Stakes don't matter, winrate does.

15k hands is 2 days of grinding for some players, doesn't really indicate anything other than the fact that you sat in a chair and clicked some buttons for a few hours.

Put another way, that's 12 buyins. 12 buy-in downswings are not unusual at all, 12 buy-in upswings are even more common even if you're "truly" a 1 bb/100 winner. Play around with the variance calculator https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

If you have it simulate 15k hands, and give the "true" winrate to be 0bb/100, you'll see that a winrate of 8 bb/100 is within the 70% confidence interval

That said, with 8 ev bb/100 over 15k hands, it's probably more likely than not that you're not a big loser

If losing $500 wouldn't be a big deal for you, it would probably be fine to play 25nl. I think a lot of people take "grinding" a little too seriously, and feel like they have to beat the "levels" of poker by grinding 200k hands at each stake, which isn't necessary for everyone (i.e. if you can afford to lose it)

What does that have to do with anything? How quickly others get to a certain number?

Yeah I will go up to 25NL shortly I think, was able to beat that to 100NL in the past over around 3 years so the fact I have been able to get back into it and have some success is giving me confidence to put some extra cash in and step up quicker.

I honestly thought the game down here would be insanely tougher 5 years on since I last grinded online. But its just as bad the play as ever, maybe worse now with these lockdowns as everyone is pushed to online platform.

read that more carefully again!

if u r looking for reassurance that you are playing great and destined for greater things after 15k hands and 8bb in this forum - forget it - your # hands is still missing a zero at the end and winrate is missing one more digit

u cannot escape math when playing poker

if u think/feel good about yourselves and have enough BR - play 10nl with 250$ or 25nl with 750$ - no point grinding 5nl

There is no hope for you son. Amen.

Sure stakes matter! At 200nlz edges are much more tiny so swings will be bigger.

Stakes matter only insofar as they affect winrates. A 3 bb/100 5nl winner and a 200nl 3bb/100 winner experience equal variance over time

Been able to gamble for a living for 8 years without a deep understanding of it so you're wrong.

You can't escape it and I don't. But I also don't need to know it deeply. Many others around willing to help with it and will understand it better than I ever will. Not possible to know everything about everything and many different ways to be a winner in gambling that don't always include deep understanding of the other disciplines needed. Obv need to have some knowledge of it though.

Thanks for the info on the sample size though. Will keep going to 30k hands if at this win rate and go up. Thanks.

Cheers for not being a ****/ helpful on this thread so far. Nice to know the site isn't overrun with arrogant know it alls.

I've always been taught that this isn't true and I also believe the above isn't true because a nit can have a standard deviation of 70 something whereas a LAG can get to over 100. Perhaps that's wrong and feel free to show why.

That makes sense to me. Doesn't necessarily have to do with the stakes though

Your argument in the post I quoted was stakes don't matter. It also does address stakes since sd is a thing at 5nl and 200nl . Going to the pokerdope link that you provided earlier, you can see radical differences in the graphs when changing standard deviation from 75 to 100.

I should've just looked at that link prior to posting earlier

I'm really confused. I was agreeing with DDP's point:
But TakeItiletyou said not at LOL stakes

Even though a 200nlz 3bb winner is a better player than a 10nl 3bb winner, that doesn't make them less immune to variance in their own stakes. Standard deviation does obviously affect that, but standard deviation changes more as a function of playstyle, rather than how much money is in the pots you play

That's not true. Rake is a huge factor at these micro games.

Your winrate at 10NL and 100NL will be similar because the rake is 10BB+ at 10NL and around 5BB at 100NL.

So the although the skill level is higher at higher limits - the rake negates it and win rates are similar.

Update: 25k hands now, mixing in some 25NL and winrate overall is 15.60BB/100. I know sample way too small still and thats cool but its the most I can do, I'm playing every day and I can only 4 table, I've tried Zoom but I just can't get it to work for me. I'm a bit blind without any reads and I get a bit lost with the speed of it. So full ring 4 tabling best I can do.

Had a hand just now that I'm not sure how I feel about it in the end, let me know what you think:

iPoker - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 369.6 BB
MP: 98.6 BB
MP+1: 99 BB
MP+2: 99.6 BB
CO: 61.72 BB
Hero (BTN): 134.32 BB
SB: 90.04 BB
BB: 197.4 BB
UTG: 111.36 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has As Ad
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop : (9 BB, 3 players) Qh Jh Tc
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 8.56 BB, SB calls 8.56 BB, BB calls 8.56 BB

Turn : (34.68 BB, 3 players) 4c
SB checks, BB bets 47.88 BB, fold, fold

BB wins 80.84 BB

It sounds like hell.

what am I missing here?
25NL, 15bb win rate - you are asking about a std AA in Multiway pot in position on a dynamic board??? that too the Chinese water torture called full ring???

this spot must have occurred a million times within 25k hands
what gives?

Do wish I could play more yeah. If Australia would stop being ****wits and allow us to play online problem solved. But I can't and I know my limitations as far as playing Zoom.

Update: still going at 10BB/100 about 37k hands in. Have hit a rough patch last 15k hands or so. Went through a period of not flopping any sets and especially not in 3bet pots. Now starting to get some hands but you just can't get anyone off their hand/don't hold up when they call. Feels like just Insta get there on the turn.

I know I haven't been playing the best which is the only thing I can control but the run of cards and having to make big folds has me now in disbelief that they can have it every time. The last two big pots I stacked off after they shoved into me and I knew they had it but I just couldn't handle the thought of folding again. Tried to look back at some old hands as can see hole cards on ignition to make sure I wasn't going crazy. Sadly few and far between has opponents hole cards showing.

I'm in such a head **** space atm of being concerned that I'm getting bluffed and folding big hands that clearly beat. I think in reality there is little bluffing at these levels apart from the hyper aggro fish that come along. Motivation so low to grind out hands when just relentless kicks to the head in big spots.

For the last 5 years I've been trading sports full time, playing with stakes many thousands of multiples higher than I'm playing now on ignition and yet, it mentally cripples me when things dont go well for a few days playing. Probs worth taking a bit of a break and coming back to it. Do want to keep grinding part time again just small stakes because can get paid in Bitcoin and well I would still be doing it had online poker not been banned here few years back.

Have enquired about some coaching to sharpen up my 6max so can look at some Zoom to play volume. Anyone have any recommendations, found a few online have messaged them this morning.

P.s. I see dubakkur wrote something but I have him ignored so if he can see this then I don't know what you've written pal, I choose not to engage with wankers who live in their mum's basements at 30 years old.