I've been dabbling with turn probe raises, mostly on wet boards like this. What is your criteria for raising them?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BTN ($21.45) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 19.6% | AGG: 39% | Hands: 2463]
SB ($10) [VPIP: 24.3% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 32.6% | Hands: 195]
BB ($28.21) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 13.2% | AGG: 23.1% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 22.2% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 17.6% | Hands: 39]
UTG ($9.95) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 9]
HERO ($12.05) [VPIP: 24.5% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 35.1% | Flop Agg: 40.9% | Turn Agg: 28.4% | River Agg: 31.7% | 3-Bet: 10.8% | 4-Bet: 16.4% | Hands: 294580]
CO ($12.69) [VPIP: 21.2% | PFR: 13.2% | AGG: 35.7% | Hands: 156]

Dealt to Hero: A T

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.22, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.12

Hero SPR on Flop: [24.14 effective]
Flop ($0.49): T 8 Q
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($0.49): T 8 Q 7
BB Bets $0.24 (Rem. Stack: $27.75), HERO Raises To $0.96 (Rem. Stack: $10.87), BB Calls $0.72 (Rem. Stack: $27.03)

River ($2.41): T 8 Q 7 5
BB Checks, HERO Checks

typically against a probe we're either doing it because board texture improves us moderately often or because we're exploiting something, simply because we a) get to bet more strong hands IP on the flop and b) we have less incentive to raise before river IP

I don't like having more than a minimal raising range in this spot because villain has so so so many more nutted combos than us unless we're relying on this as a sizing tell

not sure what we achieve by raising this specific hand

Either we raise turn probe for value or as a bluff. I don’t understand the hand selection in this hand. Makes no sense to me. I’d assume this is for value??? Getting a draw to call so you can check back river.

The interesting thing about turn probes at this level ime is that sizing will often tell you a lot, more than say a flop cbet would. Only a handful of the better regs are really going to attack flop x backs ott

Yeah I think Villain's call more OTT than bluff river so I'd rather get value now than bluff catch OTR when most opponent's just give up.

It also defines hand ranges a lot more easily since Villain's monster hands will just 3bet OTT

Looks like Villain's turn sizing is a mistake. We never go this small OTT.

In my solve I have 2x pot for BB's probe sizing. And even hands like AQo are checked mostly

I had posted a similar hand a few months ago.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/6...e-turn-1766649


I still believe these turn raises are fine as long as they aren't overdone, but I would probably do with at least TP barring any reads.

Even if a solver would always 100% call AT here OTT as HJ. The EV difference is very small between calling and raising. If you add in sizing tells than it could be possible that raising is higher EV as an exploit.

Also consider that BB most likely has not studied river donking and when we go to the bet/call a raise part of the game tree, we are inherently against a weaker range than a BB bet/HJ call.

I think at the micros at least, that putting your opponent's in capped range spots as often as possible will lead us to making higher EV decisions overall.

don't think we should be raising much here
and I think he's supposed to be probing big and more polar anyway but even if you throw in some mid hands like most of the Tx and pair+gs/oe, still dunno if we have much of a raising range
AT tho with no re-draw looks like a clear call to me

Can you think of a board off the top of your head where we would have a decent raising range OTT vs a probe?

a low board that I x/ often ip like 642 and he probes for 1/2p or so on a brick like a 9/T/J, I wouldn't mind raising most overpairs and gutshots A3/A5 etc

So boards with lower cbet frequencies for IP can get raised more often OTT?

What about boards that OOP should be donking OTF in theory? Like 865r and then the turn comes a 2 or 3.

well ye you raise turn more often if you x/ a good amount of strong hands otf
idk about flop donking, haven't studied that at all, but I guess the stronger your range, the more you raise, esp if he ****s up and donks into a texture that favors ip

So since our strategy is directly connected to Villain, if Villain should be donking on a board like over half the time but never donks then there is a very real possibility that we should just be checking range OTF once we nodelock BB to 0% donking.

I'm playing around with different bet sizing's and it looks like BB has a jamming range with this line OTR if I just call OTT. Probably even more so in practice than theory since most people don't protect their X back range enough with strong hands.

I'm giving the solver some ridiculous bet sizing's like 10x pot OTR and there's a decent part of our range that just wants to ship here. If flop goes x/x, turn goes bet and HJ just calls. If we get to the river than HJ's range is very weak so we can just ship and HJ can't do much except fold.

You pretty much never see anyone make these outlandish sizing's into capped ranges but hands like K4dd just ships OTR here all in.

ye you can do a lot of crazy overbetting 10x pot if v is really capped AND you have nutt-ish hands of your own
I noticed some crazy river ob donk spots that I'd like to study, got a feeling it would be worth it
flop and turn I'm not so interested in donking, esp seeing as people bet too often and I can simply xr a lot instead, seems easier and higher ev to polish a node I'm already familiar with than going into the whole donking rabbit hole
bout a year ago when I was moving up to 200z, was doing so much turn xr bluffing and ppl seem to overfold like crazy cause "baluga theorem" or w/e regurgitated bs they're taught

can't be too bad although I'd prefer a better hand like T9

the things to consider are equity when called and wether or not the turn helps you

A lot of flop donks come from weak/marginal top pairs so when they don't donk flop and start donking turn it's going to be a lot of random hands that a good second pair does very well against. Especially when the turn brings in draws.

Think this hand is played very well. Think you can even start raising weaker second pairs (Obvs dependent on villain sizing, versus bigger sizings I would be more wary of raising the weaker pairs).

^ when you raise against bigger sizings, you make better use of blockers

I prefer to do this with a hand that has less SDV and a draw of some kind like maybe AJ, 79s or K9s here. With this particular hand id prefer to just call and expect him to check river and we may put out a small value bet. I like the idea, I use it often, but with different hands.