Thoughts?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
HJ ($10.79) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 42.2% | 3-Bet: 7.8% | Hands: 264]
CO ($14.88) [VPIP: 45% | PFR: 27.5% | AGG: 27.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 43]
BTN ($13.04) [VPIP: 31.1% | PFR: 20.7% | AGG: 26.4% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | Hands: 766]
SB ($12.33) [VPIP: 22.4% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 18.8% | 3-Bet: 3.1% | Hands: 87]
HERO ($10.00) [VPIP: 26.4% | PFR: 22.3% | AGG: 33% | 3-Bet: 10.8% | Hands: 90350]

Dealt to Hero: K T

HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.22, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.12

Hero SPR on Flop: [19.96 effective]
Flop ($0.49): 8 T 5
HERO Checks, CO Checks

Turn ($0.49): 8 T 5 J
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.36 (Rem. Stack: 14.30), HERO Calls $0.36 (Rem. Stack: 9.42)

River ($1.21): 8 T 5 J A
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.60 (Rem. Stack: 13.70), HERO Raises To $3.10 (Rem. Stack: 6.32)

what are we trying to get him to fold? He's capped range somewhat on flop so that he shouldn't have TT 88 55 T8 JJ AA but he then uncaps turn to still have AJ JT J8 KQ 79, tho we block KQ, and they should bet flop with KQ / 79. I think that we should checkraise or lead sets / 79 / JT / J8 on turn, and 2 pairs don't checkraise river for value / AJ is 3-bet pre so we are saying that we have specifically 12 combos KQ that we didn't lead on turn or are checkraising 7 combos AT vs his 2 pair combos as he should never have any set with this line? Seems like their value range is kind of 2 pair heavy if they bet their draws / overpairs on the flop, though I think we have removed a lot of value from our range with turn flat, and I don't know if they fold it.

this is also making some assumptions about your preflop range construction, which definitely has bearing on this.

fold river, nothing that is betting for value is folding in this spot

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Why are you raising river?

Skickat från min PLK-L01 via Tapatalk

This is really good, maybe bit bigger?

I don't think I want to bluff this player when diamonds/76 draw missed. (45/27/0, 43h)

I've been out the game a while, I didn't know trying to bluff a 45/27 had become a thing

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Hand might be too strong to bluff, we don't have many better hands except adxd, jdxd, at, and jt.

so you check call KQ on the turn?

probably just the KQx KxQ combos.

You'd rather call?

I think it's reasonable. Our opponent really only reps aj and j8.

I also don't think we'd have much adxd after further review because we 3bet that pre and I'd never have KQs.

I thought about calling as well, seems like it has some merit, as I think this runout can definitely have some delayed barrels, and he's removed a lot of value combos from his range, so if we call and are beat, as simple said I expect to see 2 pair heavy value range, pretty much JT / J8 / AJ, whereas he might have more delayed barrels to fold us off of showdown. We also block JT, which I think probably should check back flop.

I'd just call river, we have a pretty good hand and the bet is small

what hands would you bluff?

Bad board to do this. Most of your strong hands want to c/r turn, and not a good spot for thinner value c/r otr (A8 for example, prob not value c/r, at least for this sizing).

uhm idk T9/98, mby nothing at all?
but I'd consider donking flop or probing turn vs a guy who's shaping up to be fishy

Regardless of whether this is a good board/spot to bluff, I'd advise just don't bluff fish. Like almost ever. A 45/27 is not folding anything reasonable.

I'd block turn/river

Villain has at least Ax here most ott. You don't really rep that much, I mean like some Ax 2pairs combos, A8, A5 and AT, so maybe a thinking player will bet fold AQ/AK (I honestly doubt it though) but this guy looks a bit fishy as well so even less likely to fold.

I understand it to some extent, but I don't like it unless we have very specific reads

wouldn't bluff this player and anyway, you can't be nutted on the river so you should raise smaller

It's generally not profitable long term to try and bluff people off most hands when so many draws whiff on the river, especially Ax when they are a fish. That's kind of a poker 101. Combine that w/ the fact you're not really repping much that would want to CR. Doesn't make a ton of sense to C/c KQ on the turn. A8/A5 wouldn't CR, which leaves maybe AT that might CR, but still doesn't totally add up.