All in call on non-nut flush draw? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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All in call on non-nut flush draw?

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09-06-2009 , 11:33 PM

logisti

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 189

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($15.11)
BB ($5.56)
UTG ($5.92)
UTG+1 ($10.08)
Hero ($9.15)
MP1 ($5)
MP2 ($3.17)
CO ($4.90)
BTN ($8.11)

Dealt to Hero 7

UTG calls $0.10, fold, Hero calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, fold, CO checks, fold, SB calls $0.05, BB checks

FLOP ($0.60) T

SB bets $0.20, BB folds, UTG calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, MP1 raises to $2.90, CO calls $2.85, SB folds, UTG calls $2.70

Of note: this is a cap table, so everyone is "all in" at $3

I'm a little fuzzy on how pot odds weigh against a low pot equity, or whether I should be factoring in guesswork, like a sneaking suspicion maybe someone has a better flush draw... or if I should just go by the math -- but first and foremost, I'm not sure what the mathematically correct thing to do here *is*... call or fold?

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09-06-2009 , 11:41 PM

High_SocietyA9

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 2,475

9.5:2.7 is what 3.5:1? Or it's close and hitting your flush is 38:9 so basically you are almost getting expressed odds, I don't know of a way to mathematically evaluating the EV(ness) of someone having a bigger flush. But solely on pot odds it's a snap call.

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09-06-2009 , 11:44 PM

logisti

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 189

Thanks for the quick reply. I did call and UTG had AJ of clubs, flush didn't come though. So mathematically this is a correct call even though I don't have the nut draw and don't have much invested in the pot?

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09-06-2009 , 11:56 PM

High_SocietyA9

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 2,475

Quote:

Originally Posted by logisti

I'm looser than most and play my hands strong than I should and therefore I overplay hands and it costs me money. But generally I play little flushes almost the same as nut flushes. While this sounds like an excuse, it has a little bit of logicial backing and that is that the chances of both players having the same two suits and the board containing 3 of those suits are more rare.

Does anyone know the chances of that, given a heads up/3 way/4 way pot?

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09-07-2009 , 12:16 AM

logisti

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 189

The main reason I'm curious about the odds of someone else drawing to flush the same suit doesn't apply to this hand, but in general you will always get the most action from another flush. If the flush comes then even people who flopped sets might fold to pressure, where another flush will keep reraising unless the board is paired. You're probably right though, that the probability is so low that you can't really change your game for it.

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09-07-2009 , 12:23 AM

gonzalo86

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,578

pretty sure this belongs in the FR section

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