float turn into a hand - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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float turn into a hand

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02-18-2009 , 05:04 AM

cheer

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,375

25/19/1.3/260 cbet turn 2/2 wtsd 33% and w$sd 70%

there can't be a lot of aces in my range and he knows this but his showdown #s are scary

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 42271
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $306.10
BB: $1029.60
UTG: $400.00
CO: $529.15
Hero (BTN): $400.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with J

1 fold, CO raises to $14, Hero calls $14, 2 folds

Flop: ($34.00) Q

(2 players)
CO bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($82.00) A

(2 players)
CO bets $60, Hero calls $60

River: ($202.00) 9

(2 players)
CO bets $130, Hero?

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02-18-2009 , 05:09 AM

RollinHand

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Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,382

Call again.

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02-18-2009 , 05:24 AM

olof86

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Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 2,827

id call on a 9c, but folding the 9d vs this guy

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02-18-2009 , 05:37 AM

lnternet

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Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 12,224

looking at SD stats after 260 hands is more than just silly

I don't think he bluffs the river. He prob bets AT and maybe A8 though. Meh I'm torn but lean towards folding. Also, if his bet size is telling there, you might wanna shove.

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02-18-2009 , 06:44 AM

pFEy

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,825

I probably fold, too. I think (without stronger reads) it's likely that the turn call and then this river will scare him from 3barreling into you.

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02-18-2009 , 06:52 AM

Clever Nickname

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Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,517

Quote:

Originally Posted by pFEy

I probably fold, too. I think (without stronger reads) it's likely that the turn call and then this river will scare him from 3barreling into you.

Why would he be scared of bluffing this river? It's extremely unlikely that hero backdoored a flush or some kind of two pair here. I think you really need to call the river here, he's value-betting all his aces, most of which you're beating, and may be value-betting KQ as well. There's also a chance that he's barreling the river with air to try to get you off of a queen, which is what you're repping.

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02-18-2009 , 01:31 PM

StatusBaller

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,970

given sd stats i think i fold but not with a smile

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02-18-2009 , 01:36 PM

Nick Royale

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 29,740

Quote:

Originally Posted by StatusBaller

given sd stats i think i fold but not with a smile

He wins 70% on sd and we're getting 2.5:1. We only need to be ahead 29% thus calling is correct.

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02-18-2009 , 01:46 PM

StatusBaller

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,970

hmm good point. he needs a big hand or a bluff to really bet this river imo

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02-18-2009 , 02:04 PM

#10

Clever Nickname

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Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,517

Quote:

Originally Posted by StatusBaller

given sd stats i think i fold but not with a smile

As has been said, SD stats are basically meaningless over this sample size. Nobody wins 70% of showdowns over the long run.

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02-18-2009 , 02:43 PM

#11

bassmaster2008

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,368

call it. I think he is barrelling off too much here to fold this ginned turn.

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