AK facing heat on a paired low board
04-05-2015
, 01:01 PM
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 104 BB
SB: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 13)
BB: 75.5 BB
UTG: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP: 113 BB (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 4.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
CO: 95 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K
A
fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 4 7 4
BB bets 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB
Turn: (27.5 BB, 2 players) 9
BB bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB
River: (53.5 BB, 2 players) A
BB bets 50.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 50.5 BB
Calling range against MP open: QQ-22, AJs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo+ (126 combinations).
We need to defend about 60% against a pot size bet (because villain still has equity when called, it's not enough simply to deny him immediate profit), so that's 75 combinations
Folding 1/4rd of the time to a half pot bet on the turn means we have 55 combos.
Folding 40% of the time to a pot bet OTR means we're calling with around 30 combos.
30 best combos obviously include AK OTR, but should I have folded flop or turn? In theory, defending 75 combinations means we should defend something like QQ-44, AKs, 87s, AKo which is 74 combos (fold 33 and 22 because they're too weak...if the board double pairs they're crap and villain has huge equity with any two against them).
On that basis, turn should be a fold now with AK, even against a half pot bet? Since it's near the bottom of our range. So I butchered this one? I should have called something like QQ-66, 44, 87s (52 combinations), then called 30 of those OTR which would make: QQ-JJ, 99, 77, 44. Looks pretty nitty to only call with overpairs and boats but the math seems to back it up?
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 104 BB
SB: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 13)
BB: 75.5 BB
UTG: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP: 113 BB (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 4.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
CO: 95 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K
A fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 4
7 4 BB bets 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB
Turn: (27.5 BB, 2 players) 9
BB bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB
River: (53.5 BB, 2 players) A
BB bets 50.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 50.5 BB
Calling range against MP open: QQ-22, AJs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo+ (126 combinations).
We need to defend about 60% against a pot size bet (because villain still has equity when called, it's not enough simply to deny him immediate profit), so that's 75 combinations
Folding 1/4rd of the time to a half pot bet on the turn means we have 55 combos.
Folding 40% of the time to a pot bet OTR means we're calling with around 30 combos.
30 best combos obviously include AK OTR, but should I have folded flop or turn? In theory, defending 75 combinations means we should defend something like QQ-44, AKs, 87s, AKo which is 74 combos (fold 33 and 22 because they're too weak...if the board double pairs they're crap and villain has huge equity with any two against them).
On that basis, turn should be a fold now with AK, even against a half pot bet? Since it's near the bottom of our range. So I butchered this one? I should have called something like QQ-66, 44, 87s (52 combinations), then called 30 of those OTR which would make: QQ-JJ, 99, 77, 44. Looks pretty nitty to only call with overpairs and boats but the math seems to back it up?
