No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($28.51)
BB ($25.81)
UTG ($28.17)
UTG+1 ($18.60)
MP1 ($18.60)
MP2 ($5.24)
MP3 ($28.30)
CO ($21.11)
Button ($3.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
UTG bets $0.60, 6 folds, Hero raises $1.90, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.40

Flop: ($4.20) J, K, J (2 players)
Hero bets $3, UTG raises $8, Hero ???


villain 17/13 utg raise 10 fold to 3bet 0 fold to cbet 20, raise cbet 40%. I did 3bet, maybe a little too low, because of his ft3bet, which is pretty obv. What's the best line here?

How many hands are the stats over? And how many hands has he been in 3bet and cbet situations? It was pretty tricky at first but the stats are making it easier, but I can't help but think your sample size is too small to be able to take all those stats at face value. They still may help but I need to know how much I can trust them.

yeah you're right the sample is too small, I have 192 hands on him, but ft3bet and raise cbet in 3bet pot is in fact over 2 hands. Numbers are huge but really not that rellevant I can see now

He doesn't top off, he doesn't appear positionally aware and that leads me to think he's kind of fishy. We have tptk on a paired board in a 3-bet pot. If he has AA, KK or JJ (or the less likely AJ/KJ), welp, that's life, but I'm not folding here given villains stack size. The board is a bit wet as well so he can also have draws. Just 3-bet and get it in.

@ Teppec

What do you mean with doesn't top off? We are talking about NL20 and about UTG not UTG+1. Did I miss something?

I don't understand the 'top off' phrase, but I see a point in getting it in. Does the fact that we're both a little deeper change something?

Your 3bet is a little small and your c-bet is a little big. I usually cbet ~12-14bb as a standard vs reggy villains in 3b pots. Reason is that you can easily get the money in by the river with that sizing and it makes betting to collect dead money when you miss a whole lot cheaper. As for the hand 3bet/get it in on flop. If you were in position I don't mind a call since he appears to be very bluff happy according to his stats, but since you are oop and the board pretty wet just get it in.

Haha, my bad, I was half asleep when I was looking this over and thought the hand was with UTG+1, not UTG and that it was NL25 and not NL20, which ends up making a little bit of a difference when evaluating villain. Sorry about that.

That makes postflop a bit stickier, but we can't really hate this flop when we 3-bet, we just can't. Villain would have had to open/flat a Jx hand utg (unlikely, not a ton of those in a 10% opening range and even less that want to call a 3-bet) or flat the 3-bet with 6x combos of AA, one of KK or one of JJ (a possibility). However, given his other stats, I just don't see how we can fold here. I also don't like calling because there's going to be so much money in on the turn we're probably calling most bets anyway, so I'd prefer to just bet/3-bet the flop.

Assuming the villains stats are over any kind of significant sample (no folding to 3-bet, no folding to cbet, and raising lots of cbets), he can be bluffing pure air, or semibluff draws, in addition to the hands destroying us (AA/KK/JJ/Jx). If he's raising cbets that much, his postflop agg is probably pretty high also. Again, sample size dependent though.

Given everything, I'm a big fan of bet/3-betting. Get it in.

thx guys, that's just what I did