BB is a 20/18/1.5 over 120 hands and didn't seem to get out of line. This seems like a set to me, but does he have AQ enough here to justify a call?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $50.00
SB: $50.00
BB: $150.80
UTG: $31.00
Hero (MP): $51.75
CO: $56.00

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) Q 7 3 (2 players)
BB bets $3.50, Hero raises to $9, BB raises to $148.80 all in, Hero???

ewww i think its either a set or Qx hearts. Id fold... what in line TAG does this with air or even AQ? Maybe AhQx? He has it more often than he doesnt and you have no odds

In a best-case scenario you're flipping against his range, but you could easily be a dog. You need 38% equity to break even. More and a call will show a profit, less you'll be losing money. Any player notes/metagame comes in handy here.



Could he do this with the NFD/combodraws? If he can, his range is something like AQ,AJhh,AThh,QKhh,QJhh.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.889% 48.89% 00.00% 7744 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 51.111% 51.11% 00.00% 8096 0.00 { 77, 33, AQs, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, QhJh, AQo }

Dictating a call.

Remove the nutflushdraws from his range (besides AhQh)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.912% 46.91% 00.00% 6502 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 53.088% 53.09% 00.00% 7358 0.00 { 77, 33, AQs, KhQh, QhJh, AQo }

Still a call.

If he won't shove dry TPTK, only AhQh, combodraws and sets it's

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.502% 23.50% 00.00% 2094 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 76.498% 76.50% 00.00% 6816 0.00 { 77, 33, AhQh, KhQh, QhJh }

Fold.


I'm more inclined to think that a player with 1.5 AF isn't doing this with just AQ, and that he might 3bet AQ a decent ammount preflop aswell with his 20/18 stats. This makes his range lean more towards just sets and KQhh and QJhh.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.331% 19.33% 00.00% 1531 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 80.669% 80.67% 00.00% 6389 0.00 { 77, 33, KhQh, QhJh }

Fold.

Use your own judgement. You're the one that can make the most accurate range guess because you've seen him play other hands aswell.