Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($200) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Cold Call: 9.2% | Hands: 325603]
UTG ($120.89) [VPIP: 31.3% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 32]
HJ ($258) [VPIP: 15.6% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 32]
CO ($222.37) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 25]
BTN ($648.65) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 22.6% | AGG: 75% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 75% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 16.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 32]
SB ($61) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 17]

Dealt to Hero: T 6

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $4, SB Folds, HERO Calls $2

Hero SPR on Flop: [21.78 effective]
Flop ($9): 3 T 9
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $6 (Rem. Stack: $638.65), HERO Calls $6 (Rem. Stack: $190)

Turn ($21): 3 T 9 5
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $28 (Rem. Stack: $610.65), HERO Calls $28 (Rem. Stack: $162)

River ($77): 3 T 9 5 A
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $610.65 (allin), HERO ?

Seems like a 0ev spot? Feels like he can have all the Ax and do this for value because you 3 bet pf with a good portion and most of the rest fold on the turn. So literally every Ace is clean for him.

My intuition (which could be wrong) leads me to believe people are more likely to OB all or the majority of their straight draws OTT than all or the majority of their Ax combos.

Yeah I feel like that too. So maybe he doesn't have that much Ax as I thought initially but I feel like he could have some for sure. Probably mostly like A2, A3, A4, A6, A7, A8 Still feels like a lot of combos.

I dont think regs bet TT big on flop and turn enough for the blockers to really be effective, intuition thinks most regs will underbluff 2x pot shoves by river (esp on dry runouts where they have to turn like bottom pair into bluff jams) so folding. Very curious what the data shows tho if you have some on the b b jam line from regs srp ip haha.

River A is a brick. Even if he hits tp with A3 ob jam is to thin for value. Most Ax will check at some point because they have some SDV on this board.

Nice spot to call esp vs right opponent/pool.

QJ/78s/33/99/AA, imo

With only 17 hands on him idk about calling river

idk seems like a pretty straightforward call to me. Minimal value being repped and lots of potential bluffs that we unblock, plus redline warrior regs love blasting in spots like this

Pretty much my thoughts as well.

Not to mention wide range spot probably made even wider with villain going with the MR OTB.

Data would have to show this is massively underbluffed for me to feel bad about calling here.

I would call.

Value combos are sparse and there's a lot of potential bluffs given that he has all the offsuit variants of QJ, KQ and KJ in addition to 76s, 78s, 64s.

I think the kind of regs who are aggressive and imaginative enough to take this line can very easily end up losing control of their frequencies or else just deliberately overbluff this spot because they assume (probably correctly) that pool overfolds Tx on this runout.

Okay thanks guys I did end up calling.

I looked up data after for B70-B-Jam and spot is overbluffed and the T high flop/T high flop + Ace river are good data points to call.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($200) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Cold Call: 9.2% | Hands: 325667]
UTG ($120.89) [VPIP: 31.3% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 32]
HJ ($258) [VPIP: 15.6% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 32]
CO ($222.37) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 25]
BTN ($648.65) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 22.6% | AGG: 75% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 75% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 16.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 32]
SB ($61) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 17]

Dealt to Hero: T 6

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $4, SB Folds, HERO Calls $2

Hero SPR on Flop: [21.78 effective]
Flop ($9): 3 T 9
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $6 (Rem. Stack: $638.65), HERO Calls $6 (Rem. Stack: $190)

Turn ($21): 3 T 9 5
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $28 (Rem. Stack: $610.65), HERO Calls $28 (Rem. Stack: $162)

River ($77): 3 T 9 5 A
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $610.65 (allin), HERO Calls $162 (allin)



Data:

Call is good.

wow nice call, really didn't expect this size to be so overbluffed, does this data translate well vs weaker/more passive regs or in microstakes?

All data is from 50nl+

I wouldn't label a reg passive unless you have a good amount of hands on them since this type of thinking becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Exactly. Stronger Ax will check at some point because there's SDV. You block a ton of his value hands. Just seems like a call, but it's probably pretty close because of the site.

Try to never peep results before comments, but took a look at this one. NH DDP.