Vilain is 20/13 on 100 hands. He hasn't been out of line yet. I around around 20/17 myself.

Baluga says to fold here. However, I don't think he's representing much... How's the call? If you want to fold the turn, what range do you give him?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (MP): $111.30
CO: $25.10
BTN: $50.00
SB: $115.80
BB: $81.25
UTG: $102.60

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with J A
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) J 7 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.50, BB raises to $22, Hero calls $14.50

call is fine here if you called pretty much any river bet but realize you have to call that river bet no matter what falls. if it were me I'd fold b/c as you said "he hasn't been out of line yet in 100 hands". TPTK isn't a hand I'm trying to play for 160BB stacks and if villain is pretty decent, checking the turn is best since 88-TT will look to bet a lot on the river even if villain isn't very aggressive.

What hand range did you put him on?

If he thinks you c-bet a lot (including double barrels) and he hit a set, he could easily play it this way OOP. I think a bigger ace would have 3-bet pre-flop, but not always. It is not a steal, he has to give you credit for a good hand so lets weight these:

He has a better hand and was extracting your double barrel before c/r'ing.
He has air and is trying to push you off you AK/AQ or get you to fold a jack.

If he has air you are paying $14.50 to win $24.75 but you won't get any more from him unless he bluffs again on the river and you call. If he puts another $20 in the pot on the river as a follow up on a bluff, you are calling $35 to win $45.
If he has you beat he will again bet the river for $20 and if you call you will end up losing $35. So he has to be turn bluffing with air about 43% of the time or more to make this a good call on the turn. IMHO. Against a player with 100 hands played with a solid line, I am not willing to believe this move is being made with such high frequency and I let it go at the turn.

I think his range includes smaller jacks, middle pairs and flush draws... The jacks will call, I make the flush draws pay and 88-TT could very well call the turn bet.

We have no reason to believe villain is bluffing us, and he is never doing this with KJ or QJ. This is a pretty easy fold. His range is sets and maybe overpairs he decided to trap you with.

never said they'd C/R you on the turn but if you had some specific read that villain would turn them into a bluff on the turn, a call is fine here.

The turn card isn't a good card to second barrel so he can't expect me to second barrel it. So if he has a set, he'll most likely miss his check raise and give me a free card on a flush draw board.. I think most people will raise the flop with a set.

I think we have to bet/fold the turn. Checking here is not going to induce many hands I beat to bet the river but it will potentially let him outdraw me. There are too many cards that could land and hero loses, so I think the turn bet has to be made, but against a solid villain hero has to fold to the c/r since it will be -ev to make this call and fold to a river bet and the odds are not good enough to call here and on the river. Until I have a read that he can do this with close to the correct frequency to make calls good, I am folding and looking for a better spot.

Overpair OOP and he doesn't raise? Don't think I can give him credit for that.

Don't you think that there are a lot more draws in his range than sets here?

I like your thought process, but I'm 95% sure he's not on this level. Turn is a sneer, mutter cuss words under your breath, and fold

EDIT: Oh and if he doesn't have a set, he has 89dd or 68dd imo. Even if he isn't representing much, he's probably not floating OOP often with complete air. And why would he want to turn top pair into a bluff? Doesn't make much sense to me.

Since it is FT, he may have mined you, how often do you double barrel? He may think the flop is so dry that raising the flop would not be the best way to get the most money from you and wants you to make a hand you are willing to call more money into the pot with. Regardless, I don't think this is a bluff often enough to make a call here (and the following call on the river) a winner.

I don't 2nd barrel a lot. Only on good cards.

well what baffles me as odd is OP saying he isn't repping much. I think if OP hasn't seen him make a marginal play in a big pot in 100 hands, it seems to me he's repping only hands that beat OP's. and yes b/f is standard here but if I figure villain is competent enough to realize that we're semi-deep and knows a C/R bluff may very well have good folding equity, checking turn would be fine. However, this villain is far and few between.

What draws does a solid player call a MP raise from when he is in the BB? I think you will see mid/low PP and suited connectors, but I think with any part of the flop that doesn't beat Top pair he tries his check raise on the flop where it won't cost him as much when he is wrong. I think when he decides to do this on the turn he is ahead of Top pair way more than on a draw.

Well just so you know, I suck at note taking so he could have done something "weird" that I didn't notice. Most of these hands were datamined anyway.

I didn't say he was solid. 20/13 isn't "solid" to me. I think KQdd, KJdd, 56dd, 89dd, 9Tdd, JTdd are all in his range.

You're right that a raise on the flop doesn't cost him as much. But nothing has more FE than a c/r on the turn .

I guess I could be leveling myself, again.

Aggression factor of Villain?? My guess is you're beat here, and if you aren't he probably has equity in the pot...just don't see too many 20/13 check raise bluffing but it depends. A lot of people are still slowplaying sets that's a decent part of his range. Doesn't really make sense to so this with a jack as it's basically turning it into a bluff and he'd probably try to get to showdown with a weaker jack. Not too many Villains will do this with a flush draw either, but it's possible if he's really aggressive

His AF was like 4 but on 100 hands, it doesn't mean anything.

Not to be a huge nit but

Implies that you witnessed his play for the 100 hands relevant to the stats.

True..misleading.

I'd say vs. a relative unknown it would be wise to assume check raise turn is a strong hand. If you've seen him spew a few times, it would be much closer

Yeah overpair is not likely, just saying it's possible because people play bad.

I think most villains, if they are the type to play their draws aggressively, raise on the flop. I don't think too many people at uNL play their draws this way. Maybe if he has 86 he might play it this way (still don't think it's that likely), but there's a good chance this hand isn't even in his PF calling range. Against a guy who we haven't seen making any crazy plays, I think it's a pretty easy fold.

I think this is the case .

First look at hand and I'm presuming villain very likely has 77 (or possibly 55).

Pre flop: You need to be making your raise bigger here in my opinion. If CO or the button calls then you're out of position with a hand that isn't too strong on most flops.

Flop: Standard c-bet from you and check-call from villain. Villains hand range is still pretty wide right about now but I'm cancelling out all big PP's down to and including 88. I think with a hand like this he'd be raising in this spot (and even pre flop for that matter!). Flush draw with suited connectors is possible but I think he'd be raising again in this situation with that sort of a hand.

Turn: 5 hits and his check-raise looks very strong in my opinion. He's either trying to push you off a missed AK or AQ hand or is protecting/building the pot for his set. However, I'm thinking most of the time it's the latter.

Overall, I'm laying this one down and putting villain on 77 or 55. The pot is getting too big and villain is showing a little too much aggression for my liking. If I had a flush draw here though, I'm definately getting it in.

Really? How big is your standard MP raise? 6x?