PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 106 BB
SB: 107.6 BB
BB: 238.6 BB
UTG: 145 BB
MP: 107.4 BB
CO: 77.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A J

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

No info on V - I should have fold here I guess. But I have position and his 3bet range against open raise from BU can be quite wide.

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) 4 J 4
SB bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

Turn: (39 BB, 2 players) 6
SB bets 21 BB, Hero calls 21 BB

Im blocking AJ here and I guess he wouldnt 3bet me preflop with Jx. Not happy about it but calling.

River: (81 BB, 2 players) 6
SB bets 38.8 BB

Hero? I dont see him 3barreling with Jx, flush just completed and he also can have some overpair as QQ or KK. I just cant call but I guess I should have folded much sooner.

Thoughts?

These spots are so underbluffed..

Preflop, flop and turn is fine.

His value:
A4s - 1 combo
AA - 3
KK - 6
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
=17

He gives you ~25% potodds OTR. He needs to find ~5 combos of bluffs for you to break even on a call.

To be honest I don't think you will make much money by calling OTR at the micros, but given the potodds it can't be that bad.

I'd just like to add you forgot the flushes and ops are mby not 100% bet
all in all let's say ~20-25 combos so he's allowed a couple more bluffs

I feel a +ev call down is going to depend on 2 factors
how often he barrels turn
his river bluff selection

normally he'd have to have some turn bets that are not obvious, as in they're not fds/gs. some % of overcards with a club but w/o a diamond for ex.
not having these or any underpairs to the J decreases the number of combos he'l have available to bluff river quite considerably

and then does he know he's not supposed to bluff 2 clubs otr

my point is if he doesn't barrel turn aggressively and doesn't bluff river with 2 clubs, I can't see enough bluffs. otherwise, we bluff catch. having the Ad would be way nicer..

kinda irrelevant analysis since we've no way of knowing wtf this guy betting 1/2p every street is doing.. I tend to think he's less likely to find the bluffs tho

yes but how many FDs does villain have that got their on the river? personally i think you're supposed to fold the river. Given odds though i would have a difficult time actually folding in game.