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AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . .

04-20-2008 , 05:41 AM
. . . then one of the worst possible turn cards fell.

Villain is 40/14/1.2 after 73 but has been losing, and it appears he's gotten LAGgier in recent hands as a result.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($50.75)
Hero ($47.75)
Button ($137.45)
SB ($64.90)
BB ($91.80)
UTG ($37.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J.
UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 3 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) J, T, 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.5, Hero raises to $11, UTG calls $8.50.

Turn: ($26.75) K (2 players)
UTG bets $13.5 . . .

Now what?
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 05:55 AM
fold. i really dont think he calls flop with total air just to bluff you on the turn. KT, KJ, KQ and flushdraws are a really big part of his range.
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 05:57 AM
He has a flush here like always.
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 06:36 AM
foldski
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JROK777
He has a flush here like always.
Wouldn't someone with a flush often go for a checkraise (or check-call, as there's only ~1 PSB bet left in our effective stacks)? In any event, at the table I was more focused on the fact that all of the flopped overs + straight draw hands had pulled ahead of me (AK/AQ/KQ). And, as empyrium mentions, KJ and KT figure to be part of his range too.

The limit player in me was also considering hands like 8d8c and AdTx for Villain, and while I can't rule those hands out, I guess that turn card probably is just too crappy to continue even with only 1 PSB left and even versus a player who seems to be tilting.

I did fold at the table, so I can't tell you what he had.

I'll add that his bustout hand was frustrating to watch, since I was thinking, "Damn, why couldn't those cards have fallen in a different order?"

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($49.25)
Hero ($50.80)
BB ($138.50)
UTG ($90.80)
MP ($60.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9.
UTG raises to $1.5, MP calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.25, 1 fold.

Flop: ($5) Q, Q, T (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.5, MP calls $2.50, Hero folds.

Turn: ($10) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, MP bets $5, UTG raises to $15, MP raises to $56.9, UTG calls $41.90.

River: ($123.80) 3 (2 players)

Final Pot: $123.80

Results:
UTG has Kh 8h (flush, king high).
MP has 6h 7h (flush, queen high).
Outcome: UTG wins $123.80.

Last edited by Nick C; 04-20-2008 at 07:24 PM.
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 07:15 PM
fold
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 07:56 PM
The only thing you can really hope to be ahead of is a weaker J. JK just got there, and I really don't think he's leading into you with 2nd pair with any J. His line is screaming strength and you don't have enough to look him up. Stack sizes suck to fold here, but I don't even think you're getting 30% equity here.
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyav
I really don't think he's leading into you with 2nd pair with any J.
I'm thinking that if Villain has, say, QdJx, he might be pleased by the outs he just picked up.

Quote:
His line is screaming strength
Yeah, maybe it is. I wasn't sure. (In limit, which I have more experience in, his turn donkbet screams, "I just picked up outs, or I made top pair/two pair and am too worried about the possible flush to try a checkraise.") And since I folded, I'll never know what he had. But the consensus here does seem to be that the fold was good.
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 08:19 PM
From what I've seen donkbets are usually: middle pairs > draws >TPWK > air > sets

As you start playing better and more competent opponents they C/R more often with draws and donk more often with sets (especially on drawy/A/K boards).

Again, just an observation from my NL2-100 experience, but that's usually what kind of hands I see from donkbets.
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote
04-20-2008 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyav
From what I've seen donkbets are usually: middle pairs > draws >TPWK > air > sets
I take it you're mostly referring to flop donkbets here? (Because based on the range you're giving to donkbets, it seems I should have called the turn if that range also applies to turn donkbets.)

Anyway, the range you gave does seem to correspond to what I've seen at NL25/NL50 for flop donkbets (although as a disclaimer I'll add that I've played much more NL25 than NL50 as I just recently moved up).
AJs at 50 NL: I thought I had committed myself on the flop, but . . . Quote

      
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