BvB bluffing paired board - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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BvB bluffing paired board

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02-25-2010 , 08:29 AM

ReD aRmY

newbie

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 40

Villain in the hand is running at 19/16/3 over near 800 hands. Attempt to steal just under 30%. He had c/f a couple of turns to me that I can remember after cbetting so i thought his range for the turn c/r was wider than usual since i had a pretty aggressive image. Anyway just wondering if this play is good in the long run against this type of guy.

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $52.10
Hero (BB): $78.10
CO: $52.60
BTN: $65.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with K

2 folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) 9

(2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.00) 6

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB raises to $10, Hero raises to $26,

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02-25-2010 , 08:58 AM

BurnleyMik

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,242

He could be making a play back at you here, but it sort of looks like he set you up for when you floated him again.

What hand are you trying to represent, as your line isn't consistent with much except a 9 (what do you defend with that has a 9, do you defend pretty wide BVB?) or 33 and possbily 66.

Your line is good if he is a spewy/tilty player because he could well just be pissed at you keep floating him and his range is then made up of a lot of bluffs, which he now has to fold, but if he is solid and not tilty then I see him having the goods here.

This one is extremely villain dependant IMO.

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02-25-2010 , 10:17 AM

ReD aRmY

newbie

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 40

I thought that he was possibly tilting, i was on his left on a couple of tables. I felt comfortable playing villain post flop with position so there are some 9's in my range here which i would probably be flatting the flop with.

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02-25-2010 , 10:20 AM

BurnleyMik

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,242

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReD aRmY

To be fair now he can only stack off with over pairs here IMO, which should just be a small part of his stealing range.

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02-25-2010 , 11:12 AM

Stackajawea

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,100

if you think he's playing back at you, you're going to be better off flatting his turn raise and shoving the river so that you rep something and can actually squeeze more money out of his bluffing range in the process.

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02-25-2010 , 11:30 AM

Wilbur

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,465

I think the turn 3b is terrible spew. He's much more likely to have the goods here.

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02-25-2010 , 12:26 PM

BurnleyMik

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,242

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stackajawea

If you flat here any he bet he makes into that pot on the river is going to commit him to the hand. There would be $27 in the pot and I doubt he is giving up and will almost certainly be donk leading river, any decent bet he makes here ($15+ min) is gonna mean he would already have more than half his stack in the middle and he is likely to then to call you pretty wide if you do shove.

If you really wanna bluff this you did it in the right place IMO. That said it looks a lot like he was just waiting for a spot to catch you.

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02-25-2010 , 12:28 PM

Stackajawea

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,100

Quote:

Originally Posted by BurnleyMik

you are never committed to a hand when you are bluffing. if we think villain is bluffing, why would he all of a sudden call a river shove when he doesn't beat any kind of value range?

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02-25-2010 , 12:42 PM

BurnleyMik

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,242

villain acts first on river and almost has to bet. If we then shove with all the money in the pot and the odds he can call lighter My point being hands like 77/88, maybe 55 etc, are now justified to call.

but yeah you are right him calling with air.

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02-25-2010 , 12:57 PM

#10

BurnleyMik

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,242

Another thing...

If we bluff the turn and he has the goods and shoves we can fold and we lose $26. If we flat and he fires at river, our bluff has to be our stack, so once again if he has the goods we lose much more.

I am not in the mood to do the maths, but I *think* we lose more than we gain long term by raising this turn rather than shoving over on the river, in terms of what we win/lose overall. (if that makes any sense lol)

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