Interesting spot -
Questions first;
- What do you think his PF range is for calling?
- What's your 3B range against his 3.5 bb open? We might say that makes us think he's recreational, which is fine generally about them, but what hands are getting te 3.5 open - all hands, or juts strong one, maybe just ones he wants to protect/will have a hard time folding?
- Also, what are your assumptions about his flop line with sets/2p?
Re turn check -
In this formation, pool stabs 46% - with 32% of the bet range being 'weak'
On A High flops in this formation. the stab drops slightly to 42% with 'weak' part of that bet range dropping off a cliff to 18%
Looking deeper into SD hands from differnt lines on AHigh flops - it looks like c60% of TP hands are betting and about 40% of MP/SP.
Two pretty STRONG indicators we donlt want to induce here in real life - whatever a GTO reponse might tell us.
Given we can expect near 100% calls from TP when we bet, and the texture is one pool is disinclined to bluff, bet turn seems the line.
Further question then, if we assume;
- at least some portion of sets/2p get flop raised
- villain will bet most (say 75% of) 2p+ value on turn
What's your river jam range?