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Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW)

02-24-2010 , 07:29 AM
Hello!

I've had some sick swings in the last time and I would like to find out if that's b/c or variance or b/c I've started playing badly. I would like to know what ppl think about this graph and situation in general.

I know that my Non-SD winning suck but that's not the greatest issue right now. The problem is that I have sessions where i win/loose up to 4-8BI. I play 12 tables and my sessions are 90 - 105min long. I would like to know if loosing/winning 4-8BI per session is standart?

I play 25NL. I start tables a lot and play HU/SH b/c of that. Avg. players at the table is 7.4 this month. I've played 68k hands so far this month. I play pretty tight. 12/10 w 8-9 players and 15.5/14 overall(7.4 players on average)





Is having such swings normal or am I doing smth wrong? Like overplaying 1pair hands and stuff?
If I'm overplaying TPTK and overpair hands and still make money with them I don't mind having such swings as long as I'm making money w those hands.

Any suggestions how to find out what's wrong w my game?


Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 07:41 AM
When you play a lot of HU/SH while starting tables your variance will be higher by defaut. Not sure if 4-8BI swings during one session are really that normal tbh. It could be the case but I had not a lot of 4-5BI swings when I played NL25 (8 tabling).

I mean you obv run pretty poor All IN EV wise so you should be not that upset at all with your results (easy saying I know).

I think a good start would be to post your position stats here on direct in the Graph&Stats Thread.

Without much more info then looking at your graphs I guess you get it sometimes rly thin in marginal spots. But that is really just a guess w/o sample HH or anything else.
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 07:53 AM
yeah..i think playing too many marginal spots could be the problem...but i don't know how to filter those spots in HEM b/c everything filter I set still showed good winrates
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 07:58 AM
At first you should look over the winning summay according to hand strenght (non-pair, 1 pair, 2 pair, etc.).

When you not spot out anything you should just go over your biggest winners/losers this month and see if your line was in review really that good.

Just keep in mind that even you won a hand doesn`t mean you played it good and vice versa

Last edited by ready 2 win; 02-24-2010 at 08:16 AM. Reason: english suxs sometimes lol
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 01:59 PM
Looks to me like you are just having a little 20k breakeven stretch. The EV graph shows your bankroll still marching upwards on about the same trendline as before, so I wouldn't be too concerned.

Of course, you should always be trying to get better. Keep an eye on situations where your stack gets deep; be aware of the things that change in this situation.
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 02:10 PM
Positional stats + hand value at showdown would be helpful.

This is still a pretty small sample tbh... That's like 2.5ptbb right?
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 03:51 PM
yeah..around 2ptbb..

i found out that i'm loosing in spots where i have hands like QQ on Axx board or TT on Kxx board..i put too much money in w sencond pair hands..imo that could be the problem..i also started folding more against raises where I would otherwise call/raise. i don't think i save or win more money by folding in those spots but it's definitely less variance w the same winrate...
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 05:07 PM
why are u mad with results?
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 05:29 PM
I play against you every day, I'm pretty sure you 3 bet to light oop to much and kinda **** yourself since you're oop and I know that you are 3 betting lightly its a bit easier to float you. Plus im playing 20 tables if I can notice that I'm sure some other dumb regs can notice it. Just my input from what I've seen
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashipsomewhere
I play against you every day, I'm pretty sure you 3 bet to light oop to much and kinda **** yourself since you're oop and I know that you are 3 betting lightly its a bit easier to float you. Plus im playing 20 tables if I can notice that I'm sure some other dumb regs can notice it. Just my input from what I've seen
Thanks for the input. Who are u on stars?
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Skaloni
why are u mad with results?
i'm not mad with results..i'm just wondering if having such swings is normal or is it smth that i should worry about
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 06:11 PM
looks like its just varrience although I don't trust pt3 ev charts, not sure about holdem manger. I'd repost your graph after another 100,000 hands. You have solid showdown winnings so I don't know if having -8 bi's sessions is normal. I have -8+8 buyin sessions quite a bit but my redline is break even which makes up for my sub par showdown rate and gives me crazy varrience. You might be giving up on too many pots but it looks like its just varrience. Again, wait another 100k hands.
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobStal
Thanks for the input. Who are u on stars?
I don't give out my screen name. heheh
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zocketpocket
I don't give out my screen name. heheh
i know u anyway you're stars sn is very very very secret and no one could ever guess it
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashipsomewhere
I play against you every day, I'm pretty sure you 3 bet to light oop to much and kinda **** yourself since you're oop and I know that you are 3 betting lightly its a bit easier to float you. Plus im playing 20 tables if I can notice that I'm sure some other dumb regs can notice it. Just my input from what I've seen
never mind..i just understood who you are
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-24-2010 , 06:44 PM
I play about the same length of sessions but I'm only 4 tabling (sometmies 6, sometimes 4, probably averages to 4 or so). I rarely ever have more than a 2 BI win or loss per session and I don't even get many 2 BI win/loss sessions. I'm not a nit either. Are you playing more laggy now?

Garon
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-25-2010 , 01:12 AM
Love Gisele!
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-25-2010 , 03:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garon
I play about the same length of sessions but I'm only 4 tabling (sometmies 6, sometimes 4, probably averages to 4 or so). I rarely ever have more than a 2 BI win or loss per session and I don't even get many 2 BI win/loss sessions. I'm not a nit either. Are you playing more laggy now?

Garon
hmm i wouldn't say i'm more laggy now..i still play pretty tight..tigher than you saw me playing when we had a sweat session. But I've changed some things in my game(improved some aspects imo)..i think i have to focus on improving my game and avoiding too marginal spots against fish..
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote
02-25-2010 , 05:59 AM
Saw NSFW warning so came in... I do not approve of the womenz itt.

Goodbye
Am I having sick variance problems or am I playing really bad?(with graphs and hot chicks-NSFW) Quote

      
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