Ok I had a feeling he wasn't folding the flop to a raise.

That said, do you call the turn?

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $68.30
UTG: $32.50
Hero (MP): $52.80
CO: $75.90
BTN: $50.40
SB: $62.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with A K
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, SB calls $2.25, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($10.00) 5 J T (4 players)
SB bets $5, BB calls $5, UTG folds, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($25.00) 5 (3 players)
SB bets $19.50, BB folds, Hero calls $19.50

River: ($64.00) T (2 players)
SB bets $31.50, Hero folds

I raise the flop and get it in.
As played the turn is a fold. You now have less outs, maybe none and your implied odds are not enough to continue.

you have to raise this flop. well, if you like money. you shouldn't be looking for folds here. you've got great equity against each of their possible ranges. this is a ridiculously wide range i've given them here, as you didn't supply any reads, and they look ridiculously donkish.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,058,082 games 0.350 secs 11,594,519 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.242% 25.41% 00.84% 1031002 33900.50 { TT+, 55, KJs+, 98s, 8h7h, KJo+, QJo, JTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 27.484% 24.94% 02.54% 1012129 103183.50 { TT+, 55, AKs, AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AKo, AJo, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 46.275% 44.40% 01.87% 1801905 75962.00 { AhKh }

I agree, you gotta be willing to put your money in on the flop here.

Either call flop and fold turn, or raise flop and get it all in.

Calling the flop then calling a chunky bet when you didn't improve is a mistake IMHO.

Why does that matter? You have 12 outs to the nuts and possibly 6 more outs for overcards. Raise the flop and get it in.

As played you have lost a ton of equity when the turn blanks and have to fold.

actually no.
since you didnt post any info on him I dont know what to say about flop play

You should always raise this flop 100bb deep, the only time i would even consider calling the flop is if the bb lead the flop.

Raise the flop 4 sure. Commit yourself with a big potsized bet. to 25$. Do you have stats or other reads on him? The turn is bad for you so fold.

raise the flop and call a shove, as played (which is really bad) fold the turn

As everyone has already said, calling flop was really bad. We are raising this flop for so much more than FE. First, we are ahead of QQ and TPTK and only barely behind (~45%) AA and top 2-pair. We can get it in here without much concern.

More importantly, a raise on the flop has a huge impact on our implied odds as playing a FD passively does not get paid off and hitting the A or K only gets action when behind. Your Q outs were the only decent implied odds outs once you hit.

Finally, you DO have FE...take the shot.

Yeah, call the turn and fold the river. You almost have pot odds for that call and implied odds aren't zero.

What jouster said is correct.

On the flop you're barely behind the top of his range.

4 guys seeing the flop
3 guys the turn

there are sets possible and you are getting 4:1 for a call on the flop for the nutflush. when it's mathematically correct it's like never wrong to call just because the odds are that good.

as played fold the turn. you are getting like 2,x : 1 and the board paired so you may be drawing dead already (or having like 1 out with the Qh).

If you get it in on the flop i see you flipping at max as you fold out top pair hands and eventually two pair with a push. So you have 4 queens and the F DO as outs. Here it's about liking variance or not... if you like coinflips and feel lucky ship it.. else just call the flop and fold the turn.

the times where i would push here is when you are heads up on the flop and you feel like you have fold equity.

This is close to a semi-orgasmic flop for this hand. It is not sufficient to say that any given line is EV+ because every non-fold line is EV+ (I assume you mean its EV+ when you say its "never wrong").

Assorted other comments: The action is 3-way on the flop at the time of our decision not 4-way. Folding out TP hands is a good thing.

yes the action is 3way but the fact alone 4 ppl saw the flop sux. And most likely they called it with Pocketpairs and someone very likely made a set. and against a set it's a coinflip or you are a slight underdog as you got like zer0 fold equity against them if you push here..


as i said if you like variance there's nothing wrong with pushing but if you have some aggressive bankrollmanagement and don't like to gamble that much it's very nice to call this drawing hand in a 3 way pot while getting the right odds to do so

and why is folding out top pair hands good? that hands are the one where we have very good equity against. the sets are the ones where we are flipping at best(!!) as they have the chance to turn into full houses too.

On the flop, yes sets are in the range but those ranges are still very wide. The donk lead is a bit concerning but we are not far behind anything so raising lets us take control of the hand...this means we often get a free turn if we want it and gives us the implied odds benefits I mentioned initially.

I ignore variance...if we aren't rolled to ignore it then we aren't playing optimal poker.

Folding TP is good because we are barely ahead of it...something like 55% equity. Thus, we now "own" 55% of the pot and when they fold that goes up to 100%. Calculate the EV for a villain fold vs. a villain flop shove when they have TP here...we do better with the fold.