Titan No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25/$0.50 (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

MP2 ($50.95)
MP3 ($82.30)
CO ($66.26)
Button ($51.57)
SB ($55.75) (Hero)
BB ($50.86)

Playing about 200 hands on the table but got about 1000 hands from each in my PT-database.
I was running at 19/16/2 no moves no tricky play

MP2 Tag with 25/20/2
CO 11/8/1 very nitty

So whats my play with AKs here. Can i find a fold here - i think CO´s range is QQ+ and the tag in utg can also get a hand.
Are fold or 4 bet/call the only two options here? Dont think that 4 bet/fold is an option

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K

MP2 Raise to 2; CO raise to 7; Hero?

If your read says that the CO doesn't 3 bet light, just fold. Your out of position against a nit that has shown a lot of strength. Your equity against his range sucks.

I wouldn't feel bad about folding here with a good read. You are certainly not "ahead" of the 3 better and who knows if you are ahead of the intial raiser. If you hit the flop and the nit was playing QQ, you probably won't get paid off much since there will be an overcard. Plus you are OOP.

Calling sucks, 4 betting is too dangerous, folding is the only option IMO.

Im 4-betting to 17, it's +EV i think. But, really, folding is an option too. Calling is definitely sucks.

id go AI, MP is for folding much of the 20% hands hes raising with in MP. I expect CO to fold to and this is why.

IMO really nitty players tend to freak out when they get action, in my experience,they think: what would I be raising with if I was in his position ( in his mind prob AA KK) so he folds pretty much anything else than AA KK....problem here is knowing his 3betting range...there I cant help you im not there yet

In the original post he gave the CO range as QQ+ in this spot.

There are 6 combinations of QQ, 3 combinations KK, and 3 combinations of AA. If the villain will fold queens you end up with the following EV calculation

You win $4.875 each he folds QQ

2 + 7 + .75 = 9.75

When he calls with AA and KK you win about 23% of the time, for an EV of -27.
-55.50 + .23( 114.00 )) = -27

.5 * 9.75 + .5 * -27 = -8.625

So if he doesn't call with you EV is -8.625, if he does call with QQ you EV is
-55.50 + .34( 114 ) = -16.74

If the 3 bettors range is AK and QQ+ pushing all in will be -.75 EV, if he only calls with AA and KK. That is your best case scenario.

Playing AK fast against this type of opponent is not your best move. To beat a nit like this, you need to steal his blinds, 3 bet light, and not pay his set mining off. Getting into a pf raising war with AKs is playing to his strengths.

Yes, considering we will be OOP and aren't that likely to get paid off when ahead on A/K hi boards, calling isn't really an option. This is pretty much a fold, barring a read that the nitty villain has a different 3bet range than you would expect for an 11/8.

.meh. your right :P