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Blocker bet or he's got it? Blocker bet or he's got it?

05-16-2015 , 09:44 AM
Vilain is 82/8. Needless to say he's a huge donkey. Habitually those min bets can be just anything.. low pair, huge hands to induce, draws. What do you guys think of his river? Is this an 8, a Q or a flush?

[converted_hand]
Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #36411321

Hero (BTN): $19.24 (120.2 bb)
SB: $34.74 (217.1 bb)
BB: $16.40 (102.5 bb)
MP: $45.61 (285.1 bb)
CO: $21.27 (132.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
MP calls $0.16, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.64, 2 folds, MP calls $0.48

Flop: ($1.52) 8 Q Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.12, MP calls $1.12

Turn: ($3.76) 2 (2 players)
MP bets $0.16, Hero raises to $3.04, MP calls $2.88

River: ($9.84) 6 (2 players)
MP bets $3.36
Blocker bet or he's got it? Quote
05-16-2015 , 09:59 AM
He's a whale. On this flop I'd be betting pot minimum. On turn, considering he's called a decent bet then minbet in front I read this as being interested in the hand. As a whale I assume when he's interested he'll call any sized bet. Particularly because he's deep I'd assume he's extra happy to gamble for half his stack because "he's still ahead for the session!" if he loses. Therefore I'd be tempted to raise allin.

On river I think I'm still tempted to raise him allin. He's playing 80% of hands so maybe all suited cards and they make up less than 1/3 of his flop range so 1/12 of his flop range is spade-spade. If he plays all Qx then that's 15% of starting hands so a bit less than 1/5 his flop range. QX being twice as prevalent as flushes and him being unable to fold any of them surely makes river shove +ev?

Also I think fish love to just shove when they have it on river so maybe he never has flush anyway.
Blocker bet or he's got it? Quote
05-16-2015 , 10:09 AM
Bit bigger otf, just call river. Never folding
Blocker bet or he's got it? Quote
05-16-2015 , 10:27 AM
I`m not asking if I should fold the river but if I should ship it considering he's never folding a Q and may not fold an 8
Blocker bet or he's got it? Quote
05-16-2015 , 12:36 PM
Just calling river is way weak vs this whale IMO
Blocker bet or he's got it? Quote
05-16-2015 , 04:43 PM
callings fine. he's not calling worst vs a raise. whale would still ship Q on turn so can rule that out by river
Blocker bet or he's got it? Quote
05-16-2015 , 07:08 PM
Just call river
Blocker bet or he's got it? Quote
05-17-2015 , 05:29 AM
Wimps! Suggesting a guy with vpip 80% is going to do any one particular thing is projecting reg tendencies onto a pure and total gambler playing any way he likes. You could shove here and he could call way wider than flushes. Tbh maybe he doesn't even know flush is better than trips! Maybe he hasn't recognised there is a flush there. Maybe he has 8X and is afraid of Qx but more afraid of being bluffed off his "hand".


Yeah, fine maybe he would shove Qx on turn but I see plenty of lower vpip fish waiting till river to shove worse hands than trips into the face of thee flushes.

Ultimately we have no idea what he's doing but we know he has way more Qx/8x than he has flush draws on the turn. He doesn't have to call that many to get to the river with more Qx/8x than flushes so, IMO, choice is between playing it safe and gambling but I think it is a good gamble myself.
Blocker bet or he's got it? Quote

      
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