Villain 42/10/1.5 over only 19 hands. Am I getting -ev with this move? Thanks for your feedback

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Villain: $118.65
Hero: $70.95

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 4 K 6 ($6.5, 2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $3, BB raises to $15, Hero raises all-in $67.95.

He has some 44/66 here often, but you should never be thinking about folding this, a 42/10 guy can turn up with some weird K7o here, whatever...

definitely +EV against most people on this level

Mhh... Whats wrong with just calling? This is like bet reraise reraise all-in. Kinda scary.

I seriously dunno what to do but I am guessing calling would not be best for some reason...

Thanks for any explanations.

You need to raise more on the flop... up to 7 or so.

As played against this villain I think I stack off here... too many kings and draws possible to let this one go.

I'm sorry to say that your all in raise was def -EV. I've used pokerstove to analyze what I believe his flop 4bet range (his raise to 15 dollars) is and your equity against it. I don't see any K making that 4 bet unless it was AK. So I've got a range of (AKo,KK,66,44,64o,4d3d,4d5d) basically sets and combo draws and the lone AK.

Here is your equity:

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: 4s Kd 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.658% 36.66% 00.00% 8710 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 63.342% 63.34% 00.00% 15050 0.00 { KK, 66, 44, AKs, 5d4d, 4d3d, AKo, 64o }


Based on your equity you can justify a call of his 4bet but not a reraise all in. Based on your equity, your all in was just a bluff since any hand that will call will almost certainly be one that beats you. K7 will fold to the all in so why not just call its unlikely 4bet and keep it in the pot. Next time, just call the flop and reevaluate on the turn. Sometimes you have to fold AA after all.

How do you do that with pokerstove?

Thanks for any help.

post in ssnl

nawledge, I think your range is way too tight.

I don't think bb flats KK out of the blinds...

you need to add in more hands like KQ, KJ, and more fd combos.

+1. hero's raise on the flop is so weak that i wouldn't be surprised if v came over the top with air or very slim holdings.

You just highlight the text box down below (in pokerstove) and simultaneously push ctrl+C and it copies the text to your clipboard and you can paste whereever you want.

Perhaps you could suggest some hands I should add?

I think those slim holdings would rather call than raise. Villain's AF is only 1.5, this doesn't seem like the type of villain to 4bet with air/slim holdings.

You really think he's gonna 4bet the flop with KQ, KJ? Those are calling hands. The FD's are calling hands too. He was getting good odds to call there with a FD too.

I don't get the HH, but this looks pretty standard to me

This is a pretty passive-fishy villain. As such donkbet-->overbet should make you want to claw your own eyes out. Your going to make money off this guy by betting three streets for value, not calling down his random big bluffs so it wouldn't be too bad to just fold. However, he's probably not capable of a big bluff on the turn so you can call down and see if he wants to continue betting. If you have seen him over-value his hands before, its an easy call. Also if you've seen him make random large bluffs before you just have to stack off. But without that read fold flop. Or you can be like me and tell yourself 'this is just playback' and pay him off every time.

Pretty much all kx's, a bunch of suited diamonds, and maybe even 56.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

158,400 games 0.127 secs 1,247,244 games/sec

Board: 4s Kd 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.963% 66.96% 00.00% 106070 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 33.037% 33.04% 00.00% 52330 0.00 { 66, 44, AKs, K2s+, QdJd, 64s+, AKo, K2o+, 64o+ }


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I think his range is a little closer to that.
Also an aggression factor of 1.5 isn't exactly passive considering his vpip.

I actually think your hand analysis is pretty good, but you're just giving the villain slightly too much credit. And I admit that my hand range is a bit too loose for his 4betting range, but it's close enough.

Taking KK out of my range and adding in 89s,9Ts,76s,JTs (all diamonds) we get this equity (I'm not including KQ and KJ cuz that's just absurd):

24,750 games 0.005 secs 4,950,000 games/sec

Board: 4s Kd 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.669% 43.67% 00.00% 10808 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 56.331% 56.33% 00.00% 13942 0.00 { 66, 44, AKs, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 5d4d, 4d3d, AKo, 64o }


If villain is capable of making semi bluffs like the flop 4bet (you should have a read on this to know first) then I must say that given the dead money in the pot already, shoving is a good (+EV) option.

[QUOTE=SDone;6389394]

I should point out that when you enter 64s+ you are gonna get ALL the suited combinations like 6h4h,6s4s, etc. and that is for all the suited one gappers and the same goes for the K2s+. So that little error is def screwing up your equity result.

As for the K2s+. None of those can be FDs since he could only hold one diamond. I sincerely doubt that anyone who can accrue the stack that villain had at the beginning of the hand would 4bet K2s (or any K that isn't AK) on that flop. It just wouldn't happen unless they were borderline ******ed.

why is this a discussion? do you really want to fold aces here?

Clearly folding is out of the question, as I've admitted in all of my posts. BUT SOMETIMES YOU DO HAVE TO FOLD ACES (they are only one pair afterall). Here isn't one of those times though.

no need to pay much attention to those stats -- the sample size is 19 hands.

19 hands is plenty to see that he's a loose passive fish and you should be looking to make large preflop raises and then fold him out on the flop or turn with less than half pot cbets and value bet TPTK like the nuts.