

Even against TT+, AKs, AKo, AQs we still only have 45.8% equity so it's a good fold.

I actually read his huge 4 bet shove here as AK but that's a gut feeling based on how many players at 5NL don't want to play AK postflop most of the time. Regardless I don't see how we can call.

90bb fish.... snap

It's the BTN that shoves, not the 90bb guy min raising in MP.

98.5bb fish ... snap :P

my bad for not reading HH correctly but yeah its still a call.

aces are his least likely hand IMO. More often people will raise smaller to keep you in.

I agree, but since we don't have enough equity to call anything remotely legitimate, and we have zero info on villain, aren't we just 'hoping' that he's a maniac who will do it with worse than 77+/A8s+/AKo/AKs? That's the only way we are getting better than 50% equity...

We need 45% equity to call, a standard GII range is QQ+,AK to which with AsKs (important to put in actual hand rather than AK b/c equity calcs don't remove cards unless you do) has 42% equity. Discount some AA/KK and add in a spazz factor and it's an easy call.

I'm folding. Against QQ+/AK you're never getting it in ahead.

You're essentially relying on villain been an idiot. You don't know this yet. It would take an awful player to spaz shove AQ over a 3bet. Just because his stack is a whole 1.5bb under the maximum buyin doesn't even make him a fish, let alone a huge whale who would do something like this.

If he is unknown and has only played the BB, SB and this now its an easy call.

we don't need more than 50% equity to get it in, there is lots of dead money in the pot.

how often do you see a good reg not use auto-reload and cold 4bet Jam 100bb deep?

No we've already deduced villain is an idiot from this shove. Either that or he knows something about MP that we don't which is pretty unlikely.

What we don't know however is what kind of idiot villain is. However, I'm pretty sure the population range for this actoin is nowhere close to {QQ+,AK}

I'd be more likely to discount QQ rather than AA/KK since not everyone will stack off with QQ but everyone will with AA/KK.

If villain has just joined the table, this is his first hand, and he's shoved like this, I could see a call because chance of him spazzing is high.

If he's played his BB and SB hands already and didn't do anything out of the ordinary I'd fold. You don't have any stats on him - is it his first hand at the table?

The whole point of stacking off with AK is to collect dead money during the 3bet/4bet/5bet process. It's not because you expect to be actually ahead when someone calls your 5bet. Here we can't pick up dead money so it's a fold IMO.

The fish get dealt as many premium pairs as the regs.

As for the 4bet jam, when I was playing 2nl it was reasonably common. Hell, I know when I first started playing, and was holding AA/KK, and got 3bet, or I was facing a 3bet in front of me, I'd 4bet jam for 100bb's since at the time I thought that was an appropriate bet when you were dealt those hands, and any villain who 3bet was telling you he was prepared to stack off with his hand (which isn't a bad assumption at 2nl tbh since hardly anyone 3bets light).

Also, given the rake at these levels is so high, you're going to need a fair bit more than 45% equity to make this a profitable stackoff.

I call. I mean AA seems a stretch. This line screams AK more than anything, and against a range of AQ+ JJ+ you are doing well enough. Especially when you factor in he could just be a donk. Don't think i can make the fold here. Though its definitely fairly close/

Ok. If I discount AA entirely and run AK against just QQ/KK/AKo/AKs then we have 47% equity (rounded) against that range. Better than you thought.

My calculations have us looking at a call of 98.5BB vs a Pot of 111BB.
1/(111+98.5) = 47% Equity required to call profitably.

Since that's a break even call, I can see how with the spazz factor you could make this... It does rely on being certain AA is not ever in his range though.

Sure if he'll do it with AQ+ too we can call. But just because he's not a reg, doesn't automatically make him crazy right? Wouldn't we want more info on Villain before making this call?

Why does OP show stats on all players that fold and not of the players that actually participate in the betting?

You need 47% equity, assuming 5% rake.

Agree with gamma that aces will often try and suck you in rather than use all FE available.

So call, but not of the fistpump type.

Snap

meh

but regs don't spazz out with A2o for no reason (or AQ).

We should take rake into account but calling is still correct.

I discounted 1 combo of AA, not the full 3 but sure w/e.

roughly we are calling 90 to win 110 which gives 90/200 = 45%. You forgot our 9bb 3bet is already in the pot.

edit: like gabe said including rake we are risking 90 to win 190 (200*.95) which makes 47% our equity requirement.

Even if this guy occasionally spazzes for no reason (which we really don't know and in the absence of evidence I'd rather go for the conservative approach), your edge against his total range is measured in low single digit percentages.

If this guy really is such a massive fish, there will surely be a better spot than this to take his money. And if he's not a massive fish, you'll be getting your money in as a dog.

This is such an easy call.
Mostly I expect to be flipping w 77 or AK but there will be A3s etc often enough for this to be a really easy call. And we get info.

And it will tilt me to no end if I fold now and he openshoves 4 times in the next two orbits and I would have to fold my J4o etc.

There is no waiting for better spots in cash games. There are only +Ev and - Ev spots. This is not a minus Ev spot against someone who very likely hasn't got a clue what they are doing.

Also fish have a timer on their head. The only have a limited amount of money to reload with. So even if we lose this hand and he doubles up, well now we have a big stacked fish on the table which is obviously hugely +ev for us. For that reason we should be more inclined to make break even or slightly losing plays so we can get the fishes chips before someone else does.

Also we need to count in the rake

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If this is +EV, which I'm still far from convinced on (especially after rake is considered), it's extremely thin. Not to mention it is only +EV against someone who has no clue. This 'read' that villain is a fish is based purely off him not using auto reload and a strange 4bet sizing. It's not enough for me. Even most fish don't cold 4bet when they don't have it.

And as for the fish having a timer on his head, well that's true, but given we're talking about 2nl there's a fish on every table on every poker site on the internet so we're not really in a race to get this specific fish's money.

If the action had gone--> fish raises, hero 3bets, fish 4bets all in, I might be more inclined to call since the chance the fish is spazzing is higher. But here, there's no reason for him to spaz shove with garbage. He doesn't have any money invested.