Villain was playing pretty tight at 20/12-he seemed like a pretty standard TAG. On the flop I rarely move in. I feel like most villains have a pretty polarized range when they raise the flop and if I move in I'm minimizing my winnings when I'm ahead and maximizing my losses when I'm behind. So I decided to call the flop raise and turn bet and evaluate the situation on the river. When he moved in on the river, I just don't think I can think I have the winner the 31% of the time I needed to call, but I wanted to get some other opinions on this because I'm not really sure on this.


Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $48.84
BTN: $9.00
SB: $30.90
BB: $28.00
Hero (UTG): $40.17

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 4 5 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.22, BB raises to $4.75, Hero calls $3.53

Turn: ($11.30) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $6.00, Hero calls $6

River: ($23.30) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $16.40, Hero folds

what do we beat on turn?

If he's a nit I don't think he is shoving TT+ on river for value here.

If you're going to fold, fold the turn. The river changed nothing and you can't put that much of the effective stack in and then fold.

+1

get it in on the flop, or fold turn