I would always call this and any similar catcher that gets to river like this.
In my experience, tiny overbets are often bluffs, no data to back it up.
Also makes sense he might go bigger for value now that flopped 2p are counterfeited.

Didn't see 3rd diamond. Now overpairs not betting like this, he just reps straights+, but I think flushes+ go bigger for value and u block straights and he's got a lot of missed stuff so calling.

Okay thank you everyone for replies.

Looks like most people are on board with a call, which I did (obviously haha).

Results

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($115.57) [VPIP: 28.8% | PFR: 24.5% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 45.1% | Turn Agg: 33.5% | River Agg: 36.2% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | 4-Bet: 14.6% | Cold Call: 8.3% | Hands: 163589]
UTG ($98.50) [VPIP: 8.1% | PFR: 8.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 38]
HJ ($183.93) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 59]
CO ($248.50) [VPIP: 26.4% | PFR: 24.5% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 56]
BTN ($106) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 42.9% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 50% | 3-Bet: 6.3% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
SB ($110.52) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 19.5% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 42]

Dealt to Hero: Q T

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $2.50, SB Folds, HERO Calls $1.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [18.82 effective]
Flop ($5.50): 8 9 T
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.73 (Rem. Stack: $101.77), HERO Calls $1.73 (Rem. Stack: $111.34)

Turn ($8.96): 8 9 T 4
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $5.62 (Rem. Stack: $96.15), HERO Calls $5.62 (Rem. Stack: $105.72)

River ($20.20): 8 9 T 4 4
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $22.78 (Rem. Stack: $73.37), HERO Calls $22.78 (Rem. Stack: $82.94)

It has nothing to do with whatever gto is supposed to be. People don't take a 1/3-3/4-random overbet size with a flopped straight when the river pairs and makes a flush. It's a bs bet size line.

If he is “probably” ranging flop then that’s even better as it leaves his range wider on future streets, no?

Also, why is your “probably” terminology ok when mine isn’t?

Isn’t solid play and our best assumptions about randos the best we have to go on in spots like this?

Well if we're calling down with 1-pair maybe it's not such a bad line to take with a flopped straight? But okay I see what you're saying though. When I make calls like this I usually end up regretting it, but I probably play in softer games where people aren't bluffing enough.

You should usually lose when you make a correct call

Well when people overbet they're normally polarized, so if they never really have a straight or FH here, and you have a high diamond, I think a random person will be overbluffing so much here that folding will be a huge mistake.

I'm using the word probably based off flop data, the flop cbet data I have show's population cbetting 72% OTF.

You said your probably was based on instincts, that was my point of contention.

Fair. I suppose population overusing 1/3rd on too many textures is somewhat well known.

Maybe that’s part of my instinct of why they could be too wide on turn/river.

My point is mainly that I don’t know how to comment on a hand without explaining how I suspect a hand is played by population in comparison to theory. Ofc we’re going to have to guess fairly often. That’s basically half of what poker is once you understand a theory spot half decently. I never claimed to have data or be correct. I was just stating my opinion.