FE, i usually respect your advice on this forum. But really? checking back this flop is terrible imo. Correct me if im wrong, but if you're checking back this flop with two pair, how are we ever extracting value.

How much value do you think you're extracting on this board, and from what? 3 streets?

You extract value by betting safe turns and rivers, and maybe hero calling bad ones if you think still you're ahead. You only get a little bit of value this way - but there's only a little bit of value to be had with this hand on this board versus this villain. If ~20BB extra in value bets goes in you're +++++EV. If stacks go in you're toast.

Hey, you wanted people to berate you!

I think you should never fold the flop and even if you should atleast I can't bring myself to fold top two in a spot like this... just about never. It's just the big 2+2 choir saying their usual mantra of "fold" whenever someone bets into them and they have less than the nuts or the 2nd nuts. Just like Moonshine said it.

Anyways...

I came up with this stovements and I worked my ass off for it.


Board: Ad Td 6d 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 35.91% 05.00% 316 44.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 59.091% 54.09% 05.00% 476 44.00 { 66, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 5d4d, ATo, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs }


TT is unsure whether it's in the range. Maybe and maybe not, only OP knows what's Villain tendency of 3-betting it pre. But it's only 1 combination so it doesn't really matter.

His turn bet is pretty small and people like to bet bigger with low flushes esp. this deep to prevent a board 4-flushing and ending up in an awkward spot on the river.

Also, I would expect him to bet bigger also with at least 66, TT and maybe AT & A6.


So, we can make a fixed stove range:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.864% 42.61% 06.25% 300 44.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 51.136% 44.89% 06.25% 316 44.00 { 66, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs }



Our equity is higher than it should be since, but since I'm a PokerStove fish I cannot adjust 66, ATo, A6s and TT to like 25-40% of their actual amount of combinations, which is probably more realistic for a smaller turn bet. By intuition, I would assume that it lowers our equity to somewhere around 35-38%.


Pot is $915 and we need $350 to call. That is, we need to 28,8% to be good.
Using either of the stove results, we're getting right price to call.

My hunch was also to fold to the turn. Bigger sample size with especially check-raise flop stat would help a lot.

PS. Even if he has like 66 you have enough to bluff him off on the river if board 4-flushes and he checks. Also I wouldn't expect him to check K never on the 4-flush board, so I think you have some bluff outs atleast. (As well as your 10% for the boat.)

Wrong.

We should bet this flop just about every time.
It just blows my mind how often people start thinking in retrospect cause something goes wrong in the hand or they end up facing a tough decision.

So, we should give all sorts of crap hands like 22-88, Tx+d, brodway+diamond a freebie draw just because we fail to find enough reasons to valuebet top two?

And since when are we instantly playing for stacks whenever we bet this flop?

i mean yeah, thatd be the plan

in my experience when people c/r so big in monotone flops, they have ~always flushes

fwiw, weighting those hands doesn't change the equity by that much

Board: Ad Td 6d 8c

Wins Ties Equity
48.20% 2.33% 50.53% ( AsTs )
47.15% 2.33% 49.47% ( 66(25), A6s(25), KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo(25), KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs )


Board: Ad Td 6d 8c

Wins Ties Equity
46.69% 3.39% 50.08% ( AsTs )
46.53% 3.39% 49.92% ( 66(40), A6s(40), KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo(40), KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs )

you'd have to be a huge nit not to bet this flop.

and FE, saying to check back this flop is extremely results oriented. and you know that

stove-aments don't factor in the river (where a diamond kills you and you get value owned often)

Hand looks fine to me, unless you have more history

lol ... he IS a huge nit

while his advice is mostly good, this spot he is definitely letting the inner net control him over logic imo

GSWarriors

mhmmmm sure you do.

got any results to prove this?

Are you guys serious shove the turn

i'd just fold the flop...this kind of c/r sizing is extremely unbalanced toward "omg i wanna play a big pot with my nutted hand" and none of those hands are worse than AT

To everyone saying fold flop, look at the percentage of hands you're going to fold to a flop c/r. It's really high. 9 sets, maybe 15 flushes, some hands that include the Kd. I haven't counted hands, but it's got to be very +EV for villain to c/r his air rather than fold it.

Is there an easy way to plug in a range that you're opening and a range that you're calling a c/r and then get a % of the time that you call a c/r? I could do it by counting hands with a spreadsheet but it would take forever. I don't see how to do it with pokerstove because I want it to take into account the fact that the Ad is on the flop, so that drastically reduces the number of 2-diamond hands we can get to the flop with.

Not betting the flop would be pretty terrible.

schwza you seem like a smart guy, so im gonna ask you

I see this type of statement all the time on here and I don't really understand it. Yes, folding flop would allow you to be exploited, but only if A) villain is capable of making the move, B) villain realizes you are folding pretty much your entire range and C) you play with villain enough to even be exploited.

Are any of these instances true in this case? I understand your logic, but for THIS HAND where there isn't real history, villain has done nothing to show us he gets out of line, etc etc etc what does it matter if you fold pretty much everything?

Is there anything bb checks calls with? If bb check raises or check folds 100% and we fold 100% to check raises why would we ever bet the flop?

yes he check calls with stuff. and who said anything about folding to 100% of c/rs? we are folding because its a huge c/r.

i just dont get it. the bet is small/we have outs/ stacksizes are big and we can bluff him of the better hand if diamond hits >>>> call turn imo.

You have to call the flop, you almost have odds to draw to the boat.

After calling the flop you should call turn, your getting too good a price to fold.

+1

I would probably just fold flop if I was playing well. But a flop call isn't so bad consideirng we have some (almost) nut outs and some good bluff outs.

Also, I know this is FPS but how sexy would it be to turn our hand into a bluff and raise turn/shove river and get villain to fold his non-nut flush/set? If he has the nut flush he's probably going to shove over a c/r on the turn a decent % of the time just because he's OOP on the river (altho obv if he's good he should realise a turn shove is not great by him considering his nitty image)

And he's never going to be putting us on a bluff here so it should work a very large % of the time. :P

How do u guys play 66 here?