Im new to the forums so I apologize in advance if my analysis contains a lot of errors.
I was watching this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNCm7aJCAoQ
And an interesting scenario shows up about 7 minutes in.
It is a 3/6 NLHE game, both Hero and Villain have about 200 BB's or $1200
Hero is OOP with AA, Villain opens to $18, Hero raises to $60
Villain auto 4 bets to $144, Hero 5 bets to $345, Villain calls
AQ4 on the flop, both check. 4 on the turn, both check. 4 on the river.
So I also thought this was a really weird play from the villain, to call a 5 bet with AQo, as did Taylor Caby who was the Hero. So I decided to look at it from the perspective of the Villain here, and it seems that the Hero would only be 5 betting with AK, QQ+, and I guess we can assume he is equally likely to do so for each scenario, like if he 5 bets AK 80% of the time, he 5 bets KK 80% of the time.
On the flop we have AQ4. Since Villain holds AQ, Hero can have only 1 combo AA, 1 combo QQ, 6 combo KK, 8 combo AK. No point in value betting because so much money is already in the pot, and you at this point are losing to everything except KK. Same thing on turn. Now on river you have a boat, 4's full of aces. If hero has AK, you tie. If hero has AA or QQ, you lose to a bigger boat. If hero has KK, you win. Now you need to call $575 to potentially win a $700+575*2 pot.
If you tie because he has AK, 8/16 probability, then you win half of the pot, so $350, because that was dead money.
If you win, 6/16 chance, then you win $700+$575= 1275
If you lose, 2/16 chance, then you lose $575.
Total EV is 8/16*350+6/16*1275-2/16*575= +$580
But Hero would bet OOP on the river with QQ+, AK? QQ and AA for value, KK to push out AK as a bluff, and perhaps AK too as a bluff to push out AK. So it seems to be the right play to call for the villain here. Or am I wrong and only AA, QQ would bet in this scenario?