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Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP

05-03-2023 , 03:51 PM
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($134.25) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 37.5% | Flop Agg: 44.3% | Turn Agg: 33.4% | River Agg: 36.1% | 3-Bet: 11.6% | 4-Bet: 14.9% | Hands: 193622]
CO ($101) [VPIP: 15.2% | PFR: 10.9% | AGG: 13.3% | Hands: 47]
BTN ($108.77) [VPIP: 39.1% | PFR: 30.4% | AGG: 45.8% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 44.4% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 10.5% | Fold to 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 47]
SB ($99) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 11.1% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 27]
BB ($99.50) [VPIP: 8.1% | PFR: 5.4% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 37]
UTG ($94.28) [VPIP: 19.6% | PFR: 15.2% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 47]

Dealt to Hero: 8 8

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $2, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $6.50, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $4.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.05 effective]
Flop ($14.50): Q 6 4
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $6.89 (Rem. Stack: $95.38), HERO Calls $6.89 (Rem. Stack: $120.86)

Turn ($28.28): Q 6 4 T
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $20.15 (Rem. Stack: $75.23), HERO ?
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-03-2023 , 10:49 PM
You have a 0 EV bluffcatcher, so your options are pretty much: (1) fold if you think villain is underbluffing, (2) call if you think villain is overbluffing, (3) flip a coin if you’re not sure

Sample is irrelevant unless you saw some showdowns, so I would base this off your MDA
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-03-2023 , 11:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by whitemares
You have a 0 EV bluffcatcher, so your options are pretty much: (1) fold if you think villain is underbluffing, (2) call if you think villain is overbluffing, (3) flip a coin if you’re not sure

Sample is irrelevant unless you saw some showdowns, so I would base this off your MDA
Agreed, so I don't have data for this spot and wanted to ask the forum based off their experience what they would do in this situation.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-04-2023 , 05:57 AM
Seems like an easy board for villain to be overbluffing on with all of their Broadway combos and and flushdraws, even if in theory they are supposed to check some of those back.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-04-2023 , 06:24 AM
In gtowiz vs 1/2 he only sometimes calls 88 woth FD blocker, so vs bigger sizing they are maybe even pute fold.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-04-2023 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Franchise804
Seems like an easy board for villain to be overbluffing on with all of their Broadway combos and and flushdraws, even if in theory they are supposed to check some of those back.
Yes standard turn call regardless of solver solutions.

Suckout confirmed OTR

Spoiler:
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 05:43 AM
What do you mean standard call regardless of solver?
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 05:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
What do you mean standard call regardless of solver?
Solver bluffs less than population here

Sent from my SM-A146U using Tapatalk
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 06:01 AM
Solver bluffs woth with naked Ax Kx, low pp and pool bluffs with BDW gs wich have 10 outs vs us.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 06:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Franchise804
Solver bluffs less than population here

Sent from my SM-A146U using Tapatalk
Ya, I also find this hard to believe.
Pretty confident defending 88 OTT here will not be a +EV play long term.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 06:53 AM
Fold turn vs that size, in those spot we just get owned by IP no matter what we do
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 09:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
Solver bluffs woth with naked Ax Kx, low pp and pool bluffs with BDW gs wich have 10 outs vs us.
Yeah but you need to weight the combos. Also it doesn't matter if my opponent has 10 outs vs me if his range is face up. You fold Flush complete/BW rivers and call the rest.

Solver checks back AKs/KJs/AJo/KJ at mid frequencies.

Hands like Kxs/weak Axs are going to be in their range less.

Solver also checks back BDFD's a lot more than population.

When you combine BDFD's almost always barreling turn and the BW 3bets more likely than weak Axs 3bets preflop it's likely to be over barreled.

If this was COvsBU then it's a slam dunk call but in this configuration it's closer but probably still profitable.

Last edited by DooDooPoker; 05-05-2023 at 09:53 AM.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
Yeah but you need to weight the combos. Also it doesn't matter if my opponent has 10 outs vs me if his range is face up. You fold Flush complete/BW rivers and call the rest.

Solver checks back AKs/KJs/AJo/KJ at mid frequencies.

Hands like Kxs/weak Axs are going to be in their range less.

Solver also checks back BDFD's a lot more than population.

When you combine BDFD's almost always barreling turn and the BW 3bets more likely than weak Axs 3bets preflop it's likely to be over barreled.

If this was COvsBU then it's a slam dunk call but in this configuration it's closer but probably still profitable.
Maybe but its far from obv, because if you bluff with high equity bluffs you can have way more of them compere to hands A5s no fd.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:06 AM
Not sure if I did something wrong, but I ran this in GTO+ with IP range betting, and 88 gets folded a lot. Your combo pretty much pure at 92%

Spoiler:
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
Maybe but its far from obv, because if you bluff with high equity bluffs you can have way more of them compere to hands A5s no fd.
Whether something is obvious or not is completely subjective though.

I do think it's closer in this spot but COvsBU it's a snap call.

If you run some sims and make IP barrel all FD's/BW's but not the small pocket pairs/non intuitive Axs/Kxs then 88 is a winning call.

High equity bluffs are only scary when ranges aren't clear and you aren't sure what rivers hurt you. Ranges are well defined in this spot though.

Last edited by DooDooPoker; 05-05-2023 at 11:26 AM.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newguyhere
Not sure if I did something wrong, but I ran this in GTO+ with IP range betting, and 88 gets folded a lot. Your combo pretty much pure at 92%

Spoiler:

Yeah it's mixed OTF but I think we will play turn/river better than population here so it becomes winning.

It would be interesting to see if this guy missed OTR because I bet he bluffs with his hand and I always call. And a solver would never bluff AKss here.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:23 AM
Ok maybe you can calculate all of that in your head
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
Ok maybe you can calculate all of that in your head
haha I think it's similar to another spot we talked about where it's 1 BW 2 low cards and the turn give's Ax a gutshot.

It's just way over barreled because people are lazy and think they can just red line everyone.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

If you run some sims and make IP barrel all FD's/BW's but not the small pocket pairs/non intuitive Axs/Kxs then 88 is a winning call.
Again, maybe I'm doing something wrong but I made IP barrel all FDs/BWs and SDs. As well as check back the smaller pairs and weaker Axs hands.

Spoiler:



vs that range, OOP doesn't have a calling range

Spoiler:
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newguyhere
Again, maybe I'm doing something wrong but I made IP barrel all FDs/BWs and SDs. As well as check back the smaller pairs and weaker Axs hands.

Spoiler:



vs that range, OOP doesn't have a calling range

Spoiler:
I'm confused, in GTO Wizard it has 88 as a 0 EV call OTT but in your sim it's now losing?
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
I'm confused, in GTO Wizard it has 88 as a 0 EV call OTT but in your sim it's now losing?

Only after I nodelocked IP to barrell/check the hands you mentioned.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 11:57 AM
In those spot it's better to call 54, 65, 76 because you have more outs vs Qx and overpair.

I do prefer calling those pair OOP not at full frequency, you get destroyed by IP on every texture
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newguyhere
Only after I nodelocked IP to barrell/check the hands you mentioned.
Yeah but the solver is playing GTO OTR, population can't help themselves but to bluff all their whiffs.

I'm still surprised 88 is losing though and it has no calling range. I'm going to run it as well.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 12:15 PM
Yeah I think I know what the problem is. The turn calling ranges from OOP are assuming GTO play OTR for IP which never happens.

I'm not sure solvers have this capability but is it possible to run all possible river cards and then nodelock IP play based on the river card? That would make it a ton more realistic.

I basically want to solve this hand backwards but I don't think we can do that.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote
05-05-2023 , 12:45 PM
I literally just played this hand. Similar concept to why we call the original HH OTT/OTR.

Spoiler:
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($101) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 37.5% | Flop Agg: 44.3% | Turn Agg: 33.4% | River Agg: 36.1% | 3-Bet: 11.6% | 4-Bet: 14.9% | Hands: 194805]
BTN ($99.50) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 100% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3-Bet: 14.3% | Fold to 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 17]
SB ($102) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 26]
BB ($100) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 13]

Dealt to Hero: 8 8

HERO Raises To $2, BTN Raises To $7.50, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $5.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.58 effective]
Flop ($16.50): 6 K Q
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $5.17 (Rem. Stack: $86.83), HERO Calls $5.17 (Rem. Stack: $88.33)

Turn ($26.84): 6 K Q 5
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $19.13 (Rem. Stack: $67.70), HERO Calls $19.13 (Rem. Stack: $69.20)

River ($65.10): 6 K Q 5 7
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $67.70 (allin), HERO Calls $67.70 (Rem. Stack: $1.50)

Spoiler:

BTN shows: A 9

HERO wins: $197.50

Again flop is mixed and losing turn call in a solver but we make all the EV back and then some OTR because ranges are face up. So we lose 1-2BB on the turn call but we make 30-40BB OTR, especially with good unblockers.


I checked out GTO Wizard and a hand like AQs is 0 EV vs a triple barrel line here.

Now let me nodelock in GTO+ how population plays.

Look at the EV difference you go from 0 EV--->~36EV BB.

Even if you say they don't always bluff the river the overlay is too much to be folding OTT. So we intentionally make a losing turn call to make an even bigger (exponentially) winning river call.


Last edited by DooDooPoker; 05-05-2023 at 01:15 PM.
Facing Turn Barrel in 3BP Quote

      
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