have been breakeven for the last 5k hands and getting frustrated and it's translating into me become a bit of a payoff wizard, calling when I know I'm busted (and then going on tilt and trying to bluff someone who will call you all the way with 2nd pair and no kicker).
Can we get away from this when the raise comes on the turn?
Opponent is telling me he hit his draw with QT, I just refused to believe him.
I'm pretty sure I've actually lost significantly more money with sets than I have made with them...

It's a coordinated flop and we don't block many top pair hands so pot size bet imo. Dunno about an overbet.
Turn improves many hands to 2 pair and still getting calls from Kx, TJ. Prefer a turn shove over the min raise. Got 10 outs to the nuts and ahead of his range right now anyway
Standard cooler basically, might be worth looking at some of the thin bluffs / bluffcatchers, sounds like some results oriented thinking going on. But that's just the allure of the game, cant help thinking we are the boss of everyone when winning and the worst failure when losing

I think I prefer a turn shove at nl2, the minraise looks pretty nutted

Also, you should call turn even if you knew villain has QT

I'd 3 bet shove turn, he can have 2 pair, some sets maybe. Apart from that I think you played it fine, no need to pot flop IMO, it's not why coordinated and you wqnt him calling with Kx, draws etc.

On a broader note. 5k hands is honestly nothing. You can be a crushing reg and go throigh 50k breakeven streaks, most people don't fully understand just how much variance affects the game. Play 100k hands and see where you're at, that should give you a better idea, although it's still possible to be a wining player and break even, less likely at that point though.

Thanks guys. Just feels like I'm not getting away from enough stuff - you know when you've got "the feeling" but you still don't fold. I've done 10k in total and am up 16BI's at NL2 which isn't bad going, but the last 4-5k have been breakeven/minor downturn, so thats where the frustration is coming in.
Guess that 30BB/100 winrate from the first 5k is unsustainable haha (always knew I was on a heater). Still running 6BI's under EV though so that's keeping me going.

Just want to get the hell out of NL2 as soon as possible though - it's good for honing your fish-frying skills but I wanna get that bankroll up to the point where I can play at least NL10 comfortably asap.

Well played hand. Nothing you can do. Just a cooler.

Your expectations are outside of the factual edge, one can have at a 6max NL table. You are beating the game for more than 10bb per 100 hands over 10K hands. 2nl has a relatively higher rake than other limits. You probably have more than enough skills to move up one or two levels.

In my last 20k hands at 5NL I was beating it for 15bb/100 and recently moved to 10NL and am running at 28bb/100 after 1.5k hands. Is it sustainable? No.

However during your good runs you have to maximise your winning and during the bad runs, minimise your losses. If you are tilting too much then you will forever be break even or losing as your bad sessions will suck all your profits away. If you feel frustrated then take a break and evaluate. After playing so many hands and knowing you have an edged you will tilt far less

Edit: btw you played the hand fine. I think most people are going bust there. However the all in call is +ev in the long run so don't worry about it

I know, but I find it frustrating. Lost 5BI's over 1k hands today, and that's even with making some relatively tight folds. I know its FR, but are we folding here most of the time?





The min-raise just screams something like 2pair or a made straight to me - surely draws would want to jam if it was a semi-bluff...

Maybe just call the donk-bet on the flop, since that keeps all the top pair's etc in his range?
Had the exact same situation with QQ a few hands later, cbet the flop, he minraised again and I called. Turn came a K, and he made a potsized bet. Threw it away again.

I don't like the raise on the flop. Just flat call and play some turns. When V leads pot on this board he is likely trying to defend his hand so he doesn't get outdrawn. He will be doing this with pretty much all 2 pairs/sets/pair + straight draw/flush draws of which you block none. By raising you do get value from his draws but when he re raises he pushes you off your equity with all his value hands of which there are a lot on this board. You want to avoid raising overpairs on coordinated boards like this.

Yeah the logic makes sense. I guess I just veer automatically towards the most aggressive line, not always the best.







What about here? Feel I was wrong to fold here perhaps - A lot of the time the villain is semi-bluffing with a draw or a pair and a draw, but what do I do, just call the turn and then face a jam on the river? Bleurgh!

Perhaps this was a good flop to 3-bet large on, but then what's calling? Sets + Ah9h? This was the same player as before, he had stats like 45/2/1, over about 100 hands, yet he had raised every time I continuation bet with a hand...

These positions always suck. If villain was raising and being aggressive like this every time then you have to make a decision on the flop what you are going to do on certain run outs. At 2NL he could be doing this with a 9, heart draws or a total whiff which you beat but lose to his value 96, sets which there isn't a lot of. When he pots turn you have to make a decision to call/call or fold. If you shove him in on the turn he calls with the worst hand sometimes but mainly not. Calling turn and committing yourself to call any river will keep all his bluff combos in. If you are calling turn to fold river if he bets is a massive leak

I understand the feeling. Don't let it make you incapable of rational thought while you are playing though. If you ever fold a hand like this in this spot just don't tell anyone and don't think about it again. FME, you will likely see one of the 16 combos of QT when you call this bet. When you fold they will show you ATos. , jk. No really, most 2nl Vs aren't GII otr without the nuts on this board, especially when you call turn.

Raise with strong hands and hands that have potential. AA on T98s is far from a strong hand, many combos beat you and many combos will beat you on the turn/river.