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Fold this or call? Turn re-raise with TPGK. Fold this or call? Turn re-raise with TPGK.

12-11-2013 , 12:19 AM
$5NL 6-max

Hero/UTG: $5.35
MP: $14.66
CO: $2.54
Dealer: $1.19
SB: $1.12
BB: $1.07

SB posts $0.02, BB posts $0.05

Preflop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero has A Q
UTG/Hero raises to $0.20, MP calls $0.20, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.47, 2 players) A 7 5
UTG/Hero bets $0.23, MP calls $0.23

Turn: ($0.93, 2 players) A 7 5 7
UTG/Hero bets $0.46, MP raises $2.57, UTG/Hero raises all-in $4.92, MP calls

Spoiler:
River: ($10.24, 2 players) A 7 5 7 2
UTG/Here shows A Q, MP shows A 5 , UTG/Hero wins $10.24


Preflop: I feel my bet sizing was correct, but was playing AQo from UTG a poor choice? Is this a hand I should wait for MP/LP to play?

Flop: I am thinking that I am in a good position here, I have flopped top pair with a good kicker and villain has simply called. My guess is that he has flopped top pair also, but with a fairly weak kicker, or he is on a flush draw. I discount AK as I believe preflop that would have been a 3-bet, and that he would have raised me on the flop. I also discount two pair or a set because, again, I would have expected a raise instead of a call.

Turn: I am a little worried here and am thinking I might have made the wrong choice by raising all-in on TP/GK, I am thinking a call might have been the better choice here. Because of my thinking and villain's actions on the flop, the best I can place him on right now is that he paired his Ace with a decent/weak kicker and is on a flush draw. I consider that he might have a 7 in his hand, but I really do not see him calling the flop with middle pair on that board, it's just too weak in my opinion, but the raise has me worried and re-thinking it. I thought about him having a full house with 75, but I just did not see him calling with this preflop to begin with and simply calling it on the flop as well.

So, overall, I am a bit split on my decision. On one hand, people usually have what they represent in microstakes and aren't bluffing and this should have been a comfortable and easy fold. On the other hand I feel that by my logic I ranged and narrowed his hand down correctly and made the right call. No HUD, so no stats on villain, but after about an hour and a half of play time he came off as a fairly average microstakes player. Loose, somewhat aggressive when he had something, but I did see him get caught in an earlier hand trying to rep a flush he did not have as well.

Thoughts?
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12-11-2013 , 12:33 AM
Yes, you should be happily opening this hand preflop.

Flop and turn are too small. I'd go 40 on flop letting me bet around 1.00 on the turn to set up a river shove. Go for value.

If your assumptions are right then your play is right i.e. he can't/is highly unlikely to have a better A, 7x, or 55.

That said, I wouldn't rule out any of those things and worse hands can't shove for value so I would fold unless villain is a known maniac.
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12-11-2013 , 12:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bladesman87
Yes, you should be happily opening this hand preflop.

Flop and turn are too small. I'd go 40 on flop letting me bet around 1.00 on the turn to set up a river shove. Go for value.

If your assumptions are right then your play is right i.e. he can't/is highly unlikely to have a better A, 7x, or 55.

That said, I wouldn't rule out any of those things and worse hands can't shove for value so I would fold unless villain is a known maniac.
Noted. As far as bet sizing, I have been sticking to half or 3/4 sized pot bets on flops like this or in situations where I am in the lead. My thinking is that they are more likely to call and I am still giving them poor odds for drawing hands in situations where a pot sized bet is more likely to encourage a fold. Could you explain the flaw in this thought process?
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12-11-2013 , 03:45 AM
80% of the pot on the flop. Then bet/fold 2/3 pot on the turn.
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12-11-2013 , 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Real Big Fish
Noted. As far as bet sizing, I have been sticking to half or 3/4 sized pot bets on flops like this or in situations where I am in the lead. My thinking is that they are more likely to call and I am still giving them poor odds for drawing hands in situations where a pot sized bet is more likely to encourage a fold. Could you explain the flaw in this thought process?
If people are calling a bet on the flop your sizing in a single raised pot won't have too much impact on their calling range but it will lower the pot size on later streets causing you to miss out on money. Like in this hand, he's going to call with a draw or Ax pretty much whatever you do so you should size on the bigger side for value.
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12-11-2013 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bladesman87
If people are calling a bet on the flop your sizing in a single raised pot won't have too much impact on their calling range but it will lower the pot size on later streets causing you to miss out on money. Like in this hand, he's going to call with a draw or Ax pretty much whatever you do so you should size on the bigger side for value.
That makes sense, so I'll try and start applying it to my game. Thanks for the critique.
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