Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
flat or shove? flat or shove?

01-13-2010 , 08:45 PM
36/20 over 50 50% fold to cbet 50% cbet. No reads and no 3 bets or situations where he has been 3 bet. Steal 40% steal SB 33%

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.20(BB) IPoker
SB ($18.45)
Hero ($20.74)
UTG ($22.24)
CO ($39.18)
BTN ($20.67)

Dealt to Hero 4 A

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $1.80, SB calls $1.20

FLOP ($3.60) A J 6

[color=red]SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $4
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:03 PM
Or check behind?
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:15 PM
Im betting as you.
As played im calling to maintain his bluffing range in plus we have position.
If you raise or shove you will only get called with a range that is slightly ahead of you.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:15 PM
checking behind seems like a reasonable option. You're kind of WA/WB I think? This hand is a bit weird for me because I don't personally like 3betting a hand like this pre; there doesn't seem to be a reason to really.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:16 PM
Fold pre.

I'd bet 2,50. Call the minraise for implied odds., shoving has so little fold equity and we're going to be behind.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lenny-T
Fold pre.
.
Really? He has been stealing his fair share. Axs seems like a good hand to 3 bet bluff pre IP because

a) blocker
b)tp value
c) sometimes flops a draw

Am I so out of line?

This time we flopped a draw and TP which makes it more difficult. Pure NFD I'd shove every time.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:28 PM
I agree it's a wonderful hand to 3b bluff pre IP.

I'm just saying I don't think this guy is stealing the SB liberally enough to do it here. I'd wait until we have some more info. Just 50 hands in, this 1/3 SB steal is probably just 1 out of the 3 unopened SB's he has played. I have no idea wether he's stealing the SB light yet. This guy also seems pretty fishy and unwilling to fold. I hate bluffing people who are unwilling to fold.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lumileijona
Really? He has been stealing his fair share. Axs seems like a good hand to 3 bet bluff pre IP because

a) blocker
b)tp value
c) sometimes flops a draw

Am I so out of line?

This time we flopped a draw and TP which makes it more difficult. Pure NFD I'd shove every time.
im with you, if he has a high 3bet Fold% preflop.
The problem here is BvB. 3bets from the BB are always BS hands.
To Lenny T:
What Folding % do you think we need here?
I think shoving is slightly EV+.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:31 PM
i think he has JJ or 66 100% of the time here and likely wont fold if you hit your flush, so i think that . however ur going to be barreled on the turn so if you call. either calling or shoving is fine but if u call here u have to call turn. if board pairs fold.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:34 PM
Get it in. You're ahead of his range and he only had $12 left. I think you'll get called by a lot of lower draws that would fold if you play it slower, and you're doing fine even if he has a big ace.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordDante
I think shoving is slightly EV+.
We're like 40/60 to his range.
Pot odds are like 15/37, which is basically the same. Shoving should be +EV if we have any FE whatsoever, if he's calling always it's slightly -EV due to rake.

However, I think calling and fit/folding the turn is probably more +EV.
flat or shove? Quote
01-13-2010 , 09:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lenny-T
We're like 40/60 to his range.
Pot odds are like 15/37, which is basically the same. Shoving should be +EV if we have any FE whatsoever, if he's calling always it's slightly -EV due to rake.

However, I think calling and fit/folding the turn is probably more +EV.
Board: Ad Jh 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.110% 43.96% 01.15% 12185 319.50 { Ah4h }
Hand 1: 54.890% 53.74% 01.15% 14896 319.50 { AcAd, AcAh, AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, JcJd, JcJs, JdJs, 6c6d, 6c6s, 6d6s, AcKc, AsKs, AcQc, AsQs, AcJc, AsJs, AcTc, AsTs, KhQh, KhTh, QhTh, AcKh, AcKs, AsKc, AsKh, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsJd }
I think thats a good range for his calling range
if its EV+ (once he calls) we dont need any FE.
We have an EV=+$1.99559
Even though Im not considering rake, I dont think that makes it EV-.
flat or shove? Quote
01-14-2010 , 12:09 PM
bumpy
flat or shove? Quote
01-14-2010 , 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordDante
Board: Ad Jh 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.110% 43.96% 01.15% 12185 319.50 { Ah4h }
Hand 1: 54.890% 53.74% 01.15% 14896 319.50 { AcAd, AcAh, AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, JcJd, JcJs, JdJs, 6c6d, 6c6s, 6d6s, AcKc, AsKs, AcQc, AsQs, AcJc, AsJs, AcTc, AsTs, KhQh, KhTh, QhTh, AcKh, AcKs, AsKc, AsKh, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsJd }
I think thats a good range for his calling range
if its EV+ (once he calls) we dont need any FE.
We have an EV=+$1.99559
Even though Im not considering rake, I dont think that makes it EV-.
I think shoving is definitely +EV here.

It's just hard to tell how to compares to calling. Just because one think is +EV, doesn't mean another thing can't be more +EV. Like holding the nuts on the river, calling is going to be majorly +EV, but it's better to raise. I'm not argueing this shove is +EV, I just think calling may be more +EV. I'm not really sure though.

Couple things to note about the range you're giving him:

Quote:
{ AcAd, AcAh, AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, JcJd, JcJs, JdJs, 6c6d, 6c6s, 6d6s, AcKc, AsKs, AcQc, AsQs, AcJc, AsJs, AcTc, AsTs, KhQh, KhTh, QhTh, AcKh, AcKs, AsKc, AsKh, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsJd }
He flats the 3b pre with AA? 2 AA combo's in there that are impossible.

In general though, I think this type of player would usually play his draws differently(c/c or lead small). And basically only do this with JJ, 66, AJ. His agg stats and reads could help a lot here obv, but in general when calls a 3b preflop and c/minraise the flop, he almost always has the nuts. That's why I think our FE is very low, and we can much more profitably peel a turn and possibly a river. I think this guy is so strong, he's not going to fold ever to another heart, so if we make our hand on the turn, we get to push the chips in with a lot more equity. Same goes for the river.
flat or shove? Quote

      
m