Evening guys. Just got into this weird spot. The V seems to be solid TAG 23/17/2.0 over 250 hands.
Thought process. So when I faced the turn raise it didn't make much of a sense to me. Although he could be playing 99, 33 that way, maybe A9s, but that's about it. He also could be semibluffing strong draws like JTss, spades with queen in it, other spade draws. I also think my reduced turn sizing might've induced his spazzes. People at micros tend to draw that way: bet flop 70-80% of pot and less on turn when it doesn't hit. Anyway, would you call river ?

Calling river because the flushdraw bricked, no straights or full houses are possible and we are near the top of our range.

Sent from my VS870 4G

Gotta call. You lose to just 6 combos. Folding top of our range can be too expensive in a long term.

I probably shove turn given your description of villain.

Ye, that's the safe way to play that. But don't you think I will fold out all his random spazzes which are going to bluff a lot rivers ?

when is the last time you saw somebody float the flop, raise the turn on that board with complete air?

Don't shove turn

Yeah that was my thoughts also , why would you wannt him to fold worse hands on the turn? Im sure he will fold his FDs and if u call he gotta bluff the river. I think its better to call down than get it in on the turn. If he got A9 the money will get in anyway on the river.

Its a wired spot. I´m playing also NL10 right now and almost all regular never bluff like that. At this limit from regulars i see just value plays ( from solid regular). Do you think he is leveling himselfe ? Why would he raise with 9s/3s that flop? In this spot i only have sets wit this line.

I swear this board is obsessed with keeping in bluffs.

Whatever extra equity you pick up by the river coming a blank and him deciding to bluff river on a blank is more than off set by the times that he folds a draw that would have hit river and you either pay it off if its hidden or check fold and lose the pot if its a spade, he has a worse 2 pair, river comes a spade and you miss value, you possibly folding best hand on the river if it comes a spade and he really has air.

The EV of just calling the turn and hoping river comes a blank and he spazzes out and bluffs on rivers that just aren't very good to bluff, is minimal with current stacksizes.

A turn shove isn't even really pricing him out that much if he has a combo draw. I mean hes calling like 5.50 in to a pot of 20 and getting almost 3 to 1.

Its not as if you are 200 bbs deep in which case the turn is going to be really hard to play and you are pretty much forced to call and pray.

effective stacks are 100bbs. get it in. you would get it in with a set.

If im calling that turn i´m calling any river. Like i said i think that calling down on any river is better than get it in on the turn.

Never folding on any street given positions and probably just ripping it in on the turn and making him stack his draws or sweat his lesser two pairs. We can discount 33 because a solid player won't be flatting that pre in this spot.

Conversely, if we had a combo draw in this spot we'd be inclined to b/j turn with this stack depth.

As I said my turn sizing could've induced, since it indicates draw. It happens man, regs spazz out in nl10. It's not a rule or anything, it just happens from time to time and why not give it a shot.

+

Thank you for exhaustive post.

We can't. Everyone call small pps there to setmine. Why would you lower spr by 3beting. obv never folding pp otb.

What value range does villain rep on the turn that we beat?

Sent from my VS870 4G

Definitely wouldn't discount out any sets. People love to set-mine, he's on the button, and at least the SB is bad.

I'm not thrilled about calling down here because value ranges are so strong and there aren't a ton of draws. Maybe some spades that improved to a straight draw are likely bluffs.

Still calling for reasons Franchise said and villain can have some worse 2 pairs.

The reason I'm one for being "obsessed" with keeping bluffs in is because value ranges are narrow and bluffs are infrequent.

I wouldnt discount sets too, to only call with sets on flop i think i like.
I dont know, if he raises turn with very good draws like JT with Flushdraw and fire every river and do the same with sets, would be nice balanced.
I dont think you are most of the times ahead on river, but you dont have to, only a little over 25%.
The proplem with worser 2 pairs is clear heere, not many calls with A9s and even if, this is only 3 combinations, but 3 Combinations of 33 and 3 of 99.
But i dont know how often he bet the river, if he dont hit, do he has much FE after your turncall.

So because of that sometimes even top two are a fold, sometimes, because i dont see other 2 pairs here and i dont think, that all players raise with JT, just because they dont want to get 3-bettet allin and cant realize their Equity.

He can also have QQ or AK and dont 3-bet it, because this is the new style against UTG.
But QQ is only 1 combo and AK im quite sure he will not raise turn to isolate against AQ, only he think he can fold it out, but people dont fold 2 pairs on this limit often enouph to justify that.

I don't understand either. People always think they're getting raised 'by a draw' on the flop or turn, so they call down hoping it bricks off, then get stacked by villain's value range. Or even worse, they think villain is 'making a move' on them.

ya, you only have a bluffcatcher. river fold is more profitable

wat

Flatting baby pairs on the BTN vs a CO open is frankly a leak - 3b or fold pre son. When we do hit our miraculous set his range is unlikely going to be strong enough to pay us off and conversely will include a tonne of suited connectors which are golden at cracking sets

right. but there are plenty of solid players in micro limit poker that flat small pairs like every time. they may not be playing skalansky to the book, but they are breaking even or winning in the long run.

shove

Winner post. This is extremely accurate.

I still don't understand why a majority people think that if the river blanks and no spade hits you think he's guaranteed to bluff at it. I'd say a majority of the time people are going to check back, take the loss, and move on. Just get it in on the turn.

lmao just no.

You are allowed to play pairs for other reasons than just setmining.

What the ****? This is by far the most ridiculous post in this thread

You have a god dam clear value hand here

Shove and make money instead of being a nit and calling

Calling is ridiculously bad here

^^

How did you fall for that post?