River: ($1.95) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $1, Hero raises to $4, MP3 raises to $8.30, Hero raises to $21.09 and is all-in, MP3 calls $9.36 and is all-in
Spoiler:
Results: $37.27 pot ($1.50 rake)
Final Board: Q 5 5 J 9
Hero showed 5 5 and won $35.77 ($17.31 net)
MP3 showed J J and lost (-$18.46 net)
Flop I could either take the lead or play passively. I figured that taking a passive line was best for 2 reasons: Letting my opponents improve and/or induce bets. After nobody bet I figured that the fish most likely had nothing. I wasn't sure about the PFA. I figured that he most likely never will have a FD or overpair. He could have double broadways, low-medium PP's and non spade SC's
Turn Based on the PFA percieved range I assumed that he'd bet things like KT, T9s, JTs, 77-TT thinking that he'd be ahead most of the time. He could also take stabs with completely missed hands aswell. Therefore I thought that checking to him was best here, since he'd most likely take stabs and/or valuebet weaker holdings.
The only realistic hands that I could see him calling a x/r with here are QQ and JJ, which is a very small part of his range. I figured that by calling I underrep my hand, and he might go for a second barrel with weaker holdings/and or bluffs OTR.
River The intention behind x/c OTT was to make him fire a second barrel with his weaker holdings. I'd expect everything else than KT, QQ and JJ to continue here. KT would probably just call, and QQ-JJ and possibly 99 would reraise. Given his small reraise I put him on either QQ or JJ. I figured that if I fired a small 4bet as opposed to just shoving he'd call JJ instead of 5bet shove.
I was very lucky that he had such a strong hand, and otherwise I'd just get a very small bit of his entire stack. It feels like I really misplayed the flop and turn (against his entire percieved range), especially since we're both deepstacked. What line would you take here? I feel like checking to the PFA OTF isn't too bad, but maybe I should've taken the lead OTT instead of checking?
I think I'm leading river big, only for fear of someone checking behind top pair. Any straight will raise for value, and so will boats. You're not losing any value by doing so but you're getting value from TP hands that might check back.
I think I'm leading river big, only for fear of someone checking behind top pair. Any straight will raise for value, and so will boats. You're not losing any value by doing so but you're getting value from TP hands that might check back.
I don't see villain have TP here almost ever, but I understand what you mean, if villain had AJ for example he'd probably check that behind. It makes alot of sense to lead out as you said, thanks!