I was discussing with Corsakh the merits (or lack thereof) in 3betting a medium pair from the blinds, specifically TT-99. What I thought I would do is illustrate some hands where we 3bet, and where we dont, and what situation each choice leaves us in. Fwiw I don't actually have a standard line in these spots yet, so this is not a "lesson" per se, its more a post which I hope will generate some meaningful discussion.

In these hands I have given hero 99 and not TT because I think it is important to realise that in most of these situations TT=99. Even though you may think that TT looks stronger, it almost always isnt when you consider his range. I haven't included the blinds in my calcs for simplicity. Also, quite clearly the flop texture has a big part to play in our decisions. Here, I have given a flop texture that is mostly harmless, not particularly draw heavy, but more importantly, it is good for a cbet both for us when we 3bet preflop, and for him when we just call preflop.

MP in these hands is a TAG, he is 19/16/3.0 over a good sample. There are no specific session dynamics which would make either one of us do anything crazy, but we both know that we play well and are both capable of making moves.

I've listed each position in terms of amount invested, amount won, and hand strength certainty. What do I mean by hand strength certainty? This is the way in which I measure the quality of the decision you make, based on the amount of informaiton you are given. If you are facing a shove when villain can hold a wide range, that means that your certainty about where you stand is poor. If you can narrow your opponents range down to a fine selection, then your hand strength certainty is high, making your decision much easier. In poker, the closer you get to the river, in general, the more certain you can be of your hand's strength relative to your opponents holding and make a comfortable decision, be it fold call or raise.



First, lets take a look at 3betting and cbetting.


Hand 1: We 3bet and cbet, he folds

UTG (UTG): $50
MP (MP): $50
CO (CO): $50
BTN (BTN): $50
SB (SB): $50
Hero (BB): $50

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, MP calls.

Flop: ($12) K 6 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $10, MP folds.


Net amount invested: $16
Net amount won: $6
Hand strength certainty: Unknown

Our villains calling range preflop is wide, as we have no specific reads on him. Suited connectors, all pocket pairs, suited broadways, sneaky AA/KK and air looking to make a move are all more than possible. For this reason, when we make a bet, our hand strength is totally unknown, becuase we are playing against such a wide range - not just of cards, but of possible moves he can pull on us.

In this case, he misses whatever he was looking for and folds, but note that the fact we have 99 is irrelevant. We could make this move with any two.


Hand 2: We 3bet and cbet, he shoves

UTG (UTG): $50
MP (MP): $50
CO (CO): $50
BTN (BTN): $50
SB (SB): $50
Hero (BB): $50

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, MP calls.

Flop: ($12) K 6 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $10, MP raises to $44 and is All-In,

(34 for Hero to call into 66, pot odds 1.94:1, 65:34, need 34% to breakeven)

Net amount invested: $16 -$50
Net amount won: $?
Hand strength certainty: Average - Poor

Again, we play against a very wide range. He can have us crushed, or he can be making a move with any two, figuring that we are FOS. We need 34% equity to breakeven, but the point is, you are essentially paying your whole stack without ever really knowing what the hell you are up against. Remember this guys no maniac, but he can make moves. How do you know what he has? A very difficult decision, and a very expensive one - consider that if you fold here, you have invested $16 into a hand where you can still not be any surer that you were behind on the flop than you were preflop.


Hand 3: We 3bet and cbet, he calls

UTG (UTG): $50
MP (MP): $50
CO (CO): $50
BTN (BTN): $50
SB (SB): $50
Hero (BB): $50

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, MP calls.

Flop: ($12) K 6 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $10, MP Calls $10

Turn: ($32) 2 (2 Players)

Hero? (remaining stacks: $34)

Net amount invested: $16
Net amount won: $?
Hand strength certainty: Totally unknown

Now this is a horrible situation to be in. We have a PSB left, are OOP, and have no idea in hell where we stand. If we check, any bet he makes is going to commit us. Do we bet again? Do we shove? Was he floating with a smaller pair, or does he have the nuts? If we check and he bets or shoves, is he bluffing? How often is he bluffing? Why does he float the flop?

You are literally having to commit your entire stack without knowing a single thing about whether you are behind or not. We have not defined villains hand at all, we are in a huge pot, and we are stuck. Remember, villain plays well - his range is totally polarised - nuts or nothing. Thats what you should be trying to do, polarise your range, because you can see how hard it is to play against.



Now lets take a look at when we just call preflop.



Hand 1 : We just call preflop, c/c flop

UTG (UTG): $50
MP (MP): $50
CO (CO): $50
BTN (BTN): $50
SB (SB): $50
Hero (BB): $50

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP raises to $2, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($4) K 6 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($10) 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks

Net amount invested so far: $5
Hand strength certainty: Unknown

His range is currently any hand which he would raise from MP. Note that we can't narrow that range down because this is a great flop to cbet. But look what has changed between just calling preflop and 3betting:

1. We've only invested $5 so far.
2. We've made it to the turn, meaning there are only two streets left to play
3. Its going to be near impossible for villain to get our whole stack, unless he overbets somwhere
4. We can get further in the hand, and improve our hand strength certainty, for a fraction of the price of 3betting.

Im not going to focus on when he checks behind the flop, because then we can just check our way to freedom. I'll focus only on what happens when he cbets the flop, because I think that's what he does 90% of the time.

So lets look at some turn situations.


Hand 1a: He bets the turn, and we call

Flop: ($4) K 6 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($10) 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $7, Hero calls $7.

Net amount invested so far: $12
Hand strength certainty: Good

Note that I've listed our certainty as "good". Why? Because now we have a lot of questions that we can answer about what he is doing. Questions like:

1. Is this a good card to be doubling on?
2. How aggressive is he by street, what is his turn AF?
3. What is his went to SD?
4. What is his bet river %age?
5. How likely is he to bet the river if we call here? Could he ever bluff the river?

Question 5 is important because its a very specific one and usually pretty easy to answer. It takes a very, very specific and competent type of villain to triple barrel this board with a hand worse than 99. Its almost impossible, imo, to face a bet on the river and not know what to do, because he HAS to put us on at least KQ, or we could be trapping with a set. If he bets the river for value, its strong value, and even if its thin value, its a damn sight fatter than 99. So...


River: ($24) 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Hero checks, MP bets $18, Hero folds.

Net amount invested so far: $12
Hand strength certainty: Excellent

...we make an easy river fold. Our certainty is excellent, AND, more importantly, we save $4! We gain a much higher quality of information for a discount price, without ever having to worry about playing for stacks when we dont know where we stand. Of course if he behaves like we expect, this will happen a lot:


River: ($24) 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Hero checks, MP checks.

Net amount invested so far: $12
Hand strength certainty: 100% Certain

Results: $24 Pot
MP showed Q A (High card, Ace) and LOST
Hero showed 9 9 (One pair, Nines) and WON



Ship it.


Now I'm not saying that this is gospel, or that its how you should definitely play, or that this is the only way to play these hands. Of course the following things are crucial:

1. Villain tendencies
2. Session dynamics
3. Table image
4. Flop, turn and river texture

and so on. There are also times where you can be sure enough of your villain to 3bet 99 from the blinds for value and check fold the flop. But I do definitely think that to say that 3betting mediocre one pair hands from the blinds is mandatory is short sighted, and I hope that in this post I have shown that you can hugely increase the quality of the information you receive, and drastically lower the price of that information, having never to worry about playing for stacks, all just by not 3betting preflop.

Let the discussions begin....

tl;dr

But in the blind without reading the post, there is a stat missing in your post, which is attempt to steal.

Vs an aggro villian, I will 3bet.

vs a medium villian I might just call.

Vs a tight villian i might still call or fold.



There is a certain dynamic ingredient here, but I feel that many might overestimate 99/TT in these spots (or I underestimate it). Also TT is NOT = 99 imo. as there are plenty of mediums card flops, where a T hits vilians range (QT, JT, T8s, etc), but the is not the case then holding TT.

Read the post man, ffs

First of all, nice post!

I prefer 3betting strong PPs like 99,TT from the blinds, just to get control over the pot and get value from my hands.

I think your cbets are way to big for a 3bet pot. You can cbet 1/2-2/3 pot and he'll fold his missed PP or AQ or whatever.
So we have a lot more than just one PSB on the turn.

I usually don't 3bet mid pairs unless I know a player will call with worse (or call with overs and then cf if he misses).

Without that info, I'll call and play poker (ha hi pokey!)

UTG (UTG): $50
MP (MP): $50
CO (CO): $50
BTN (BTN): $50
SB (SB): $50
Hero (BB): $50

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, MP calls.

Flop: ($12) K 6 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $8, MP Calls $8

Turn: ($28) 2 (2 Players)

Hero? (remaining stacks: $36)

Doesn't look much different to me, still pot committed with 2 streets to play

I've been thinking/talking about this recently but haven;t quite got my thoughts up together. I play it based on villian as per gelford except I call more often vs loose aggros -basically 3bet if i think I'm vastly ahead of villain's range when the flop comes down i.e. they'll felt 7xx flop with 87 or I have FE from the 3bet or fcbet.

One benefit of TT/99 vs other 3bet hands is vs some villans 3bet calling range they dominate 88-55 and we either flop or miss so it's a relatively easy hand to get away from if we have to.

It makes a small difference, but it's neglible, you're right.
But I think we can shut down here.
If he folds to a c/r we might do this, but i am shutting down nearly everytime i get called on the flop.

Your investment argument is right, but without control over the pot, we have to fold to most of his turnbets.

Btw:
Why is his bet sizing so small compared to yours?

[quote
Read the post man, ffs

[/quote]


FFS [censored] ***** [censored] .. yo! just sneak peaking quickly at work

a lot of thinking went into this, more than need be.

Theres alot of math analysis here but I assume most of you guys play so many tables and your player pools are so big that you wont have built history where you can figure out what the hell do to in marginal type situations. Basically if you are far enough ahead of his range and its hard to play if you do anything but b/f, just 3b and b/f this flop all day. Also if he calls give up no matter what (cept a 9ball)

There's no need to get annoyed and delete my small joke - I enjoyed the post and was about to comment.

I agree with most of what you say but it's discussed in a void. 3-betting with small/medium pocket pairs has other, significant, benefits. It disguises your 3-bets with monsters - if you're not 3-betting with 99/TT there isn't much you're 3-betting with. If you flop a set it's much easier to get paid off if Villian spikes TP or whatever. It's great for your image. It defines Villians range - you widen your 3-bet range from the blinds and he'll have to narrow his steal range - you can then get a better read. This is similar to what Gelford suggested about adjusting your range for these plays based on aggressiveness of Villian. Also I think consideration of this kind of theory is only useful against good regulars, of which there are precious few in the micros.

Of much more importance is recognising very weak players, figuring out in what way they are bad, and exploiting this correctly. Learning to truely exploit very weak players is a much more important skill that squeezing out marginal EV against regulars I think - and this probably applies for all limits. If you're playing with a bunch of good regulars you're in a bad game. If you're playing with a bunch of good regulars at a micro game it's a 2+2 invitational or something. This is not to take away from the value of the discussion in your post only from it's scope of application.

It isnt. If you mean the $7 on the turn, you can make it 8 or whatever, and you can make the cbet £3.50 or $4, but it makes no difference

Did not read all, but I don't think your fair in the assessment of the villain. In particular his frequences.

There are generally three types of regualrs.

First type is on a nitty side. He is going to raise 30% OTB but only play back with say 3% of his range. He does not adjust. You can raise almost ATC against him and there is little need to balance. You show immediate profit preflop and when he calls you can safely c/f. Our hand is irrelevant. 3betting TT probably is a waste from value point of view, however I am not sure how well I can play it from OOP.

Second type is a tagfish. He calls for set value, flush value, implied odds value, bla bla bla. He plays small PP and SC cos he has position. He raises 30% he calls 15%. He folds most of the flop cos he misses. He goes bananas on some flops because he hit his set or two pair. He calls with top pair, middle pair and draws. Typical, very easy to adjust. Three bet, see the flop and play poker as if stacks were 3 times smaller. Playing this type of guys is like playing a 30BB stack. He is a live straddle in LP. Your are ahead of his range. TT has value and is important because his range has lots of 89, KQ nad 66 types of hands.

Third type is a proper adjusting TAG who is going to 4bet you pre and call/shove/float flops. Against this sort of player you need reads and analysis. He uses position to the max. Both raised and reraised pots with TT gonna be equally hard. The reason I prefer 3bet pots is that this negates his positional advantage and gives him less room to maneuver. Best advice imho in this spot is either don't interfere (play TT purely for set/overcards value) or change the tables. If you decide to clash, I prefer 3betting for stated reasons. You have to adjust your ranges accordingly of course. And of course, implied profit from AA/KK is the absolute deciding factor here.

But I have to admit it has a lot to do with the table dynamics, your playstyle, your cbet, 3bet, float frequencies and rangesm how comfortable you feel playing a particular hand against a particular type of villain form OOP, etc

fwiw calling here is bad agaisnt literally any single player even with a small prf raise over a medium sized sample without a read that he minraised AA or something prf. Typically you can interpret prf minraises as weakness, imo you are DEF ahead of his range so you want to 3b

You are right again, just though the river bet was so much bigger than his bets before, but it makes sense.

I think Gelford summed it up nicely.

Positional aggressor - 3-bet
Unknown - I prefer call
Tightish-TAG player - Call CO raise, 3-bet button open

If I have 99 on KTxr board in a 3-bet pot and I get action I'm done with the hand. I think a more interesting situation would be if the flop came all rags like:

3s 5h 8c

Hero leads for 2/3rds pot
TAG calls

What's your plan for an overcard/brick on the turn?

Or how about a flop with an overcard and a flush-draw like:

4c 8s Qs

Hero leads for 2/3rds pot
TAG calls or raises...

plan for brick turn?

I tend to just call with midpairs in the blinds. The fact that I'm out of position is my main reason. Your more likely to make mistakes OOP, especially against a competent villain. Obviously, the bigger the pot the bigger your mistakes become. Also, against a good villain (who floats a decent %age), you cant narrow down his range until you get to the turn.

The factors that would tilt into 3betting out of the blinds are:

I've seen villain fold to 3bets a good %age of the time, even in position.

If he doesnt float a lot.

And if i really think he is super weak-tight and I can run him over on later streets.

My analysis:

MP opens
22+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs,T9s,98s, AJo+,KJo+ = 181 combinations

If we 3bet:
4bets: QQ+,AKs = 22 combinations. We fold.
calls: 77-JJ,AQ+,98s,T9s = 61 combinations
folds: everything else = 98 combinations
EV(MP folds/4bets)= 22/181*(-6)+ 98/181*2 = -0.72+1.08=0.36

On the flop:
We cbet, he
calls: JJ,TT(will raise turn),T9 = 16 (our equity 9%, assume 0%)
raises: AKo = 12
folds: AQ,98s,77-99 = 33
EV(calls preflop; call+raise+fold)=(16+12)/181*(-12) + 33/181*6 = -1.81+1.09 = -0.79

Total EV=-0.43

So 3betting against this range doesn't seem to be profitable. But if we were up against a loose button raiser who also raises 56s-78s, A2s-A7s, A8o-ATo+,98o and other stuff we can add at least 100 handcombinations to his range that he will have to fold preflop.

In that case the total EV is
22/281*(-2)+28/281*(-12)+33/281*(6)+198/281*2=
-0.15-1.2+0.7+1.4 = 0.75.

So when the openraiser has a tight range, 3betting is not good. If he's looser 3betting is +EV. On top of that calling is worse in the second case, because a lot of his range won't stack off if we hit a set.

Some of these EV calculations are bad because we're not really concerned with the EV we get from stealing his raise. It negates the value out of our hand and is identical to 3betting with 72.

What's relevant is his calling range...his opening range is pretty useless.

But how often do you get to showdown? If your not doing anything fancy that is not very often. In less than 10% of the cases the hand gets past the flop i.e. MP calls both preflop and on the flop. In these cases we have 9% equity, so our hand doesn't have much value. Our hand is only valuable when both we and MP are getting fancy.

what?

I tend to 3 bet 9's and 10's always unless there has been a 3 bet already in which case i evaluate the personnel involved in pot. I though primarily play on the deep stacks tables (200bb) which i think varies play immensely. with only 100bbs people are more likely to 4 bet ak or raise all in your flop bet which unless you flop a set puts you in a uncomfortable spot. With 200bb's it isn't so simple for villain when i 3 bet, bet out flop and bet turn if board is favourable because they are playing for twice as much and i'm the one putting them to the decision. By simply calling in the blinds with 99 or 1010 is bad because you have no easy way of deducing the strength of their hand or yours( a fundamental problem of playing oop) Simply calling down with one overcard or no overcards is very read dependent on the villain in question and surely as you move up the stakes, opponents are going to be better in general and 3 barrel dangerous cards. Obviously you have to put into consideration the person opening the pot, calling is obviously better against someone who opens 5% of hands.

By 3 betting OOP you take the iniative in the pot and when you cbet the flop your opponent has to put in half or all his stack to find out where he is whereas you have only put in a small amount and going on reads you can decide whether to call all ins etc. 9's and 10's are going to be ahead of the range of almost every villain so even oop 3 betting imo is warranted. Also when playing OOP it is harder to disguise your hands so when you flop a set of 9's and 10's your are less likely to get payed of from a decent villain who hits tptk whereas when you 3 bet generally villain is getting all in when he hits tp/overpair and you hit a set. IMO by being the aggressor in the hand you put your opponent to making a decision, the times you will take down the pot with a cbet or flop a set/overpair(read dependednt) and stack your opponent will far outweigh the times you lose money by cbetting and him calling/raising and you having to fold. Apologies if this is rambled [censored]

Here's a pot that went down well for me when i 3 bet 99's

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $177.50
MP: $85.80
CO: $96.45
BTN: $60.85
Hero (SB): $58.35
BB: $63.90

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, CO raises to $1.05, BTN folds, Hero raises to $3.55, BB folds, CO calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.40) Q 9 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $6, CO raises to $25.40, Hero raises to $54.80 and is All-In, CO calls $29.40

Turn: ($117) 5 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($117) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $117 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed T K (King Queen high) and LOST (-$58.35 NET)
Hero showed 9 9 (three of a kind, Nines) and WON $114 (+$55.65 NET)

I think

In that case, the 3bet is good because he called you with a bad hand. So go ahead and 3bet that guy.

That being said, the hand would have played out identically had you not 3bet...you see that right?

This is so key. You 3bet w/99/TT only if 99/TT is ahead of his 3bet CALLING range. If he's only calling with TT+/AK then it's better just to call, as you're basically turning your hand (which has a lot of value) into a bluff.

The same goes for 3betting small/mid pocket pairs. I used to do this to blind steals but after talking through it with my coach (yay free coaching, thanks Luke) you're basically turning those hands into bluffs, when they have way too much value.

Your 3bet range should be pretty polarized between pure bluffs (54s-98s type hands) and TT+,AQs+ and should be adjusted based on how your opponent plays. If his opening range is wide but his 3bet CALLING range is tight, then you can add more bluffs to your 3bet range. If he's calling 3bets loose then you need to tighten up your bluffs and stick to value bets, but at the same time lower your 3bet standards (so include hands like 99/TT, AQ, KQ, sometimes even AJs/KJs. It all depends on their 3bet calling range).