Game is $5/$10 NL (live) full ring

Villain has a pretty loose image and is a well known gambler, everyone knows he lost $80,000 on Baccarat over the past week or so

Villain's stack = $2400

Hero's stack = $1450

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Hero is MP with Q K

Limped round to Hero, Hero raises to $50, Villain (Cutoff) calls, BB calls

(Pot = $150)

Flop is J 10 8

BB checks, Hero bets $80, Villain calls, BB folds

(Pot = $310)

Turn is 8

Hero checks, Villain checks


River is A

Hero bets $180, Villain raises to $680


Hero ??

Do we ever fold here?

no, but ill probably shove

What hand do we put this guy on, something like 78, 89, J8?

I don't think he does this with AJ

was the weak value bet to induce? Description of villain is he overvalues hands and he gambles a lot. Sounds more like a call. Also sounds like you lost to a ******ed boat or quads given that you're posting here about a pretty standard spot in live.

shoving is terrible, this is closer to a fold than a shove and I can't see doing anything other than calling here.

Results aside, what is his hand range here given the way this was played? I can only think of 8x or a full house, or perhaps KQ for a chop. I do not think he does this with AJ or AT or JT.

My question is what range of hands do we put him on, and given this range, is a call in this spot +EV or not??

Villain does indeed overvalue his hands and gamble alot but he is more of a loose/passive station type player than a LAG/bluffer.

The weak value bet was not to induce, as I said he doesn't bluff, he just overvalues the showdown value of his hands in general. So I guess it is possible that he thinks 8x is good here. The weak value bet was more of a blocker bet because if I checked he might bet $400-500 and I wanted a cheap showdown

wat

shove 100%

Well if he's the type to overvalue hands you bet he's going to take this line with AJ AT 8x, split pot JT Q9, etc. And given that range and the fact that he overvalues hands it's def more a call. I don't agree with shoving at all.

Oh yeah, your description of villain being a loose/passive station should have been in your original post b/c that definitely changes perception and reads.

villain checked back turn and lost 80 thousand dollars this week in the pit, and you think shoivng for like 600 more dollars is terrible with the nut straight?