Is this still a shove even with the UTG raise and the nit? I would against any other players.

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 226.8 BB
UTG: 106.26 BB (26/20/10 over 2k+, brokenstack regfish.)
MP: 121.16 BB
CO: 105.66 BB
BTN: 87.78 BB (19/8/3 over 360 hands, Squeeze 1/26, brokenstack nit.)
Hero (SB): 162.26 BB 20/17/7, no problem cold 4b normally but the nit squeeze threw me off

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, BTN raises to 13.5 BB

Yeah ship. It's interesting but the bigger sizing's make you more likely to ship not less likely since there's so much dead money.

Would probably sigh fold and literally only ship AKs/KK+ (when I’m playing my best).
Often I would just jam though (and curse my luck when BTN nit has AA/KK.
Best case scenario is you run it against two TT-QQ and drill the triple up.

Edit: pretty confident this is QQ+ always from BTN.

ez rip

I think you can fold given button's stats, would jam if he was normal

We actually went over this in the other thread but you can't be confident at all that this is QQ+.

26 attempts on a 360 hand sample is almost nothing. To give you an idea I'll take an excerpt out of Uri exploitative course.

In order to get an accurate Fold BTN to BB3BET % with a margin of error of 5% and a 95% confidence level. You would need an almost 35k hand sample.

We could get even more deep into it and start using bunching as well.

UTG 3x open. The odds of him having an Ace or King in his hand is about 50%. We have AK. That immediately makes AA/KK unlikely for BTN.

Even if Villain has a hand like JJ. He is either flipping or crushed by our range and calling it off would be negative EV.

So maybe I should reverse my statement and say that most of the time I am playing awesome and just jam and get stacked, while the odd time I’m playing really bad and nit fold the likely close to 0EV spot.

JJ is a pure fold here pre btw. Even in GTO land.

Not quite with this action pre actually.
But very similar spots like UTG open, MP/CO 3b, JJ is sb is just a fold.
Looking at a spot like this is pretty similar imo.

(Yes, I understand AKo is better than JJ here given blockers, etc.)

I'm concerned that the BTN is hardly ever folding for an extra 74BB, and I think they both need to fold a lot here for a shove to be breakeven or better, considering rake is also involved when there's a call.

I folded in the game and they actually both got it in.

I ask weird question, given hand is played on holidays, when pool is worse to play in general, does it make this hand more of a fold?

So how bad would your equity have been?

43% in this case before rake. The BTN had TT, which I don't think he would have folded to a the 74BB shove as a broken stack. The UTG would have definitely folded his hand to a shove.

This is exactly why we can't say he has QQ+ here based on small samples.

I wasn’t saying it was like guaranteed or something, but that’s often what it will be.
Even in this basically best case scenario it’s getting in 88 bb with 43% instead of folding .5 bb.

I am not saying I’m completely right, but I think this is a more grim spot than most see it.

I agree with most of what you posted, but I also think it’s very possible to make some assumptions based on how general population plays as well. If general population is under 3b’ing by a fair margin, and this guy is 3% in a 360 hand sample it starts to paint a picture.

I definitely don’t need or want anything close to 5% error and 95% confidence levels when I’m making these assumptions either.

I agree, but the issues are that he probably isn't going to turn out to be a spaz who is squeezing much as a bluff, and I don't think he's going to fold enough because of his stack size. 43% is best case (edit: except for when he has AK as well, and we're still behind that because he can have AKs) when the money goes in, so doesn't the BTN have to fold like 30% of the time just to get us to breakeven? Not taking into account the rake and the occasional call from BB, UTG, and the cold caller.

We need to put more mathematical rigor into the discussion. First you need a binomial calculator and then you need to figure out what your confidence interval needs to be.

I'm not an expert in statistics but I'll try to help you out.

If n = 26 and x = 1

And we say his true 3bet % is 5%.

If the true 3bet % is 5%. Then there would be a 73%-74% chance of producing a sample greater than 1/26.



Hopefully the smart people on the forum can confirm I did that correctly.

This is a standard 5% range.



Basically. A sample of 26 isn't very useful and we can't make any major deviation's (like folding AK) from it. We could make small deviations like folding very low/zero EV hands here though.

I think you are over estimating the sample size. You can't assume he never folds to a shove because you can't assume his true 3bet % is 3% or even close it.

I changed the true 3bet % to 3% and the confidence level starts getting closer to a coin flip.

He's still only folding 20/66 of those hands to a shove imo, which is 30%, which is breakeven without rake, and assuming that the other 3 people left to act always fold.

I thought when you want to figure out your fold equity, you'd look at the equity of your hand vs the range they'd call you with. Not the range they 3bet with.

In the screenshot below, I gave villain a calling range of JJ+ and AK.

You can't know this. You can't know he is 100% calling TT/JJ.

Also you have to calculate how much you win when they fold. You win 20.5BB when they all fold.

Anyways I'm done posting in this thread I've made my case. If you think AK is a fold then fold it.

I don't know that he's always calling. I just believe that's he's on an 87BB stack and a call is more likely than if he had 100BB. Is that logic incorrect?