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Crazy Wild Table--> Right Decision? Crazy Wild Table--> Right Decision?

11-02-2009 , 08:52 PM
Thanks JKratzer,

I guess, instead of thinking about the 'total' probability to include the entire pot, I just kept thinking about it in terms of win/loss with no regards to potential profit (which is the wrong way to think about it).

I think psychologically, I froze up since in live cash games it is so rare to face 4 all-ins preflop and or to be in a situation in which four players go all in to the river every hand.

Similarly, there was a psychological factor involved, to be playing against four players with absolutely no regard for money or cards.

But you are right, the Math says I should have made the preflop call especially when I felt my hand was the best hand.

In truth, I love to play against one or two players like this, but have never encountered a situation where four players were like this.

Does this happen alot online?

I also think that what happened is that the table sorta morphed into a higher limit table (as was mentioned earlier). Instead of playing $2 - $200 spread, the table became this quasi $25/$50 NL game, so now, its like your playing a high limit game with no bankroll to back you, at least that is how it 'felt'.

Anyways, thanks JKratzer, next time, i'll be mentally prepared to make the right call.
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11-02-2009 , 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
Thanks JKratzer,

I guess, instead of thinking about the 'total' probability to include the entire pot, I just kept thinking about it in terms of win/loss with no regards to potential profit (which is the wrong way to think about it).

I think psychologically, I froze up since in live cash games it is so rare to face 4 all-ins preflop and or to be in a situation in which four players go all in to the river every hand.

Similarly, there was a psychological factor involved, to be playing against four players with absolutely no regard for money or cards.

But you are right, the Math says I should have made the preflop call especially when I felt my hand was the best hand.

In truth, I love to play against one or two players like this, but have never encountered a situation where four players were like this.

Does this happen alot online?

I also think that what happened is that the table sorta morphed into a higher limit table (as was mentioned earlier). Instead of playing $2 - $200 spread, the table became this quasi $25/$50 NL game, so now, its like your playing a high limit game with no bankroll to back you, at least that is how it 'felt'.

Anyways, thanks JKratzer, next time, i'll be mentally prepared to make the right call.
it was nothing like a 25/50 game, the max bet on each street is 200
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11-02-2009 , 09:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GSWarriors
it was nothing like a 25/50 game, the max bet on each street is 200
Key word being FELT like. Four players who would as soon as bet raise reraise rereraise to a total of $800 preflop, flop, turn, and river as they would order a drink from the bar.

It was obvious these players were not only well rolled, but just didn't care about the money they were throwing in. So yes, it 'felt' like the game had changed despite the fact that technically yes, it was a spread game.
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11-02-2009 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArturiusX
Abhorson, you realise that having an insane winrate is your best protection against swings?
+1
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11-02-2009 , 10:18 PM
A few important things. First, this isn't no limit where you whole stack and profits are in jeopardy because you cover everyone else, and there is a cap on the amount that can be bet. Secondly, you may only win a portion of the time when you get your money in, but you will be getting great odds for your money. For example. If 4 people(including yourself) put in $1000 preflop, and you had Aces and the other hands were random, you would win 57% of the time. Meaning you would lose 43% of the time, to some really BS hands. How much would you make though? You would be expected to win 57% of the $4k pot over time, so you would return $2280 for a profit of $1280, even though you lose 43% of the time here.

Its a very profitable spot, but if you don't feel comfortable making that bet, then you should leave. You should know this about yourself before you play any more hands though, don't wait until you get a good situation(like with JJ and AK) and decide to fold them.
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11-02-2009 , 11:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
In all seriousness, I do not think this is right.

JJ vs 1 opponent with ATC is a 76% favorite
JJ vs 2 opponents with ATC is a 61% favorite
JJ vs 3 opponents with ATC is a 49% favorite
JJ vs 4 opponents with ATC is a 40% favorite

So, would you push all in preflop as a 60% dog with only a 40% chance of winning?

AKs vs 1 opponent with ATC is a 66% favorite
AKs vs 2 opponents with ATC is a 50% favorite
AKs vs 3 opponents with ATC is a 41% favorite
AKs vs 4 opponents with ATC is a 35% favorite

So would you push all in preflop as a 65% dog with only a 35% chance of winning?

This was why I left the table. At the time, I did not know the exact math, but I knew that I was not an OVERALL favorite to win those hands (which incidentally, I would have lost $2K in those hands).
annnnnnd this clinches the conclusion that you are ******ed

youre basically saying you wouldnt risk to win getting 4:1 odds as a 40% favorite

can you seriously reread what you wrote? like this part i quoted? explain to me how what you wrote is not all completely stupid.

seriously just move down in stakes. its obvious this game is free money, but you are too chickensht to play. the stupidity of this entire post boggles my mind
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11-02-2009 , 11:58 PM
like, you actually folded JJ/AK preflop because they weren't going to be 50+% to win versus 3+ other people

lol
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11-03-2009 , 12:22 AM
I think a better question to ask is what range of hands we'd be calling with in this situation.
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11-03-2009 , 12:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by waow
annnnnnd this clinches the conclusion that you are ******ed

youre basically saying you wouldnt risk to win getting 4:1 odds as a 40% favorite

can you seriously reread what you wrote? like this part i quoted? explain to me how what you wrote is not all completely stupid.

seriously just move down in stakes. its obvious this game is free money, but you are too chickensht to play. the stupidity of this entire post boggles my mind
If you read my posts and have to ask then you aren't as smart as you think you are.

I acknowledged in my posts I was in error and stated why I was in error but also why I made the decision I made.

Despite being in the wrong, there is logic behind the decision I made. That logic enabled me to take home a great profit for the day's session.

My coming on here and posting is to learn and get feedback, but so many of you kids love to come online, show your ass and start jawing about how stupid someone is. I guess it makes you feel better about yourselves.

Similarly, not everyone is going to be as good as you. So what should we do. Have a seperate website for those of us who aren't super pros?
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11-03-2009 , 01:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
...not everyone is going to be as good as you. So what should we do. Have a seperate website for those of us who aren't super pros?
here.

kindly stop tilting us.
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11-03-2009 , 02:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
Despite being in the wrong, there is logic behind the decision I made. That logic enabled me to take home a great profit for the day's session.
and this "logic" is results-oriented thinking
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11-03-2009 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
Similarly, not everyone is going to be as good as you. So what should we do. Have a seperate website for those of us who aren't super pros?
this forum is for people to improve their poker game

you are basically saying you dont wish to get better, by continually defending why you left this insanely profitable game. people are going to berate you for this because this is exactly against what we try to do.

we are "jawing your ass off" because you are describing a game that is very very +ev, and it seems criminal to leave. you ask us if we would leave and why, and no one with the proper bankroll would leave. most of us wouldnt even leave with a small bankroll. i wouldnt leave if it was the last of my money on the table.
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11-03-2009 , 03:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKratzer
i can't tell if you're being serious since folding JJ and AKs in those spots is pretty much burning money

you should strive to be more like the other person that posts on your account

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...41&postcount=5
wow pwned imo.

OP LOL at leaving a spread game where the bets are capped because you're worried about being too deep.

Mark
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11-03-2009 , 05:52 AM
Sweet thread.

Dji, did you think this game would be still profitable for you? if no, then leave.

if you had infinite money you would have stayed? (obviously if you had infinite money you wouldn't bother trying to make more, but go with this for the sake of argument).

If the answer is yes, then it depends how much the money you've won means to you. And no one here can help you with that because it's based on your opinion. If the answer is no, then think about what else has changed in the game.

Did you stop having fun? Probably if you fold AK & JJ preflop....so maybe you should leave...


p.s. as some others have said it's a bit silly asking a question on here then disputing other peoples answers. If you are so sure of yourself to begin with then don't ask the question.
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11-03-2009 , 05:56 AM
Ya the fact that this is capped makes this insanely bad to leave this game.

The level at which u grasp poker theory is really under the majority of msnl posters, as displayed by the argument about why calling JJ is bad. Then you contest several posters that tell you leaving is bad. I'd suggest posting in ssnl or you'll keep getting flamed just like in this thread.
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11-03-2009 , 06:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by waow
i wouldnt leave if it was the last of my money on the table.
I would rate this as much worse than what the OP has done and said.
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11-03-2009 , 06:16 AM
If you have a bankroll; you never leave the table.

If you don't have a bankroll, either "gamble" it up in a very advantageous spot, or run off cause the money is relevant to you.

You seem to have chosen the latter, but if you have a solid bankroll you're making a very big mistake. I mean, even if you have a semi-solid bankroll, you're making a pretty significant mistake by leaving a game so juicy.
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11-03-2009 , 06:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
The situation I described was four consecutive hands that was raised preflop to $600

the table had gotten to the point where preflop activity for every hand was almost the buy-in for the table ($500)

Even after I left, every hand was raised preflop to at least $100 with the majority of preflop action going beyond $200 and then max bets all the way to the river. Like I said, this table was INSANE. This went on for an hour after I left.

FWIW, my bankroll is well over 50+ buy-ins
If your bankroll really was big enough for it, just go AI with like AJ+ TT+ whenever all thw morons are allin and you will be getting your money in ******o good 5way repeatedly.

you're getting 4:1 on your money and can do this with what is easily the best hand often and you do not do so?

this is the antithesis of the macro theory of poker and to get up and leave means you dont believe in the fundementals of why poker makes good players money.

PS I stoved TT+ AJo/s+ against 4 other players holding random cards, you have around 33%EQ (i didn't let it enumerate fully but that was the jist of it)

even with this meager range adjustment you have 33% getting 4:1 or 5:1 this is a joke and you should right in there and just live with the way isht pans out.
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11-03-2009 , 06:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
If you read my posts and have to ask then you aren't as smart as you think you are.

I acknowledged in my posts I was in error and stated why I was in error but also why I made the decision I made.

Despite being in the wrong, there is logic behind the decision I made. That logic enabled me to take home a great profit for the day's session.

My coming on here and posting is to learn and get feedback, but so many of you kids love to come online, show your ass and start jawing about how stupid someone is. I guess it makes you feel better about yourselves.

Similarly, not everyone is going to be as good as you. So what should we do. Have a seperate website for those of us who aren't super pros?
If you ask a question and get some responses that you don't like, or are a bit harsh, you really shouldn't get too defensive. Take the constructive criticism and move on. Ignore that negative criticism if it bugs you.

Or you should just not ask a question.

IMHO.
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11-03-2009 , 06:30 AM
Where is the live poker forum? If there isn't one, why??? This thread and basically 90% of the live poker threads are seriously putting me on tilt. asdfsadf

And to answer the OP: No, you didn't make the right decision unless you hate winning money. Unless you had your whole br on the table or are a scared little bitch it seems pretty stupid not to keep playing
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11-03-2009 , 08:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newby
this could've been an interesting question:

you're at a table where someone open shoves every hand. everytime you stack him, he rebuys to cover you (alternatively, he is infinitely deep). at what point do you quit?
Never?
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11-03-2009 , 08:36 AM
only read the op

this must be the longest level in the history of msnl
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11-03-2009 , 08:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyFishFight
Never?
For sure there is.
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11-03-2009 , 08:51 AM
Why would you ever quit?
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11-03-2009 , 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyFishFight
Why would you ever quit?
Because my marginal utility of money isn't constant.

But if it's a theoretical example to the extreme, meaning I know with 100% certainty he'll never ever quit and time is not a factor, I'd never quit.
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