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Flopping nuts, folding river? Flopping nuts, folding river?

04-15-2021 , 07:07 AM
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $35.70
BTN: $25.00
Hero (SB): $25.00
BB: $26.71

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has J T

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50, 2 players) 8 9 Q
Hero bets $0.44, BB raises to $1.33, Hero calls $0.89

Turn: ($4.16, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BB bets $3.32, Hero calls $3.32

River: ($10.80, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, BB bets $21.31 and is all-in, fold

BB wins $10.31

How would u guys have played this hand? Villain is a NL25 reg 25/20/9, and 12% 3-bet vs. steal.
Would you always try to go broke OTF? Since I dont see any bluffs to do that with I chose the call here ingame vs. his flop raise.
Turn is ugly, he can still have some KJ, QJ, QT, 98, but I block them and so I decided to call one barrel and give up to his 2x pot river shove... Was a bit lost OTR though. What do u guys think?
Flopping nuts, folding river? Quote
04-15-2021 , 07:29 AM
I would probably 3bet the flop. I hear you that you don't really have any bluffs. But you unblock his continuing (and coolered range), getting in the money without taking a similarly strong line on turns and rivers is going to be tough. And, there are a lot or runouts such as this one which will either improve V or slow down the action.

AP, V is saying that he has a full house. You block none of this and block his most likely bluff if he has any: T7. The main concern is that he is overplaying a naked Q. But given the flop line, that this player with his stats would likely 3bet his best Qs, and you block QJ and QT, this seems unlikely. So I would prob fold.
Flopping nuts, folding river? Quote
04-15-2021 , 07:30 AM
Do you think v might take this line with trips? If so, I think you have to call. Even if he doesn't do this with trips, his value range is straights, and fh. QQ he'd 3bet pre, and probably 99 and 88. He could have Q9o, and probably Q8o. So, ideally, you'd want a Q when calling, and you should have plenty of those.

I think the fold is a bit too nitty, but I can get behind it based on the assumption v never takes this line with trips. However, if he does take this line with trips, then a fold would be pretty bad. I think without reads, this is close but not a fold, but if you have some info on his postflop aggression, that should make you lean one way or the other.
Flopping nuts, folding river? Quote
04-15-2021 , 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pjj
Do you think v might take this line with trips? If so, I think you have to call. Even if he doesn't do this with trips, his value range is straights, and fh. QQ he'd 3bet pre, and probably 99 and 88. He could have Q9o, and probably Q8o. So, ideally, you'd want a Q when calling, and you should have plenty of those.

I think the fold is a bit too nitty, but I can get behind it based on the assumption v never takes this line with trips. However, if he does take this line with trips, then a fold would be pretty bad. I think without reads, this is close but not a fold, but if you have some info on his postflop aggression, that should make you lean one way or the other.
I just can't see that V is taking this line with trips very often at all. Likely to 3bet a lot of AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo and some KQo/QTs/Q9s. Do we really think V, with reggy stats, is going to start raising flop with his remaining bare Qs. Seems unlikely. And, then on the river, this sizing would be an overplay with a naked Q by a reg. We have to make a lot of questionable assumptions to assign V a range which is composed of a meaningful amount of bare Qs here, imo.
Flopping nuts, folding river? Quote
04-15-2021 , 07:41 AM
Imo, unless V is using at least one of 89 and T7 as a 2x pot overbet bluff and a decent this is prob a fold. We have much better calls.
Flopping nuts, folding river? Quote

      
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