Thoughts on sizing and bluff OTR?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.25(BB)
HJ ($10.56) [VPIP: 25.3% | PFR: 18.9% | AGG: 36.1% | Flop Agg: 40.6% | Turn Agg: 35.8% | River Agg: 26.3% | 3-Bet: 8.3% | 4-Bet: 12.5% | Hands: 2025]
CO ($53.86) [VPIP: 26.6% | PFR: 15.2% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 36.8% | Turn Agg: 30% | River Agg: 28.6% | 3-Bet: 6.3% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 80]
HERO ($29.72) [VPIP: 24.8% | PFR: 21.5% | AGG: 34.2% | Flop Agg: 40.1% | Turn Agg: 27.4% | River Agg: 30.8% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | 4-Bet: 16.4% | Hands: 229369]
SB ($28.58) [VPIP: 15% | PFR: 9.7% | AGG: 39.5% | Flop Agg: 39.1% | Turn Agg: 45.5% | River Agg: 25% | 3-Bet: 8.9% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 213]
BB ($25.00) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 17.7% | AGG: 32% | Flop Agg: 39.1% | Turn Agg: 32.3% | River Agg: 15% | 3-Bet: 5.7% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 11.5% | Hands: 284]

Dealt to Hero: 9 Q

HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.35

Hero SPR on Flop: [18.77 effective]
Flop ($1.30): K 5 5
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.35 (Rem. Stack: 28.77), BB Calls $0.35 (Rem. Stack: 24.05)

Turn ($2.00): K 5 5 J
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1 (Rem. Stack: 27.77), BB Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: 23.05)

River ($4.00): K 5 5 J 8
BB Checks, HERO Bets $6 (Rem. Stack: 21.77)

Hmm, probably a judgment call on how sticky your opponents are, but doesn't feel like a great move to try to push him off kq, although you do block it. Guess balance is probably ok, bluffs are aq at qt q9 t9, value is ak kk kq kj 65s. Might be a bit bluff heavy but sizing helps with that, depends how many 5s you play 54s 75s etc?

I bet bigger flop - 1/2 pot or so

river i prefer 2x pot
{i bet my 100% eq nuts and 0 eq bluffs 2x on river}

We're button we should have a lot more 5s than that. I'm standard opening all A5 along with K5s 65s 54s 75s 85s, with some small amount of 53s 95s 65o

Hand looks well played to me OP, as long as you don't do it with too high a frequency

Turn sizing looks bit weird to me. After cbetting range we should bet polarized with bigger sizing ott.

Nitpick but this is probably the worst Q9o combo to bluff. Qd blocks fewer KQo than Qh, and 9h doesn't block K9s (they probably should be folding K9o pre right? Though population doesn't 100%).

I kind of doubt river is an overbet spot. 8 doesn't change a ton. I think population will shrug and say this is either total air or a 5+, and call with a ton of K's bc blockerz

turn looks like ob spot

ding ding ding solver obs turn for 125% (including with this combo), never uses 2/3 size. It also overbets river.

If I node lock so that we 2/3 turn with 40% range, it still overbets. Thinks this combo is slightly too good (it starts bluffing Q7s), but you can chalk that up to a quirk of my ranges

who has more 5s in your range? BTN or BB?
what is the 3bet range you excluded for BB?

this guy is 3betting only 6% - he may flat JJ fwiw
and considering DDP - add 10% weights to QQ-AA flats in BB range

It's snowie 3x ranges, so BU has more. I bet you're right, probably changes with that in mind

These paired boards are confusing. Like we never OB on AAx boards but I guess we do on 55x?

I think a good question is which paired boards are not OB's OTT.

I know AAx isn't - going to have to study the others.

look which card is paired and who is supposed to have it more
is the unpaired card connected,suited or far away, unsuited?
what is the turn card? how close/connected it is to the flop and both the ranges?

if both of u are expected to have the same #of low paired cards, its effect should be negated.

Okay so let's say it is TTx - do we have overbets OTT or no?

depends on the X and suited.

check doug hull video on flop textures (it is for srp though but will give you an idea )

This is SRP.

I don't think this is a well known topic. Will have to check it out.

thx for the video suggestion.

it is about cbetting flop in general not overbetting per se

video talks about % of time villain will call based on his range (u can see what he assumed), flop texture (rainbow, rainbow suited, paired, paired 2 tone , monotone etc) in srp

see if u can download his excel

It depends on flop actions and how many trips V has in his range and how many FH he has . If we ob ad V can only call with trips and not overfold its not ob, at least my guess.