villian is 33/22/7%3bet
seems like a solid player
should i cbet flop?
is it credible to bet the turn?
if i get called do i just give up


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($50)
BB ($59.95)
UTG ($49.05)
UTG+1 ($49.35)
CO ($86.75)
BTN ($58.60)

Dealt to Hero A K , fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Hero raises to $6.50, BB calls $6, fold, fold

FLOP ($16) Q 5 8

Hero checks, BB checks

TURN ($16) Q 5 8 8

Hero ???

What do you think his range is once he calls your 3bet?

mid pocket pairs, maybe AA that got trappy, maybe some suited bs tho unlikely

i think the question is what range does he have that checks back
i dont think AQ AK KK AA without diamonds checks this flop back

so its like 99-JJ that are scared and some made flushes QQ, 88, AA with A of diamonds and KK with K of diamonds, tho i think KK would be this flop

That's what I was thinking (+AQ). In that case there's not much point cbetting the flop.

Yeah, I think 99-JJ will be the biggest part of his range. If that's the case he may check back again and give you a chance to suckout, but he probably wouldn't fold to a bet so you would have to plan on firing the river as well. I think that'd still be -EV w/out reads to the contrary so I like a check.

I would cbet flop.
Will be very hard for him to play 3bet pot w/o a there.

Something like 12$ on the flop and 1/2 pot (~20$) on the turn should finish the hand.
You are risking ~37$ while he needs to shove his stack.

I fold to any resistance in this spot w/o a .

Basically after checking the flop your hand is kind of face up and you can not represent anything. IMHO.

If his range is mainly {88-QQ, AQ} then about 75% of his hands either have a pair+diamond or TPTK+ on the flop. He's also not necessarily going to fold 99-JJ no diamond to a cbet. So you'd have to widen his range a ton for cbetting to be feasible.

if u c-bet here, u have to have a plan for the turn. if not c/f is best option

I give up on the flop almost every time. The board is terrible for you and his range is very strong.

It's not criminal to c/f here.

What is the range for your cbetting OOP on such flop?
You can not cbet this with big hands/big draws only. You will be exploited easily (unless you are willing to craise bluff such flops).

Q high is obv sucks for AK in 3bet pot, but the monotone board helps up to balance our bets.

The opponent must have a hand or willing to bluff his stack to win this pot.
Can you call two streets (risking river shove) with JJ or AQ no diamond on this board (if you were the opponent)?

Maybe my whole attitude is wrong, but I cant see myself cbetting only with big hands on monotone boards.

I'd generally cbet on that flop if I hadn't 3bet pre.

He'd have to fold those hands like over 90% of the time for it to be +EV considering the rest of his range.

Not too sure about the 90%...
Next time you will 3bet pre and the board will flop the same, but instead of holding black AK you will hit a set, over pair+ flush etc...
How do you expect to get value from your hand?

Your cbet on monotone board gives you to option to cbet it when you do actually connect with the flop.

Exploited easily, hah, elaborate please!

1) this spot comes up very rarely
2) our hand is weak, opponents range very strong
3) other players, who bluff there, are balancing for us
4) poker is a game of limited information, they can never tell if we're only betting good hands there

So, we will absolutely not be exploited easily, if we only bet hands we're going to stack off with. the trick is to choose a bet size that "could be" a bluff in their eyes.

also, if I bluff in these spots, it's usually because I get something extra - a read, a timing tell, a weird feeling etc. not to "balance"... esp. in micros.

1) This spot should NOT come up very rarely, unless you do not squeeze from the blinds with a range of hands against CO and BTN opening.

2) You have premium hand preflop, that missed the flop - you do not know if you are weak yet.

3) ...

4) Any observing player (not to mention using HUD) will figure out very fast that you cbet 3bet pots only with the goods.
If you want to keep your opponent with "limited info" dont make it easy on him and cbet in these spots only when connected.

Once checked the flop (on what seems like pure squeeze), there is nothing you can represent. If you plan on checking every time you miss AK and AQ, don't bother to 3bet them. As we know, both of them are drawing hands.

I would give up on QJ9tt flop or similar, but the monotone gives you great option to balance you cbets.

Well it's not 90% considering outs actually, but I think it's thin at best and significantly -EV at worst.

Bet the flop, he's not floating light/bluffing on this board here.

There is no need to make losing bluffs for balance. AsKc is pretty much the worst hand in our range on that flop if we're 3betting a tight range. If someone makes a note that you "only cbet 3bet pots with the goods" based on that hand then they'll be donating money to you in the future.

We know we're weak if he's only calling with a tight range.

Then they'll be donating money to you in the future, because we'll usually be cbetting. Also our range (assuming tight) connects with this particular flop very frequently.

Who said anything about checking every time you miss AK and AQ?

I will quote JackOfPain since he answered it way shorter than I did...
"he's not floating light/bluffing on this board here"

That's why I think cbet is +EV here, in all aspects.

Just my opinion.

I don't think he is either but he will have a real hand that he can continue just too often. His range for calling preflop is like TT+, AQ+, KQs. Can be looser, can be tighter. If any of these hands has a diamond in them, he can continue, and he continues without a diamond often as well.

and what the hell is this? We don't know if we're weak yet? Are you kidding me - wake up! Our equity is terrible against everything.

Our bet would look strong but it's a bad spot to bluff none-the-less. We will just get shoved over the top too often.

If somebody figured out that we never bluffed pure airball in This Particular spot then all they'd gain is the knowledge of us being solid. but that would take a lot of hands and a lot of analysis to figure out... and by then there would be meta and our game could change because "we know that he knows that we know that he..."

That and also we still have a degree of balance, because we'll be betting a lot of draws and possibly checking things like JJ with a diamond. But it's unlikely, because this spot is pretty specific. For example if the BB and CO folded and the button called his range would be weaker than the BB's here and we may play differently.

c/f as played, you cant really c flop and bet turn
if you cbet you have to fire multiple barrels

You all look at our cards as AKo, but think how it looks from the opponent POV.
We are 3betting OOP, and cbetting on this scary flop... We are reping huge hand/huge draw.
He can continue only if connected - i.e turn his hand face up.

So basically what you guys are all saying is that as a thumb rule, if you are in a 3bet pot, and miss the flop on monotone board (OOP), you just give up?

Sounds like fit or fold to me.

sounds like you should stop thinking only about your own hand.

our perceived range is strong but i'm not going to expect anyone to make any big folds at micros.

I do not think about my hand at all.. that's why I dont care we got AKo.
Cbet here is not for from our hand, but from the situation.

We are not expecting any big folds, but air or single pair w/o a diamond should insta muck to a cbet as his equity sucks.

Our hero started a story preflop, and should continue at least another chapter.
As said before, if we will encounter any resistance -- Im giving up.

You keep missing my point. By "sounds like you should stop thinking only about your own hand." I meant that you should think about your opponent's hand range - it's strong. You haven't mentioned that a single time.

Yes, but it doesn't happen often enough to make it ev+.

Hero should continue if it's a good spot to do so. I don't think this is.

aaand that's what I expect to happen most of the time.

my 2 cents and last post in this thread. good luck.