Only had 44 hands on villain he was playing 38/31 over that sample

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,196)
BB ($816)
UTG ($326)
UTG+1 ($208)
Hero ($1,011)
BTN ($567)

BTN antes $0.50
SB antes $0.50
BB antes $0.50
UTG antes $0.50
UTG+1 antes $0.50
Hero antes $0.50

Dealt to Hero 6 6

fold, UTG+1 raises to $12, Hero calls $12, fold, fold, BB calls $8

FLOP ($41) 2 6 8

BB checks, UTG+1 bets $26, Hero calls $26, BB calls $26

TURN ($119) 2 6 8 7

BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $100, BB raises to $288, UTG+1 folds, Hero ?

Start by calling.... river?

If we are calling a blank river jam than shouldnt we jam turn?

calling the turn should be alright in position

jamming turn wouldn't allow him to bluff-shove the river

It would be pretty insane if he bluffshoved river.

sure but theres a ton of bad river cards that can kill the action, and its not unlikely that villain picked up some big draw and decided to be a bully. I'd rather get it in now. fwiw I think people justify calling in these types of spots thinking villain will always shove river with worse. the board is too coordinated here imo

this
/thread

This was my thoughts. So I jammed, played fine?

this is nowhere near a clear shove or continue at all. what hands that he flatted preflop do we expect to overcall the flop that he now needs to semibluff or bluff?

i think if you are continuing then yes shove because he'll be getting 2.2:1 (enough to call with 'combo' draws, likely, and unlikely he follows up on bluffs often, as has been said)

still i wonder how people post these spots without discussing their own image. you've played 44 hands with him - surely he has some read on you? what about on the opener?

considering you guys are deep i wouldn't be surprised if you're jamming into 4-5/9-T quite often since you flat-called the flop

OK reason why I didn't like shoving turn is that if he's raising for value we're beat by way more hands than hands we beat. 78 and 22 are probably at the bottom of his value raising range. 86 he would almost always raise on the flop and if he just flat isn't then raising turn after we almost pot it. I also think a lot of people aren't even raising 78 or 22 here because of the awkward spot OOP on the river on a ton of bad river cards.

He can easily have 45 and 9T here and there is also 77 and 88 in his range that beats us.

If he really does raise/call all his draws then obviously shoving is completely fine, but if he's only calling his big combo draws which is like Q9-A9h (don't see why he'd raise 8x hearts here) then I just think it's too thin.

What would river have been, assuming you just flatted turn?

He doesn't have Q9h-A9h after the flop. That would be a pretty brutal flop call.

what kind of big draw could villain have picked up after overcalling flop? This will be the nuts very often imo (or possibly 77, MAYBE slowplayed 88/22).

What is a range of hands that overcalls the flop and then raises the turn smallish when it looks like you cant have better than one pair? If you know this, the decision is easy(hint: its a clear fold)

Well looking at his stats and considering the flop bet wasn't too big it wouldn't surprise me.

But that was my point really - the only combo draws really are 8x and it doesn't make much sense for these to raise the turn.

Folding turn though is still out of the question though for those suggesting that. Would be ridiculously nitty against someone with them stats. I'd need a read that they were passive to think about folding. We're also not getting too bad odds to fill up (even tho I know sometimes we might still lose to a better boat)

ya, i guess even if u KNOW he has T9 u can still prolly call, expecting to make the 3 or 4 hundred more on average on the river when we hit (can't remember the exact math offhand, but did it in my head earlier). Not sure, though, how to factor in the chance he has 77/88 here, and how much that sways our implieds. I think it is actually pretty close, despite him being 38/31. Just cuz he is loose pre doesn't necessarily mean he's bad or superlaggy post. And villain could conceivably find a fold with a straight when board pairs and we shove, being 200bb's deep. Seems close - not sure it's really such a clear call.

(and kind of sick, too, when u call, board pairs and he shoves 500 into 700. Some players may well not just stick it in there w/ T9. 77/88 now looks much more likely. Seems pretty nitty, i guess, but I think I'm leaning toward just folding turn now. and if we're gonna plan to fold turn, which would seem more clear if he raised larger (3.5x or so), can an argument be made for just check calling instead, since T9 and 45 both got there, and there are at least 8 combos, maybe more like 20 of these straights?)

I am okay with shoving here, because 45 and 88 are about the only hands that makes sense for beating us here. There are now a significant number of two pairs out there, and also a slowplayed 22 potentially.

Can't villain also play 97 or 57 this way?

in forum world i think i fold this

Raise flop to 88

having sets is so overrated!

given preflop and flopaction, villain could very very easily have a straight here, and u'r ****ed stacking $700 with 20% EQ or something.

fold.

fold and headbutt your computer desk for not raising the flop.

Forgot T9