Ok so I took a strange and I think bad line on this hand. Basically I limp from MP because there are two maniacs in the SB and BB (38/38 and 27/24) and in 4 earlier hands the entire table folded to my MP/early raises with premium hands. This triggered me thinking I should get all tricky... I was almost certain my limp would get raised and if one of the maniacs did it then they would not fold to a 3b and may even PF stack off with me.

Unexpectedly the nit CO (5/4 AF1) raises. I don't like my small 3b sizing here and can't really recall why I did that.

Flop I make a standard, yet still too small value cbet and get called like I expected. Villain seemed to rarely fold to cbets and considering I'm only really afraid of JJ, that makes an even stronger case to bet big. Oops.

Turn makes me wary of QQ and maybe a flush but I thought he could still have AK, AJ, AQ and KK in his range. I figured he would have raised on the flop with JJ. At this point I expect either a fold or a raise from my bet as he either loves the board or is scared of it. I bet with the intention of folding to a raise. He calls making me think that neither JJ or QQ are in his hand but possibly the flush.

River I figure I'm beat and am hopeful he's holding AQ, KK or a missed FD. He bets back at me so small I'm tempted to call. Am I ahead >20% of the time here? He is a nit PF but looks like a station post flop and has not won a showdown yet.

Villain: 5/4 AF: 1, fcbet 0%(0/3), f3b 33% (1/3), W$SD 0/2 (75 hands)
Hero: 20/18 AF: 4, cbet 67%, 3b 7%

His 4% raising range, which may be a LITTLE looser since he's in such late position and nobody's projected power, strikes me as JJ+, KQs, AJs+, AKo.

He's not very aggressive so it's not out of the question that he'd flat pre with KK/AA or call the flop/turn with JJ/QQ instead of raising.

You're ahead of AK, AQ, KK and KQ, and that's really it. JJ, QQ, AJ have you crushed.

So I think you're beat here more than 20% of the time.

Against such a passive player you may have wanted to bet bigger on the flop.

I absolutely should have bet bigger on the flop. It had a FD possibility and he rarely fold to cbets, or at all for that matter.

I made a mistake in my original post. I meant am I ahead >20% of the time. That being ~ the amount I have to call, actually a little less. I know I'm behind >20%

bet more OTF
bet-fold more OTT
bet(small)-fold OTR.

don't limp-raise, it's ****ty play
only do it against incredibly bad players, if the reg raised you, then call him, since you disguise your hand.

any thinking player will put you on AA/KK and you will be raped in the ass since he knows your holdings.

Agree with bet more. Thing is there were incredibly bad players in the blinds. SB only had so much $ because he made a massive suck out vs 2 opponents while shipping 99 PF. They only seemed to respond to aggression with more aggression.

I don't care what your reads are. Raise it pre. If you ever limp Aces it's more than terrible.

Limp reraising AA sucks because even a fish might know what you have because.. fish invented this move and ofc all the regs know what you have.

*sigh* Perhaps I don't give agro-fish enough credit. Thankfully it was my first time ever doing this and it will be my last. I need to post these kinds of hands to embarass the occational fancy play syndrome out of me.

I would probably rather limpraise 22 as a bluff rather than AA because its just so obvious these days.

Does anyone consider c/c or c/r the flop since he's likely gonna bet his entire range which we are ahead of, but will fold all his AK/AQ to a cbet?

What's kind of funny is knowing what his hand was in the end (yes I called) suggested he didn't put me on AA or KK or he wouldn't have continued to call. This is results oriented however, and I agree that most people (even mega fish) will see AA or KK and play accordingly.

He wasn't aggressive at all so I'm not so sure he would have bet if I checked and there were two spades out there. Although not a terribly large sample he did seem to call a lot once he entered a pot.