Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Villain is 26/19/50 over 122 hands. Although his stats looks normal, he made some strange plays to me before, (like check raising the river, check raising the turn, raising the flop etc) every time we played hands up, forcing me to make some folds. We have a read that he limped once too, he called 3 streets with QQ on a AKT35 board in a 3bet pot, and that he likes to attack when he smells weakness.

So generally, I almost never put 200bb with the second or third nuts. I know that he 3bets me opening utg but i have a read that he can do it with stuff like broadways, sc etc. When he bets so hard this turn and river his range seems polarized to me.

Can anyone find a call here?

BTN: $25.00
SB: $16.36
BB: $25.00
Hero (UTG): $51.10
MP: $91.68
CO: $15.05

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has J K

Hero raises to $0.75, MP raises to $2.50, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $2.25, Hero calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.60, 3 players) J 2 9
BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50, fold

Turn: ($14.60, 2 players) K
Hero checks, MP bets $11.25, Hero calls $11.25

River: ($37.10, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP bets $74.43 and is all-in
Hero?

Could have Jacks or AK, QT. Flush draw possibly. Seems weird to come out firing on the turn with QT but not impossible for this player. I think that this does not seem like QT to me and more likely AK with this player. I think you should've bet heavier on the flop.

I'd fold pre even though calling seems tempting : KJs will make some 2nd bet hands and we're 200 bbs deep out of position. Why do you donk the flop, for value ? If so, bet bigger as the board is wet. And why do you check turn when your hand improves ? Your play on previous streets put you in a difficult spot on the river. I'd fold reluctantly.

I checked the turn because i was sure he would bet many times with his air when I saw weakness

Call.
Your donk bet seems fishy and is likely interpreted as weakness. Why would you ever donk a set here? He knows you would calmly check it to him and check/raise. So I guess he smells blood here.
On the turn, an overcard hits and you check. He will bet soo much of his air here that JJ,QT,99 are miniscule in comparison. Since he has run you over in the past he probably thinks you are just trying to make a stand with AJ.
Since you do not have a full pot size bet left, it's like an automatic call on the river. You have to be right 33%. I expect his nuts:air ratio to be 1:3 at least. That's probably an understatement. So you are good 75% of the time.

How much air do you think he has when he 3bet an UTG open and call a lead on the flop ?

He does not have much air. But i believe most of the hands called on the flop find this turn unpleasant when facing a bet. However a player who fires (at least from recent history) when we saw weakness could fire again on this turn hoping to add some fold equity to his overall one pair+draw equity in his range.

I would fold pre, but as played, I c/c flop, lead/3bet the turn.

I think you have to snap call river 100% of the time with your reads. Also fold pre.

grunch

Super easy snap fold pre, especially this deep.

I'm not really convinced we should be leading this flop and ruining our relative position.

Given your read that villain bets when he smells weakness and given your flop lead, c/c'ing down with top two OTT and OTR sounds like a pretty good plan because you under-rep your hand. The problem with that is it's unclear if he will be floating a multiway pot here...and his range is probably pretty tight anyways, considering he 3bet your UTG raise.

I think he mostly can have JJ, KK, AA and AK for value, less often KQ, J9s and QTs (3bet %?). FD missed, Ac is unaccounted for, he's known to fight for pots when we look weak, calling seems like the clear play here.

multiway no less

Oh, and BB's stats are super relevant here btw.

fold pre remember what your fighting for 4.5bbs. do you really want to play KJ suited oop 200bbs deep. i just think this hand is always going to have so many trouble spots postflop especially when villian is clearly a a tricky player. you have top two here and still are not happy calling a river shove. this is just what i think

... And then you didn't raise?

And you were worried about folding his air by leading out, presumably?

How much air does he call the flop with? Especially after 3betting?

fold pre
bet turn
call river

shove river yourself

C/c turn is so weird OP. Either bet it or c/r (which i like) and then jam the river. He's never folding AA, probably not AK either. Boom. Ship it.

I thought when deep we can call with some speculative hands when the stack-to-call ratio is ~30:1. Why us being 200bbs deep is a reason to fold instead of a reason to call (assuming of course we're not going to put the 200bbs with TP2K type hands lol) could you explain please?

u can call but IP, OOP is very hard to play and against a aggro guy it's worst