Hi,
I made the decision to get better at poker so I start posting hands from now on.

Here I made a big fold on the river and in hindsight I think I shouldn't have folded.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $81.95
MP: $38.30
CO: $12.95
BTN: $21.10
SB: $39.60
BB: $47.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.60) 4 T 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $2.25, MP calls $2.25, BTN calls $2.25

Turn: ($9.35) 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.75, MP calls $6.75, BTN folds

River: ($22.85) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $15, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds





Reads: he ran 16/7 with 1.2 af and wasn't involved in interesting pots, he also had a ironman symbol.

My thoughtprocess was that if he had a hand linke JJ-KK there was a decent chance that he would have raised the turn or preflop. I also think that he wasn't capable of value betting QQ and JJ that big on the river, because I had a guess, that he was a weak tight nut peddler.

I thought it was a perfect spot for him to slowplay a set multiway and stack me 150++ deep.

However I think I am too biased bc of my downswing and should have b/c the river, since I play microstakes and should go for big value.

What do you think?

if nething i like a b/f than c/f here...

Note that he has like 28$ left. I kind of like the idea of making it something like half pot on the river and folding to a raise, but in these low limits I am always afraid that he thinks like: "eeh whatever I have KK lets ship the rest in"

So I lean more towards b/c or shipping it in directly, since he has only few chips more than potsize.

But your idea maybe seems best, bc he is passive.

What would a good bet on the river be? Would half the pot be fine here?

I would be like $16ish on this river and call if he raises because we have such good odds. If he was deeper, a bet/fold is OK.
I really don't like your check on this river, you need to value bet your hand until you're given a reason not to. This player hasn't showed any strength all, and you need to be getting three streets of value in this type of situation.

I think you played it fine against a player this tight, however I would be interested on what your read on the BTN was as well as that could have had some influence on MP's thinking. The river is either a check/call or a check/fold, and given villain's bet sizing it's probably a fold. I doubt that JJ would value bet the river given that you've shown strength for 2 streets in a 3 way pot, and QQ might not as well if your image was solid (was it?). Also QQ might 3bet pre, and KK would definitely 3bet so those two are less likely IMO. That leaves us with sets or maaaabye AThh (AThh is unlikely given how tight villain is).

8 on the turn and ship the river son, if he has set he has set.

^

@OP If he has a set, he would raise turn, board is getting ugly. I don't even think he would slow play set on flop because you're deep.

I know I wouldn't raise the flop/turn with a set (assuming I view the hero as TAG). What am I afraid of on the turn, a backdoor flush? This might change if BTN is a huge donk, but no reads were given on BTN, plus I would probably still smooth call anyways if this were the case because I'd want to reel BTN in as well.

Of course I'm making the assumption that MP is a thinking player, which may or may not be the case...

He's 16/7....

With an ironman symbol ^^.

Since he's 16/7 that's exactly why I'm more prone to folding. A player this tight can only have so many hands that would stay in the pot for this long, and like I mentioned earlier KK is highly unlikely since he didn't 3bet preflop and QQ is less likely for the same reason (though I'll grant he might not 3bet that pre given stack sizes and that hero raised UTG). Not to mention that I doubt JJ would value bet the river, though QQ might (assuming he doesn't 3bet QQ pre). In my mind we're either up against a brave and somewhat unlikely QQ or a set.

If villain were a fish I'd bet/ship river every time, but given the description of MP I doubt this is the case.

We raise pre-flop -> he calls
We bet the flop -> he calls
We bet the turn -> he calls

OMG HE HAS A SET CHECK/FOLD.

I like your style.

It could be a check/call if you think villain is capable of value betting JJ/QQ, though I doubt it. Regardless against this villain I'm not putting another cent in voluntarily, check/fold>check/call>bet/call>bet/fold IMO. Given villain's stats I doubt he's v-betting JJ/QQ on the river (tight, not too aggro). Note that if there was a draw on the flop then I might be much more inclined to check/call assuming the draw didn't complete since a set would probably raise at some point if that were the case and whiffed draws could be in his range.

Seriously, what range are you putting this villain on?

22, 44, 1010, 88, 99, JJ, A10,K10 so check call isn't so bad; bet fold is not so good because you invest too much into the pot;
if you check call he will try to bluff the river;

I'd throw 99 out because I think villain would fold the turn, and KT because villain is tight. AT is iffy as well since hero raised UTG (guy seems decent and should be folding this pre to an UTG raise) and I just don't see this guy v-betting that on the river if he does have it. I'd be more inclined to put QQ in the range but not give it equal weight since villain should be 3betting that preflop but may have elected not to due to stack sizes.

So that leaves us with a range of 22, 44, TT, 88, QQ, JJ, and maaaybe AT.

If we PokerStove this, at first this would seem like an easy call:

However the above range is very generous. I doubt villain has ATo ever, and ATs also seems highly unlikely. Plus we haven't account for the uncertainty of QQ (shouldn't villain 3bet preflop, and would he value bet river?) or JJ (would villain really value bet this on the river?).

By eliminating ATo (is villain really calling with that pre?), half the combos of QQ/JJ (though I feel more QQ combos should be eliminated due to the dual uncertainties of villain not 3bettting pre and v-betting river, half the combos of JJ since we're uncertain about whether villain v-bets river), and half the possible combos of ATs (though I would chuck this out all together since I doubt villain calls with this pre and probably isn't v-betting river) the situation becomes more dire:

Villain bets $15 into a $22.85 pot, meaning we need 39.6% equity against his range (we have to call $15 to win $37.85), which we don't have. Note that this doesn't even factor in the rake, plus I still feel that too much weight is being given to QQ and ATs (not to mention JJ, which I really don't think is value betting the river).