Hand is against a 80 vpip guy that insta bets any pieces of board, and even raises with them. Seen quite a few hands where someone opens he calls flop comes 972, and re-pops c-bets with like K2o bottom pair. So basically any piece of a board, either pair, or draw he's betting it, or raising it.


Hero dealt A T UTG

Hero: raises to $1.50. (don't normally open this utg but wanted to play a pot with 80vpip guy and this is way ahead of his range).

UTG+1 folds
CO calls $1.50 (this is 80 vpip guy).
BTN folds
SB Folds
BB calls

Flop ($4.75).

Q, J, 3

BB checks
Hero checks (don't really love c-betting into 2 guys that don't fold).
Co checks

Turn ($4.75)

Q, J, 3 Q

BB checks
Hero checks
CO bets $4.75
BB folds
Hero Calls $4.75

River ($14.25)

Q, J, 3 Q 9

Hero checks
Villain bets $14.75.
Hero: ???? Call or raise?



Ok, so villain really isn't representing anything. He would have bet a Q, J, 3, KT OESD, or poket pair on the flop based on his previous play. It's plausible this time he didn't bet like 22 or something I guess.

His bet sizing looks like nuts or air, and based on his previous play, and his line he never has the nuts here. So, only air left in this bet for the most part. I do have pretty much nut no pair, as he never has AK, but again, it's plausible this time he decided to check 22 or something on the flop for once, but generally expect him to bet even that otf.

Turn, I think I have him beat. At best maybe he turned a draw. But, even if he had like 9Tcc he prob just checks it down if the 9 hit him instead of potting it.


If we raise here we aren't really repping anything which sucks, but maybe can just get him to fold 22 or something. Also opens up the option he can jam, which I think we are obligated to call with reads.


So. Fold? Call? Raise to ensure we aren't beat by like 4th or 5th pair here?

Any thoughts on this?

Basically it boils down to a fairly common situation that comes up frequently. When you have nothing, and villain has nothing, are you calling hoping you have a better 'nothing' than villain does, or are you raising at the expense of the fact that your story is BS? Hoping that his absolute hand strength is weak enough that he just can't call a raise with 4th pair, even though his relative hand strength to a BS story may be good.

Personally I'd just fold. I've found out the hard way in the past that too many people turn crappy pairs into bluffs. Don't go down that road.

Also, this may be wrong, but I'd bet the flop. BB checked against a guy who oozes value on that board, so I doubt he has anything. And while it's true that 80 VPIP guy will call alot, I think he'll still fold the flop like 40%-55% of the time. That, combined with the outrageous value you can get from a guy like this when your ace, your gutshot, or even ace high making it to showdown sometimes... I think you definitely gotta bet the flop. Again, remember that if he calls with some stupid draw or makes 2 pair/lower straight when you hit the nuts, this guy will lose far more money than the average player. You can also expect to get more value than usual if your ace comes in, and you will probably be ahead alot if his missed draws make it to showdown.

I would fold. You said he bets pieces of the board (draws, pairs, ect...). You don't want to call here and get shown T9 that missed its straight draw or 63o that was trying to bluff you. If he was just going bombs away with no equity, like 65o here, then ya, its probably +EV to call, but if he's betting equity pieces too aggressively, you have a ton of hands that would work better as calls in this spot than AT. Ex: 9x, Jx, Qx, TT

What I meant, was he bets or raises with any piece of the board on the flop. I've seen him multiple times bet, or raise someones c-bet with bottom pair, 2nd pair, a pocket pair that is 3rd pair, etc.. on flops. I've been playing with the guy for 2 hours, seen him get to showdown ~25 times, and know him pretty well at this point. He would have bet the flop if he had any piece of it. So, when he elects to not bet when checked to on the flop I do not think he has anything. All that changes on the turn is it gets even less likely he has any piece of the board, and BB, and myself look even weaker after 2 checks and he tries to buy the pot. So, if I'm ahead on the turn, and the backdoor flush doesn't come in, then I pretty much just have to hope he didn't hit one of his 6 outs to make a pair. ~85% of the time he wont. And, the ~15% he does hit 3rd pair, he's probably not going to be potting 3rd pair when I look weak. With the way I look, this bet wants a fold more than it wants a call.




But, this is all besides the point. With my reads I think he's bluffing waaayyyyyy more than the 2 to 1 I'm getting here. Like the vast majority of the time this line is a bluff from this guy. That's not the question. The problem doesn't lie in whether he's bluffing though, it is, I have nothing, and he has nothing, but he could have better 'nothings'. Like have 22 for 6th pair, and turn it into a bluff. Plausible. So, that really brings me to the main question I have. When presented with a spot that both you and villain have nothing, should you call, knowing full well that he could have like 22. Or, should you raise, even though the line looks stupid to ensure that you don't get beat by like 4th-6th pair?

pf: like it
flop: bet or check are both fine I think. But I would probably check, we have no made hand but too much equity to get blown off. Like a bet more when we have position.
turn: fold to the pot sized bet.. it's frustrating but you don't have much invested and I don't like calling pot on turn against a whale with nothing but a gutshot and being OOP
river: I definitely, definitely do not like calling here.. And I don't think bluffraising rivers against whales is profitable, I'd swallow my pride and fold.

Bet the turn

Are you even reading what you're writing? You want to x/r the river and then decide to call a shove with AT high. At 50nl. On Bovada.

Absolutely, when I have enough reads on a player to justify it, and would be getting like 6 to 1 odds. What on earth would he be jamming for value? He picks up a pair of 9's on the river, and decides to not just fold or call my raise but jam over the top of it for value? He has like zero value jamming hands unless he specifically has 99 and decided to check a pair on the flop for the first time in the last ~100 hands I've watched him go to the flop with. No idea what the stakes or site has to do with anything. Poker is poker.

If, I x/r river it looks FOS. So, FOS that you may get jammed over with air some %. Like when a K52 board c-bet gets contested people 3 bet flop with air a decent %.

Regardless this is kind of moot, and doesn't really address the question of: is it better to call and hope you ace high is better than what ever he's bluffing with, or when someone is bluffing do you raise in case they were bluffing with like 6th pair, even if your line looks stupid?